Simulating the Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis on Welfare in Latvia
- Autores
- Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan; Haimovich, Francisco; Azam, Mehtabul
- Año de publicación
- 2012
- Idioma
- español castellano
- Tipo de recurso
- documento de trabajo
- Estado
- versión enviada
- Descripción
- This note details simulations of the distributional impacts of the 2009 financial crisis on households in Latvia. It uses household survey data collected prior to the crisis and simulates the impact of the growth slowdown. The simulations show that Latvia experienced a sharp rise in poverty, widening of the poverty gap, and a rise in income inequality due to the economic contraction in 2009. The 18 percent contraction in gross domestic product (affecting mainly trade hotels and restaurants, construction, and manufacturing) likely led the poverty head count to increase from 14.4 percent in 2008 to 20.2 percent in 2009. The poverty gap, which measures the national poverty deficit, was simulated to increase from 5.9 percent in 2008 to 8.3 percent in 2009. The analysis finds that the results are robust to most assumptions except post-layoff incomes, which substantially mitigated household welfare. The authors also simulate the impact of Latvia's Emergency Social Safety Net components and find that the Safety Net likely mitigated crisis impacts for many beneficiaries. The simulations measure only direct short-run impacts; hence, they do not take into account general equilibrium effects. Post-crisis income data from a different data source suggest that poverty rates increased by 8.0 percentage points between 2008 and 2009. As a result, the authors suggest that their ex-ante simulation performs reasonably well and is a useful tool to identify vulnerable groups during the early stages of a crisis.
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas - Materia
-
Ciencias Económicas
Simulation
poverty
crisis
social protection policies
Latvia
JEL: I31, I38, C15, H23 - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Universidad Nacional de La Plata
- OAI Identificador
- oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/129131
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Simulating the Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis on Welfare in LatviaAjwad, Mohamed IhsanHaimovich, FranciscoAzam, MehtabulCiencias EconómicasSimulationpovertycrisissocial protection policiesLatviaJEL: I31, I38, C15, H23This note details simulations of the distributional impacts of the 2009 financial crisis on households in Latvia. It uses household survey data collected prior to the crisis and simulates the impact of the growth slowdown. The simulations show that Latvia experienced a sharp rise in poverty, widening of the poverty gap, and a rise in income inequality due to the economic contraction in 2009. The 18 percent contraction in gross domestic product (affecting mainly trade hotels and restaurants, construction, and manufacturing) likely led the poverty head count to increase from 14.4 percent in 2008 to 20.2 percent in 2009. The poverty gap, which measures the national poverty deficit, was simulated to increase from 5.9 percent in 2008 to 8.3 percent in 2009. The analysis finds that the results are robust to most assumptions except post-layoff incomes, which substantially mitigated household welfare. The authors also simulate the impact of Latvia's Emergency Social Safety Net components and find that the Safety Net likely mitigated crisis impacts for many beneficiaries. The simulations measure only direct short-run impacts; hence, they do not take into account general equilibrium effects. Post-crisis income data from a different data source suggest that poverty rates increased by 8.0 percentage points between 2008 and 2009. As a result, the authors suggest that their ex-ante simulation performs reasonably well and is a useful tool to identify vulnerable groups during the early stages of a crisis.Facultad de Ciencias Económicas2012info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionDocumento de trabajohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeTrabajoapplication/pdf1-22http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/129131spainfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1813-9450info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1596/1813-9450-5960info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-09-29T11:31:02Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/129131Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-09-29 11:31:03.061SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Simulating the Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis on Welfare in Latvia |
title |
Simulating the Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis on Welfare in Latvia |
spellingShingle |
Simulating the Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis on Welfare in Latvia Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan Ciencias Económicas Simulation poverty crisis social protection policies Latvia JEL: I31, I38, C15, H23 |
title_short |
Simulating the Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis on Welfare in Latvia |
title_full |
Simulating the Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis on Welfare in Latvia |
title_fullStr |
Simulating the Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis on Welfare in Latvia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating the Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis on Welfare in Latvia |
title_sort |
Simulating the Impact of the 2009 Financial Crisis on Welfare in Latvia |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan Haimovich, Francisco Azam, Mehtabul |
author |
Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan |
author_facet |
Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan Haimovich, Francisco Azam, Mehtabul |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Haimovich, Francisco Azam, Mehtabul |
author2_role |
author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Ciencias Económicas Simulation poverty crisis social protection policies Latvia JEL: I31, I38, C15, H23 |
topic |
Ciencias Económicas Simulation poverty crisis social protection policies Latvia JEL: I31, I38, C15, H23 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
This note details simulations of the distributional impacts of the 2009 financial crisis on households in Latvia. It uses household survey data collected prior to the crisis and simulates the impact of the growth slowdown. The simulations show that Latvia experienced a sharp rise in poverty, widening of the poverty gap, and a rise in income inequality due to the economic contraction in 2009. The 18 percent contraction in gross domestic product (affecting mainly trade hotels and restaurants, construction, and manufacturing) likely led the poverty head count to increase from 14.4 percent in 2008 to 20.2 percent in 2009. The poverty gap, which measures the national poverty deficit, was simulated to increase from 5.9 percent in 2008 to 8.3 percent in 2009. The analysis finds that the results are robust to most assumptions except post-layoff incomes, which substantially mitigated household welfare. The authors also simulate the impact of Latvia's Emergency Social Safety Net components and find that the Safety Net likely mitigated crisis impacts for many beneficiaries. The simulations measure only direct short-run impacts; hence, they do not take into account general equilibrium effects. Post-crisis income data from a different data source suggest that poverty rates increased by 8.0 percentage points between 2008 and 2009. As a result, the authors suggest that their ex-ante simulation performs reasonably well and is a useful tool to identify vulnerable groups during the early stages of a crisis. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas |
description |
This note details simulations of the distributional impacts of the 2009 financial crisis on households in Latvia. It uses household survey data collected prior to the crisis and simulates the impact of the growth slowdown. The simulations show that Latvia experienced a sharp rise in poverty, widening of the poverty gap, and a rise in income inequality due to the economic contraction in 2009. The 18 percent contraction in gross domestic product (affecting mainly trade hotels and restaurants, construction, and manufacturing) likely led the poverty head count to increase from 14.4 percent in 2008 to 20.2 percent in 2009. The poverty gap, which measures the national poverty deficit, was simulated to increase from 5.9 percent in 2008 to 8.3 percent in 2009. The analysis finds that the results are robust to most assumptions except post-layoff incomes, which substantially mitigated household welfare. The authors also simulate the impact of Latvia's Emergency Social Safety Net components and find that the Safety Net likely mitigated crisis impacts for many beneficiaries. The simulations measure only direct short-run impacts; hence, they do not take into account general equilibrium effects. Post-crisis income data from a different data source suggest that poverty rates increased by 8.0 percentage points between 2008 and 2009. As a result, the authors suggest that their ex-ante simulation performs reasonably well and is a useful tool to identify vulnerable groups during the early stages of a crisis. |
publishDate |
2012 |
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2012 |
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