Prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters achievements, challenges, and future perspectives

• Autores: Sliwiska-Bronowicz, J.; Nastula, J.; Michalczak, M.; Partyka, A.; Winska, M.
• Año de publicación: 2025
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: documento de conferencia
• Materia: Ciencias Astronómicas; Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP); EOP Forecasting; Prediction Accuracy
• Institución: Universidad Nacional de La Plata

Accurate observations of Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are essential for carrying out various operational tasks, including communication with spacecraft, orientation of astronomical instruments, and ensuring precise navigation and positioning. Many operational tasks require real-time knowledge of EOP, but such information is impossible to obtain due to delays caused by the time needed to process observational data from various techniques. Therefore, many institutions worldwide, including the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), develop EOP forecasts and make them available to the community. Over the last decade, significant progress has been made in processing EOP observations, developing new forecasting methods, and understanding the role of Earth’s surface fluid distribution in EOP variability. The number of teams involved in EOP prediction has also increased, with different teams applying various input data, forecasting algorithms, and prediction horizons. As a result, clear differences have emerged in the accuracy of individual predictions. This presentation will summarize the latest achievements in EOP forecasting, particularly the outcomes of the recently concluded 2nd EOP Prediction Comparison Campaign, conducted under the auspices of IERS. We will show the current accuracy achievable in EOP forecasting and highlight the most optimal forecasting approaches (prediction methods and observational data). The challenges and future perspectives for obtaining more reliable and timely forecasts will also be discussed.
Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas