Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise
- Autores
- Cruces, Guillermo Antonio; Lanjouw, Peter; Lucchetti, Leonardo Ramiro; Perova, Elizaveta; Vakis, Renos; Viollaz, Mariana
- Año de publicación
- 2014
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- This paper validates a recently proposed method to estimate intra-generational poverty transitions through repeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows the creation of a "synthetic panel" - done by predicting future or past household income or consumption using a set of simple modeling and error structure assumptions - and thus permits the estimation of lower and upper bounds of the joint distribution of poverty and non-poverty transitions. We validate the approach in three different settings where good panel data exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, we also carry out a number of refinements to the validation procedure and expand the set of tests undertaken. The results are broadly encouraging in estimating the joint probabilities of poverty and non-poverty transitions between two periods in all three contexts. The approach is also robust to a broad set of additional “stress” and sensitivity tests, especially in cases where richer model specifications can be estimated. Finally, we test whether the scope of synthetic panels can be expanded in three new directions, namely comparing between income and consumption welfare measures; the robustness to longer intervals (the approach does especially well in predicting long-term poverty transition patterns); and the robustness to two transition lines instead of one. Overall, the results lend support to the application of this approach to settings where panel data are absent.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales - Materia
-
Ciencias Económicas
Chile
Poverty dynamics
Poverty transitions
Nicaragua
Perú
Poverty
Pseudo-panels
Synthetic panels - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Universidad Nacional de La Plata
- OAI Identificador
- oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/127146
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exerciseCruces, Guillermo AntonioLanjouw, PeterLucchetti, Leonardo RamiroPerova, ElizavetaVakis, RenosViollaz, MarianaCiencias EconómicasChilePoverty dynamicsPoverty transitionsNicaraguaPerúPovertyPseudo-panelsSynthetic panelsThis paper validates a recently proposed method to estimate intra-generational poverty transitions through repeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows the creation of a "synthetic panel" - done by predicting future or past household income or consumption using a set of simple modeling and error structure assumptions - and thus permits the estimation of lower and upper bounds of the joint distribution of poverty and non-poverty transitions. We validate the approach in three different settings where good panel data exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, we also carry out a number of refinements to the validation procedure and expand the set of tests undertaken. The results are broadly encouraging in estimating the joint probabilities of poverty and non-poverty transitions between two periods in all three contexts. The approach is also robust to a broad set of additional “stress” and sensitivity tests, especially in cases where richer model specifications can be estimated. Finally, we test whether the scope of synthetic panels can be expanded in three new directions, namely comparing between income and consumption welfare measures; the robustness to longer intervals (the approach does especially well in predicting long-term poverty transition patterns); and the robustness to two transition lines instead of one. Overall, the results lend support to the application of this approach to settings where panel data are absent.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales2014-08-15info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArticulohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdf161-179http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/127146enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1569-1721info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1573-8701info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10888-014-9284-9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-09-29T11:30:42Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/127146Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-09-29 11:30:43.139SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise |
title |
Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise |
spellingShingle |
Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise Cruces, Guillermo Antonio Ciencias Económicas Chile Poverty dynamics Poverty transitions Nicaragua Perú Poverty Pseudo-panels Synthetic panels |
title_short |
Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise |
title_full |
Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise |
title_fullStr |
Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise |
title_sort |
Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Cruces, Guillermo Antonio Lanjouw, Peter Lucchetti, Leonardo Ramiro Perova, Elizaveta Vakis, Renos Viollaz, Mariana |
author |
Cruces, Guillermo Antonio |
author_facet |
Cruces, Guillermo Antonio Lanjouw, Peter Lucchetti, Leonardo Ramiro Perova, Elizaveta Vakis, Renos Viollaz, Mariana |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Lanjouw, Peter Lucchetti, Leonardo Ramiro Perova, Elizaveta Vakis, Renos Viollaz, Mariana |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Ciencias Económicas Chile Poverty dynamics Poverty transitions Nicaragua Perú Poverty Pseudo-panels Synthetic panels |
topic |
Ciencias Económicas Chile Poverty dynamics Poverty transitions Nicaragua Perú Poverty Pseudo-panels Synthetic panels |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
This paper validates a recently proposed method to estimate intra-generational poverty transitions through repeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows the creation of a "synthetic panel" - done by predicting future or past household income or consumption using a set of simple modeling and error structure assumptions - and thus permits the estimation of lower and upper bounds of the joint distribution of poverty and non-poverty transitions. We validate the approach in three different settings where good panel data exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, we also carry out a number of refinements to the validation procedure and expand the set of tests undertaken. The results are broadly encouraging in estimating the joint probabilities of poverty and non-poverty transitions between two periods in all three contexts. The approach is also robust to a broad set of additional “stress” and sensitivity tests, especially in cases where richer model specifications can be estimated. Finally, we test whether the scope of synthetic panels can be expanded in three new directions, namely comparing between income and consumption welfare measures; the robustness to longer intervals (the approach does especially well in predicting long-term poverty transition patterns); and the robustness to two transition lines instead of one. Overall, the results lend support to the application of this approach to settings where panel data are absent. Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales |
description |
This paper validates a recently proposed method to estimate intra-generational poverty transitions through repeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows the creation of a "synthetic panel" - done by predicting future or past household income or consumption using a set of simple modeling and error structure assumptions - and thus permits the estimation of lower and upper bounds of the joint distribution of poverty and non-poverty transitions. We validate the approach in three different settings where good panel data exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, we also carry out a number of refinements to the validation procedure and expand the set of tests undertaken. The results are broadly encouraging in estimating the joint probabilities of poverty and non-poverty transitions between two periods in all three contexts. The approach is also robust to a broad set of additional “stress” and sensitivity tests, especially in cases where richer model specifications can be estimated. Finally, we test whether the scope of synthetic panels can be expanded in three new directions, namely comparing between income and consumption welfare measures; the robustness to longer intervals (the approach does especially well in predicting long-term poverty transition patterns); and the robustness to two transition lines instead of one. Overall, the results lend support to the application of this approach to settings where panel data are absent. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2014-08-15 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Articulo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
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http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/127146 |
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dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) |
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openAccess |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) |
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