Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise

Autores
Cruces, Guillermo Antonio; Lanjouw, Peter; Lucchetti, Leonardo Ramiro; Perova, Elizaveta; Vakis, Renos; Viollaz, Mariana
Año de publicación
2014
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This paper validates a recently proposed method to estimate intra-generational poverty transitions through repeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows the creation of a "synthetic panel" - done by predicting future or past household income or consumption using a set of simple modeling and error structure assumptions - and thus permits the estimation of lower and upper bounds of the joint distribution of poverty and non-poverty transitions. We validate the approach in three different settings where good panel data exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, we also carry out a number of refinements to the validation procedure and expand the set of tests undertaken. The results are broadly encouraging in estimating the joint probabilities of poverty and non-poverty transitions between two periods in all three contexts. The approach is also robust to a broad set of additional “stress” and sensitivity tests, especially in cases where richer model specifications can be estimated. Finally, we test whether the scope of synthetic panels can be expanded in three new directions, namely comparing between income and consumption welfare measures; the robustness to longer intervals (the approach does especially well in predicting long-term poverty transition patterns); and the robustness to two transition lines instead of one. Overall, the results lend support to the application of this approach to settings where panel data are absent.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales
Materia
Ciencias Económicas
Chile
Poverty dynamics
Poverty transitions
Nicaragua
Perú
Poverty
Pseudo-panels
Synthetic panels
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Repositorio
SEDICI (UNLP)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
OAI Identificador
oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/127146

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oai_identifier_str oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/127146
network_acronym_str SEDICI
repository_id_str 1329
network_name_str SEDICI (UNLP)
spelling Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exerciseCruces, Guillermo AntonioLanjouw, PeterLucchetti, Leonardo RamiroPerova, ElizavetaVakis, RenosViollaz, MarianaCiencias EconómicasChilePoverty dynamicsPoverty transitionsNicaraguaPerúPovertyPseudo-panelsSynthetic panelsThis paper validates a recently proposed method to estimate intra-generational poverty transitions through repeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows the creation of a "synthetic panel" - done by predicting future or past household income or consumption using a set of simple modeling and error structure assumptions - and thus permits the estimation of lower and upper bounds of the joint distribution of poverty and non-poverty transitions. We validate the approach in three different settings where good panel data exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, we also carry out a number of refinements to the validation procedure and expand the set of tests undertaken. The results are broadly encouraging in estimating the joint probabilities of poverty and non-poverty transitions between two periods in all three contexts. The approach is also robust to a broad set of additional “stress” and sensitivity tests, especially in cases where richer model specifications can be estimated. Finally, we test whether the scope of synthetic panels can be expanded in three new directions, namely comparing between income and consumption welfare measures; the robustness to longer intervals (the approach does especially well in predicting long-term poverty transition patterns); and the robustness to two transition lines instead of one. Overall, the results lend support to the application of this approach to settings where panel data are absent.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales2014-08-15info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArticulohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdf161-179http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/127146enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1569-1721info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1573-8701info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10888-014-9284-9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-09-29T11:30:42Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/127146Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-09-29 11:30:43.139SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise
title Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise
spellingShingle Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise
Cruces, Guillermo Antonio
Ciencias Económicas
Chile
Poverty dynamics
Poverty transitions
Nicaragua
Perú
Poverty
Pseudo-panels
Synthetic panels
title_short Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise
title_full Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise
title_fullStr Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise
title_full_unstemmed Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise
title_sort Estimating poverty transitions using repeated cross-sections: a three-country validation exercise
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Cruces, Guillermo Antonio
Lanjouw, Peter
Lucchetti, Leonardo Ramiro
Perova, Elizaveta
Vakis, Renos
Viollaz, Mariana
author Cruces, Guillermo Antonio
author_facet Cruces, Guillermo Antonio
Lanjouw, Peter
Lucchetti, Leonardo Ramiro
Perova, Elizaveta
Vakis, Renos
Viollaz, Mariana
author_role author
author2 Lanjouw, Peter
Lucchetti, Leonardo Ramiro
Perova, Elizaveta
Vakis, Renos
Viollaz, Mariana
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Ciencias Económicas
Chile
Poverty dynamics
Poverty transitions
Nicaragua
Perú
Poverty
Pseudo-panels
Synthetic panels
topic Ciencias Económicas
Chile
Poverty dynamics
Poverty transitions
Nicaragua
Perú
Poverty
Pseudo-panels
Synthetic panels
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This paper validates a recently proposed method to estimate intra-generational poverty transitions through repeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows the creation of a "synthetic panel" - done by predicting future or past household income or consumption using a set of simple modeling and error structure assumptions - and thus permits the estimation of lower and upper bounds of the joint distribution of poverty and non-poverty transitions. We validate the approach in three different settings where good panel data exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, we also carry out a number of refinements to the validation procedure and expand the set of tests undertaken. The results are broadly encouraging in estimating the joint probabilities of poverty and non-poverty transitions between two periods in all three contexts. The approach is also robust to a broad set of additional “stress” and sensitivity tests, especially in cases where richer model specifications can be estimated. Finally, we test whether the scope of synthetic panels can be expanded in three new directions, namely comparing between income and consumption welfare measures; the robustness to longer intervals (the approach does especially well in predicting long-term poverty transition patterns); and the robustness to two transition lines instead of one. Overall, the results lend support to the application of this approach to settings where panel data are absent.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales
description This paper validates a recently proposed method to estimate intra-generational poverty transitions through repeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows the creation of a "synthetic panel" - done by predicting future or past household income or consumption using a set of simple modeling and error structure assumptions - and thus permits the estimation of lower and upper bounds of the joint distribution of poverty and non-poverty transitions. We validate the approach in three different settings where good panel data exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, we also carry out a number of refinements to the validation procedure and expand the set of tests undertaken. The results are broadly encouraging in estimating the joint probabilities of poverty and non-poverty transitions between two periods in all three contexts. The approach is also robust to a broad set of additional “stress” and sensitivity tests, especially in cases where richer model specifications can be estimated. Finally, we test whether the scope of synthetic panels can be expanded in three new directions, namely comparing between income and consumption welfare measures; the robustness to longer intervals (the approach does especially well in predicting long-term poverty transition patterns); and the robustness to two transition lines instead of one. Overall, the results lend support to the application of this approach to settings where panel data are absent.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014-08-15
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
Articulo
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/127146
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dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1569-1721
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1573-8701
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10888-014-9284-9
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
161-179
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)
instname:Universidad Nacional de La Plata
instacron:UNLP
reponame_str SEDICI (UNLP)
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instname_str Universidad Nacional de La Plata
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institution UNLP
repository.name.fl_str_mv SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Plata
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