Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia
- Autores
- Cicowiez, Martín; Machicado, Carlos Gustavo; Muriel, Beatriz; Herrera Jiménez, Alejandro; Rios, Alejandra
- Año de publicación
- 2020
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- documento de trabajo
- Estado
- versión enviada
- Descripción
- We analyzed the impact of currency devaluation on the Bolivian economy, employing a dynamic and extended version of the PEP 1-1 standard model to simulate effects impact on both the main macroeconomic aggregates and the financial stocks and flows of economic agents. We built a new Financial Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2014 and calibrated the model to it. Besides simulating a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, we also analyzed a policy-response scenario, an external-shock scenario, and a gradual-devaluation scenario. In the policy-response scenario, devaluation was accompanied by a reduction in government expenses (fiscal adjustment); in the external-shock scenario, devaluation came with an increase in the export price of gas (main export commodity); and, in the gradual-devaluation scenario, the exchange-rate policy relaxed gradually. The external-shock scenario dominated the other scenarios in terms of higher average growth and less average unemployment. The fiscal-adjustment scenario, however, dominated in terms of inflation, though it implied an inflationary shock in 2020.
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales - Materia
-
Economía
Foreign exchange policy
macroeconomic policy
CGE modelling
Bolivia - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Universidad Nacional de La Plata
- OAI Identificador
- oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/126628
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in BoliviaCicowiez, MartínMachicado, Carlos GustavoMuriel, BeatrizHerrera Jiménez, AlejandroRios, AlejandraEconomíaForeign exchange policymacroeconomic policyCGE modellingBoliviaWe analyzed the impact of currency devaluation on the Bolivian economy, employing a dynamic and extended version of the PEP 1-1 standard model to simulate effects impact on both the main macroeconomic aggregates and the financial stocks and flows of economic agents. We built a new Financial Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2014 and calibrated the model to it. Besides simulating a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, we also analyzed a policy-response scenario, an external-shock scenario, and a gradual-devaluation scenario. In the policy-response scenario, devaluation was accompanied by a reduction in government expenses (fiscal adjustment); in the external-shock scenario, devaluation came with an increase in the export price of gas (main export commodity); and, in the gradual-devaluation scenario, the exchange-rate policy relaxed gradually. The external-shock scenario dominated the other scenarios in terms of higher average growth and less average unemployment. The fiscal-adjustment scenario, however, dominated in terms of inflation, though it implied an inflationary shock in 2020.Facultad de Ciencias EconómicasCentro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales2020info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionDocumento de trabajohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeTrabajoapplication/pdfhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/126628enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1556-5068info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.2139/ssrn.3631405info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-09-29T11:30:22Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/126628Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-09-29 11:30:23.127SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia |
title |
Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia |
spellingShingle |
Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia Cicowiez, Martín Economía Foreign exchange policy macroeconomic policy CGE modelling Bolivia |
title_short |
Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia |
title_full |
Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia |
title_fullStr |
Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia |
title_sort |
Exchange-Rate Policy in a Dollarized Economy: Implications for Growth and Employment in Bolivia |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Cicowiez, Martín Machicado, Carlos Gustavo Muriel, Beatriz Herrera Jiménez, Alejandro Rios, Alejandra |
author |
Cicowiez, Martín |
author_facet |
Cicowiez, Martín Machicado, Carlos Gustavo Muriel, Beatriz Herrera Jiménez, Alejandro Rios, Alejandra |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Machicado, Carlos Gustavo Muriel, Beatriz Herrera Jiménez, Alejandro Rios, Alejandra |
author2_role |
author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Economía Foreign exchange policy macroeconomic policy CGE modelling Bolivia |
topic |
Economía Foreign exchange policy macroeconomic policy CGE modelling Bolivia |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
We analyzed the impact of currency devaluation on the Bolivian economy, employing a dynamic and extended version of the PEP 1-1 standard model to simulate effects impact on both the main macroeconomic aggregates and the financial stocks and flows of economic agents. We built a new Financial Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2014 and calibrated the model to it. Besides simulating a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, we also analyzed a policy-response scenario, an external-shock scenario, and a gradual-devaluation scenario. In the policy-response scenario, devaluation was accompanied by a reduction in government expenses (fiscal adjustment); in the external-shock scenario, devaluation came with an increase in the export price of gas (main export commodity); and, in the gradual-devaluation scenario, the exchange-rate policy relaxed gradually. The external-shock scenario dominated the other scenarios in terms of higher average growth and less average unemployment. The fiscal-adjustment scenario, however, dominated in terms of inflation, though it implied an inflationary shock in 2020. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales |
description |
We analyzed the impact of currency devaluation on the Bolivian economy, employing a dynamic and extended version of the PEP 1-1 standard model to simulate effects impact on both the main macroeconomic aggregates and the financial stocks and flows of economic agents. We built a new Financial Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2014 and calibrated the model to it. Besides simulating a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate, we also analyzed a policy-response scenario, an external-shock scenario, and a gradual-devaluation scenario. In the policy-response scenario, devaluation was accompanied by a reduction in government expenses (fiscal adjustment); in the external-shock scenario, devaluation came with an increase in the export price of gas (main export commodity); and, in the gradual-devaluation scenario, the exchange-rate policy relaxed gradually. The external-shock scenario dominated the other scenarios in terms of higher average growth and less average unemployment. The fiscal-adjustment scenario, however, dominated in terms of inflation, though it implied an inflationary shock in 2020. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion Documento de trabajo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042 info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeTrabajo |
format |
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dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/126628 |
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http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/126628 |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1556-5068 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.2139/ssrn.3631405 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) |
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openAccess |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) |
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