Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program

Autores
Banerjee, Onil; Cicowiez, Martín; Cotta, Jamie
Año de publicación
2016
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
documento de trabajo
Estado
versión enviada
Descripción
Ex-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and economic viability of loans and grants extended by multi-lateral development banks. These assessments are performed under tight time constraints and often in data poor environments. This paper develops a framework for assessing development interventions in data poor environments and applies it to the analysis of the Sustainable Tourism Program, a US$15 million loan from the Inter-American Development Bank to the Government of Belize to foster tourism development in emerging destinations and enhance participation of low income people in the tourism value chain. This paper contributes to the literature in two critical ways: (i) the paper develops a generalizable approach to building dynamic computable general equilibrium models for development policy analysis in data poor environments; (ii) realistic expectations of agent behavioral responses to development interventions are required to calibrate model simulations. To estimate business as usual tourism arrivals and expenditure, auto-regressive integrated moving average methods were used. To estimate agent response to the development intervention, a survey-based quasi-contingent valuation approach was employed. These projections and information on investment structuring and costs were used to calibrate the model shocks. Results of this analysis show that the proposed investment will have positive impacts on Belize’s economy by hastening economic growth. Gross domestic product increases 3% by 2040 and unemployment falls from 12% to 10%. Cross validating with a break-even scenario confirms that the Government of Belize would recover all investment costs even if actual agent demand response were considerably less than forecast. The model developed here may be applied to the ex-ante economic analysis of other sectoral development interventions ranging from agricultural policy to fiscal policy, from integration and trade, to health and education.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS)
Materia
Ciencias Económicas
turismo
Belice
pobreza
ex-ante economic impact analysis; tourism development; economy-wide model; auto-regressive integrated moving average; contingent valuation; data poor environment
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Repositorio
SEDICI (UNLP)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de La Plata
OAI Identificador
oai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/51684

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spelling Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism ProgramBanerjee, OnilCicowiez, MartínCotta, JamieCiencias EconómicasturismoBelicepobrezaex-ante economic impact analysis; tourism development; economy-wide model; auto-regressive integrated moving average; contingent valuation; data poor environmentEx-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and economic viability of loans and grants extended by multi-lateral development banks. These assessments are performed under tight time constraints and often in data poor environments. This paper develops a framework for assessing development interventions in data poor environments and applies it to the analysis of the Sustainable Tourism Program, a US$15 million loan from the Inter-American Development Bank to the Government of Belize to foster tourism development in emerging destinations and enhance participation of low income people in the tourism value chain. This paper contributes to the literature in two critical ways: (i) the paper develops a generalizable approach to building dynamic computable general equilibrium models for development policy analysis in data poor environments; (ii) realistic expectations of agent behavioral responses to development interventions are required to calibrate model simulations. To estimate business as usual tourism arrivals and expenditure, auto-regressive integrated moving average methods were used. To estimate agent response to the development intervention, a survey-based quasi-contingent valuation approach was employed. These projections and information on investment structuring and costs were used to calibrate the model shocks. Results of this analysis show that the proposed investment will have positive impacts on Belize’s economy by hastening economic growth. Gross domestic product increases 3% by 2040 and unemployment falls from 12% to 10%. Cross validating with a break-even scenario confirms that the Government of Belize would recover all investment costs even if actual agent demand response were considerably less than forecast. The model developed here may be applied to the ex-ante economic analysis of other sectoral development interventions ranging from agricultural policy to fiscal policy, from integration and trade, to health and education.Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS)2016-02info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionDocumento de trabajohttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeTrabajoapplication/pdfhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/51684enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://cedlas.econo.unlp.edu.ar/download.php?file=archivos_upload/doc_cedlas194.pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1853-0168info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)reponame:SEDICI (UNLP)instname:Universidad Nacional de La Platainstacron:UNLP2025-09-03T10:36:59Zoai:sedici.unlp.edu.ar:10915/51684Institucionalhttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/oai/snrdalira@sedici.unlp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:13292025-09-03 10:37:00.201SEDICI (UNLP) - Universidad Nacional de La Platafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
title Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
spellingShingle Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
Banerjee, Onil
Ciencias Económicas
turismo
Belice
pobreza
ex-ante economic impact analysis; tourism development; economy-wide model; auto-regressive integrated moving average; contingent valuation; data poor environment
title_short Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
title_full Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
title_fullStr Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
title_full_unstemmed Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
title_sort Economic Assessment of Development Interventions in Data Poor Countries: An Application to Belize’s Sustainable Tourism Program
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Banerjee, Onil
Cicowiez, Martín
Cotta, Jamie
author Banerjee, Onil
author_facet Banerjee, Onil
Cicowiez, Martín
Cotta, Jamie
author_role author
author2 Cicowiez, Martín
Cotta, Jamie
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Ciencias Económicas
turismo
Belice
pobreza
ex-ante economic impact analysis; tourism development; economy-wide model; auto-regressive integrated moving average; contingent valuation; data poor environment
topic Ciencias Económicas
turismo
Belice
pobreza
ex-ante economic impact analysis; tourism development; economy-wide model; auto-regressive integrated moving average; contingent valuation; data poor environment
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Ex-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and economic viability of loans and grants extended by multi-lateral development banks. These assessments are performed under tight time constraints and often in data poor environments. This paper develops a framework for assessing development interventions in data poor environments and applies it to the analysis of the Sustainable Tourism Program, a US$15 million loan from the Inter-American Development Bank to the Government of Belize to foster tourism development in emerging destinations and enhance participation of low income people in the tourism value chain. This paper contributes to the literature in two critical ways: (i) the paper develops a generalizable approach to building dynamic computable general equilibrium models for development policy analysis in data poor environments; (ii) realistic expectations of agent behavioral responses to development interventions are required to calibrate model simulations. To estimate business as usual tourism arrivals and expenditure, auto-regressive integrated moving average methods were used. To estimate agent response to the development intervention, a survey-based quasi-contingent valuation approach was employed. These projections and information on investment structuring and costs were used to calibrate the model shocks. Results of this analysis show that the proposed investment will have positive impacts on Belize’s economy by hastening economic growth. Gross domestic product increases 3% by 2040 and unemployment falls from 12% to 10%. Cross validating with a break-even scenario confirms that the Government of Belize would recover all investment costs even if actual agent demand response were considerably less than forecast. The model developed here may be applied to the ex-ante economic analysis of other sectoral development interventions ranging from agricultural policy to fiscal policy, from integration and trade, to health and education.
Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS)
description Ex-ante economic impact analyses are required to demonstrate the development impact and economic viability of loans and grants extended by multi-lateral development banks. These assessments are performed under tight time constraints and often in data poor environments. This paper develops a framework for assessing development interventions in data poor environments and applies it to the analysis of the Sustainable Tourism Program, a US$15 million loan from the Inter-American Development Bank to the Government of Belize to foster tourism development in emerging destinations and enhance participation of low income people in the tourism value chain. This paper contributes to the literature in two critical ways: (i) the paper develops a generalizable approach to building dynamic computable general equilibrium models for development policy analysis in data poor environments; (ii) realistic expectations of agent behavioral responses to development interventions are required to calibrate model simulations. To estimate business as usual tourism arrivals and expenditure, auto-regressive integrated moving average methods were used. To estimate agent response to the development intervention, a survey-based quasi-contingent valuation approach was employed. These projections and information on investment structuring and costs were used to calibrate the model shocks. Results of this analysis show that the proposed investment will have positive impacts on Belize’s economy by hastening economic growth. Gross domestic product increases 3% by 2040 and unemployment falls from 12% to 10%. Cross validating with a break-even scenario confirms that the Government of Belize would recover all investment costs even if actual agent demand response were considerably less than forecast. The model developed here may be applied to the ex-ante economic analysis of other sectoral development interventions ranging from agricultural policy to fiscal policy, from integration and trade, to health and education.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-02
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042
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url http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/51684
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/1853-0168
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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