Examining the influence of meteorological simulations forced by different initial and boundary conditions in volcanic ash dispersion modelling

• Autores: Mulena, Gabriela C.; Allende, David; Puliafito, Salvador E.; Lakkis, Susan Gabriela; Cremades, Pablo G.; Ulke, Ana G.
• Año de publicación: 2016
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Fuente: Atmospheric Research 176-177(1), 2016
• Materia: CENIZA; DISPERSION; METEOROLOGIA; MODELOS; SIMULACION
• Institución: Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina

Fil: Mulena, Gabriela C. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Mendoza. Grupo de Estudios Atmosféricos y Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Mulena, Gabriela C. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Allende, David. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Mendoza. Grupo de Estudios Atmosféricos y Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Puliafito, Salvador E. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Mendoza. Grupo de Estudios Atmosféricos y Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Puliafito, Salvador E. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Puliafito, Salvador E. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argnetina
Fil: Lakkis, Susan Gabriela. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Lakkis, Susan Gabriela. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina
Fil: Cremades, Pablo G. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Mendoza. Grupo de Estudios Atmosféricos y Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Cremades, Pablo G. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Ulke, Ana G. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los océanos; Argentina
Fil: Ulke, Ana G. Instituto Franco Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Abstract: The performance of the combination of the Fall3D ash dispersion model with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) meteorological model in the southern cone of South America under two initial and boundary conditions was evaluated. ERA-Interim and NCEP-GFS databases were used as dynamic conditions by WRF to simulate meteorological fields for FALL3D. As a case study, we used the eruption of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex occurred in Chile in June 2011. The simulated meteorological results were compared with the horizontal wind direction, meridional and zonal wind components, air and dew point temperatures of 7 radio sounding stations using a set of error indicators. In addition, the ash mass load simulated by FALL3D for a day of maximum dispersion of volcanic ash was evaluated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), on which the Prata algorithm was applied. As well as this, the WRF dominant physical processes with both dynamic conditions were analyzed for that same date. Meteorological results indicated that the simulation performed with WRF and NCEPGFS shows the lowest errors at levels between 925 hPa and 300 hPa. Ash dispersion simulated with FALL3D and WRF in both dynamic conditions shows a different perfomance, which from the synoptic and dynamic viewpoint can be explained for the result of wind intensity and geopotential height. Moreover, WRF intiliazed with NCEPGFS and FALL3D has a higher degree of concordance with the MODIS image. Based on the analysis and results, it was concluded that for the southern cone of South America: 1) it was not trivial for the simulation of volcanic ash dispersion to use one dynamic condition or another in WRF; 2) in that sense, meteorological variables that influenced the differences in volcanic ash dispersion were horizontal wind intensity and direction and geopotential heights; 3) the system generated from the combination of the WRF model initialized with NCEP-GFS and the FALL3D dispersion model would provide better estimations of ash plume position and deposition in the region