Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina

Autores
Aromí, José Daniel; Llada, Martín
Año de publicación
2024
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; Argentina
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Llada, Martín. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; Argentina
Fil: Llada, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Abstract: We evaluate whether professional forecasters incorporate valuable information from public discussions on social media. The study covers the case of inflation in Argentina for the period 2016–2022. We find solid evidence consistent with inattention. A simple indicator of attention to inflation on social media is shown to anticipate professional forecast errors. A one standard deviation increment in the indicator is followed by a rise of 0.4% in mean forecast errors in the subsequent month and by a cumulative increment of 0.7% over the next 6 months. Furthermore, social media content anticipates significant revisions in forecasts that target multiple months ahead inflation and calendar year inflation. These findings are different from previously documented forms of inattention. Consistent results are verified by implementing out-of-sample forecasts and using content from an alternative social network. The study has implications for the use of professional forecasts in the context of policymaking and sheds new evidence on the nature of imperfect information in macroeconomics.
Fuente
Journal of Forecasting. 2024
Materia
INFLACION
INFORMACION
MACROECONOMÍA
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Repositorio
Repositorio Institucional (UCA)
Institución
Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
OAI Identificador
oai:ucacris:123456789/18353

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network_name_str Repositorio Institucional (UCA)
spelling Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of ArgentinaAromí, José DanielLlada, MartínINFLACIONINFORMACIONMACROECONOMÍAFil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; ArgentinaFil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; ArgentinaFil: Aromí, José Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Llada, Martín. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; ArgentinaFil: Llada, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaAbstract: We evaluate whether professional forecasters incorporate valuable information from public discussions on social media. The study covers the case of inflation in Argentina for the period 2016–2022. We find solid evidence consistent with inattention. A simple indicator of attention to inflation on social media is shown to anticipate professional forecast errors. A one standard deviation increment in the indicator is followed by a rise of 0.4% in mean forecast errors in the subsequent month and by a cumulative increment of 0.7% over the next 6 months. Furthermore, social media content anticipates significant revisions in forecasts that target multiple months ahead inflation and calendar year inflation. These findings are different from previously documented forms of inattention. Consistent results are verified by implementing out-of-sample forecasts and using content from an alternative social network. The study has implications for the use of professional forecasts in the context of policymaking and sheds new evidence on the nature of imperfect information in macroeconomics.2024info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfhttps://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/1835310.1002/for.3141Aromí, J. D., Llada, M. Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina [en línea]. Journal of Forecasting. 2024. doi: 10.1002/for.3141. Disponible en: https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/18353Journal of Forecasting. 2024reponame:Repositorio Institucional (UCA)instname:Pontificia Universidad Católica ArgentinaengArgentinaSIGLO XXinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/2025-07-03T10:59:51Zoai:ucacris:123456789/18353instacron:UCAInstitucionalhttps://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/Universidad privadaNo correspondehttps://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/oaiclaudia_fernandez@uca.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:25852025-07-03 10:59:51.922Repositorio Institucional (UCA) - Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentinafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina
title Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina
spellingShingle Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina
Aromí, José Daniel
INFLACION
INFORMACION
MACROECONOMÍA
title_short Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina
title_full Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina
title_fullStr Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina
title_sort Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Aromí, José Daniel
Llada, Martín
author Aromí, José Daniel
author_facet Aromí, José Daniel
Llada, Martín
author_role author
author2 Llada, Martín
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv INFLACION
INFORMACION
MACROECONOMÍA
topic INFLACION
INFORMACION
MACROECONOMÍA
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; Argentina
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Llada, Martín. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; Argentina
Fil: Llada, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Abstract: We evaluate whether professional forecasters incorporate valuable information from public discussions on social media. The study covers the case of inflation in Argentina for the period 2016–2022. We find solid evidence consistent with inattention. A simple indicator of attention to inflation on social media is shown to anticipate professional forecast errors. A one standard deviation increment in the indicator is followed by a rise of 0.4% in mean forecast errors in the subsequent month and by a cumulative increment of 0.7% over the next 6 months. Furthermore, social media content anticipates significant revisions in forecasts that target multiple months ahead inflation and calendar year inflation. These findings are different from previously documented forms of inattention. Consistent results are verified by implementing out-of-sample forecasts and using content from an alternative social network. The study has implications for the use of professional forecasts in the context of policymaking and sheds new evidence on the nature of imperfect information in macroeconomics.
description Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; Argentina
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/18353
10.1002/for.3141
Aromí, J. D., Llada, M. Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina [en línea]. Journal of Forecasting. 2024. doi: 10.1002/for.3141. Disponible en: https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/18353
url https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/18353
identifier_str_mv 10.1002/for.3141
Aromí, J. D., Llada, M. Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina [en línea]. Journal of Forecasting. 2024. doi: 10.1002/for.3141. Disponible en: https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/18353
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Argentina
SIGLO XX
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Journal of Forecasting. 2024
reponame:Repositorio Institucional (UCA)
instname:Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
reponame_str Repositorio Institucional (UCA)
collection Repositorio Institucional (UCA)
instname_str Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio Institucional (UCA) - Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
repository.mail.fl_str_mv claudia_fernandez@uca.edu.ar
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