Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina
- Autores
- Aromí, José Daniel; Llada, Martín
- Año de publicación
- 2024
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; Argentina
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Llada, Martín. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; Argentina
Fil: Llada, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Abstract: We evaluate whether professional forecasters incorporate valuable information from public discussions on social media. The study covers the case of inflation in Argentina for the period 2016–2022. We find solid evidence consistent with inattention. A simple indicator of attention to inflation on social media is shown to anticipate professional forecast errors. A one standard deviation increment in the indicator is followed by a rise of 0.4% in mean forecast errors in the subsequent month and by a cumulative increment of 0.7% over the next 6 months. Furthermore, social media content anticipates significant revisions in forecasts that target multiple months ahead inflation and calendar year inflation. These findings are different from previously documented forms of inattention. Consistent results are verified by implementing out-of-sample forecasts and using content from an alternative social network. The study has implications for the use of professional forecasts in the context of policymaking and sheds new evidence on the nature of imperfect information in macroeconomics. - Fuente
- Journal of Forecasting. 2024
- Materia
-
INFLACION
INFORMACION
MACROECONOMÍA - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ucacris:123456789/18353
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
id |
RIUCA_0d9f2e5b43df930d93782ba07e2dbdee |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ucacris:123456789/18353 |
network_acronym_str |
RIUCA |
repository_id_str |
2585 |
network_name_str |
Repositorio Institucional (UCA) |
spelling |
Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of ArgentinaAromí, José DanielLlada, MartínINFLACIONINFORMACIONMACROECONOMÍAFil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; ArgentinaFil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; ArgentinaFil: Aromí, José Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Llada, Martín. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; ArgentinaFil: Llada, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaAbstract: We evaluate whether professional forecasters incorporate valuable information from public discussions on social media. The study covers the case of inflation in Argentina for the period 2016–2022. We find solid evidence consistent with inattention. A simple indicator of attention to inflation on social media is shown to anticipate professional forecast errors. A one standard deviation increment in the indicator is followed by a rise of 0.4% in mean forecast errors in the subsequent month and by a cumulative increment of 0.7% over the next 6 months. Furthermore, social media content anticipates significant revisions in forecasts that target multiple months ahead inflation and calendar year inflation. These findings are different from previously documented forms of inattention. Consistent results are verified by implementing out-of-sample forecasts and using content from an alternative social network. The study has implications for the use of professional forecasts in the context of policymaking and sheds new evidence on the nature of imperfect information in macroeconomics.2024info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfhttps://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/1835310.1002/for.3141Aromí, J. D., Llada, M. Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina [en línea]. Journal of Forecasting. 2024. doi: 10.1002/for.3141. Disponible en: https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/18353Journal of Forecasting. 2024reponame:Repositorio Institucional (UCA)instname:Pontificia Universidad Católica ArgentinaengArgentinaSIGLO XXinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/2025-07-03T10:59:51Zoai:ucacris:123456789/18353instacron:UCAInstitucionalhttps://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/Universidad privadaNo correspondehttps://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/oaiclaudia_fernandez@uca.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:25852025-07-03 10:59:51.922Repositorio Institucional (UCA) - Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentinafalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina |
title |
Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina |
spellingShingle |
Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina Aromí, José Daniel INFLACION INFORMACION MACROECONOMÍA |
title_short |
Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina |
title_full |
Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina |
title_fullStr |
Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina |
title_full_unstemmed |
Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina |
title_sort |
Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Aromí, José Daniel Llada, Martín |
author |
Aromí, José Daniel |
author_facet |
Aromí, José Daniel Llada, Martín |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Llada, Martín |
author2_role |
author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
INFLACION INFORMACION MACROECONOMÍA |
topic |
INFLACION INFORMACION MACROECONOMÍA |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; Argentina Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Llada, Martín. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; Argentina Fil: Llada, Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Abstract: We evaluate whether professional forecasters incorporate valuable information from public discussions on social media. The study covers the case of inflation in Argentina for the period 2016–2022. We find solid evidence consistent with inattention. A simple indicator of attention to inflation on social media is shown to anticipate professional forecast errors. A one standard deviation increment in the indicator is followed by a rise of 0.4% in mean forecast errors in the subsequent month and by a cumulative increment of 0.7% over the next 6 months. Furthermore, social media content anticipates significant revisions in forecasts that target multiple months ahead inflation and calendar year inflation. These findings are different from previously documented forms of inattention. Consistent results are verified by implementing out-of-sample forecasts and using content from an alternative social network. The study has implications for the use of professional forecasts in the context of policymaking and sheds new evidence on the nature of imperfect information in macroeconomics. |
description |
Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía; Argentina |
publishDate |
2024 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2024 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/18353 10.1002/for.3141 Aromí, J. D., Llada, M. Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina [en línea]. Journal of Forecasting. 2024. doi: 10.1002/for.3141. Disponible en: https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/18353 |
url |
https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/18353 |
identifier_str_mv |
10.1002/for.3141 Aromí, J. D., Llada, M. Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? : the case of Argentina [en línea]. Journal of Forecasting. 2024. doi: 10.1002/for.3141. Disponible en: https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/18353 |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv |
Argentina SIGLO XX |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Journal of Forecasting. 2024 reponame:Repositorio Institucional (UCA) instname:Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina |
reponame_str |
Repositorio Institucional (UCA) |
collection |
Repositorio Institucional (UCA) |
instname_str |
Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositorio Institucional (UCA) - Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
claudia_fernandez@uca.edu.ar |
_version_ |
1836638373859557376 |
score |
13.13397 |