Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model
- Autores
- Valdecantos, Sebastián
- Año de publicación
- 2020
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- informe técnico
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- The Argentinean economy has just ended another lost decade. After the peak registered in 2011, the per capita GDP has oscillated with a decreasing trend, leaving the economy poorer than it was ten years before. During these ten years, different governments with conflicting macroeconomic programs were in power, none of them able to save the economy from stagflation. The goal of this paper is to address to what extent the economic performance would have been better had other policy combinations been implemented. The analysis is made through an empirical quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) model for the period 2007-19 in order to ensure the coherence of the results and to give the outcomes of the simulations a holistic and dynamically consistent interpretation. From the results of the simulations it seems that the problem that is keeping Argentina in stagflation goes beyond the domain of macroeconomics. The fact that in practice two divergent macroeconomic programs were implemented-neither of them being able to produce good and sustainable macroeconomic performance-is a first symptom that favors the case for that hypothesis. When the model is used to counterfactually test the policy recommendations of these approaches with the external conditions that prevailed while the opposite program was implemented, none of them yield results that can be deemed sustainable. Yet, the model developed in this paper can be useful for studying the different policy combinations that, given a specific context, can bring about more stable and sustainable dynamics for the Argentinean economy.
Fil: Valdecantos, Sebastián. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina. - Materia
-
Macroeconomía
Modelo de Stock-Flujo
Política Económica - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales
- OAI Identificador
- oai:nulan.mdp.edu.ar:3429
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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spelling |
Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent modelValdecantos, SebastiánMacroeconomíaModelo de Stock-FlujoPolítica EconómicaThe Argentinean economy has just ended another lost decade. After the peak registered in 2011, the per capita GDP has oscillated with a decreasing trend, leaving the economy poorer than it was ten years before. During these ten years, different governments with conflicting macroeconomic programs were in power, none of them able to save the economy from stagflation. The goal of this paper is to address to what extent the economic performance would have been better had other policy combinations been implemented. The analysis is made through an empirical quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) model for the period 2007-19 in order to ensure the coherence of the results and to give the outcomes of the simulations a holistic and dynamically consistent interpretation. From the results of the simulations it seems that the problem that is keeping Argentina in stagflation goes beyond the domain of macroeconomics. The fact that in practice two divergent macroeconomic programs were implemented-neither of them being able to produce good and sustainable macroeconomic performance-is a first symptom that favors the case for that hypothesis. When the model is used to counterfactually test the policy recommendations of these approaches with the external conditions that prevailed while the opposite program was implemented, none of them yield results that can be deemed sustainable. Yet, the model developed in this paper can be useful for studying the different policy combinations that, given a specific context, can bring about more stable and sustainable dynamics for the Argentinean economy.Fil: Valdecantos, Sebastián. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina.Levy Economics Institute2020-11info:eu-repo/semantics/reportinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18ghinfo:ar-repo/semantics/informeTecnicoapplication/pdfhttps://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/1/valdecantos-2020.pdfengArgentina2007-2019info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.esreponame:Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS)instname:Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales2025-09-29T13:41:35Zoai:nulan.mdp.edu.ar:3429instacron:UNMDP-FCEySInstitucionalhttp://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/cgi/oai2cendocu@mdp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:18452025-09-29 13:41:35.502Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS) - Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Socialesfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model |
title |
Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model |
spellingShingle |
Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model Valdecantos, Sebastián Macroeconomía Modelo de Stock-Flujo Política Económica |
title_short |
Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model |
title_full |
Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model |
title_fullStr |
Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model |
title_sort |
Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Valdecantos, Sebastián |
author |
Valdecantos, Sebastián |
author_facet |
Valdecantos, Sebastián |
author_role |
author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Macroeconomía Modelo de Stock-Flujo Política Económica |
topic |
Macroeconomía Modelo de Stock-Flujo Política Económica |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
The Argentinean economy has just ended another lost decade. After the peak registered in 2011, the per capita GDP has oscillated with a decreasing trend, leaving the economy poorer than it was ten years before. During these ten years, different governments with conflicting macroeconomic programs were in power, none of them able to save the economy from stagflation. The goal of this paper is to address to what extent the economic performance would have been better had other policy combinations been implemented. The analysis is made through an empirical quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) model for the period 2007-19 in order to ensure the coherence of the results and to give the outcomes of the simulations a holistic and dynamically consistent interpretation. From the results of the simulations it seems that the problem that is keeping Argentina in stagflation goes beyond the domain of macroeconomics. The fact that in practice two divergent macroeconomic programs were implemented-neither of them being able to produce good and sustainable macroeconomic performance-is a first symptom that favors the case for that hypothesis. When the model is used to counterfactually test the policy recommendations of these approaches with the external conditions that prevailed while the opposite program was implemented, none of them yield results that can be deemed sustainable. Yet, the model developed in this paper can be useful for studying the different policy combinations that, given a specific context, can bring about more stable and sustainable dynamics for the Argentinean economy. Fil: Valdecantos, Sebastián. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina. |
description |
The Argentinean economy has just ended another lost decade. After the peak registered in 2011, the per capita GDP has oscillated with a decreasing trend, leaving the economy poorer than it was ten years before. During these ten years, different governments with conflicting macroeconomic programs were in power, none of them able to save the economy from stagflation. The goal of this paper is to address to what extent the economic performance would have been better had other policy combinations been implemented. The analysis is made through an empirical quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) model for the period 2007-19 in order to ensure the coherence of the results and to give the outcomes of the simulations a holistic and dynamically consistent interpretation. From the results of the simulations it seems that the problem that is keeping Argentina in stagflation goes beyond the domain of macroeconomics. The fact that in practice two divergent macroeconomic programs were implemented-neither of them being able to produce good and sustainable macroeconomic performance-is a first symptom that favors the case for that hypothesis. When the model is used to counterfactually test the policy recommendations of these approaches with the external conditions that prevailed while the opposite program was implemented, none of them yield results that can be deemed sustainable. Yet, the model developed in this paper can be useful for studying the different policy combinations that, given a specific context, can bring about more stable and sustainable dynamics for the Argentinean economy. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-11 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/report info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh info:ar-repo/semantics/informeTecnico |
format |
report |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/ https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/1/valdecantos-2020.pdf |
url |
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/ https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/1/valdecantos-2020.pdf |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv |
Argentina 2007-2019 |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Levy Economics Institute |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Levy Economics Institute |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS) instname:Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales |
reponame_str |
Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS) |
collection |
Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS) |
instname_str |
Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS) - Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
cendocu@mdp.edu.ar |
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1844618836309966848 |
score |
13.070432 |