Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model

Autores
Valdecantos, Sebastián
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
informe técnico
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The Argentinean economy has just ended another lost decade. After the peak registered in 2011, the per capita GDP has oscillated with a decreasing trend, leaving the economy poorer than it was ten years before. During these ten years, different governments with conflicting macroeconomic programs were in power, none of them able to save the economy from stagflation. The goal of this paper is to address to what extent the economic performance would have been better had other policy combinations been implemented. The analysis is made through an empirical quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) model for the period 2007-19 in order to ensure the coherence of the results and to give the outcomes of the simulations a holistic and dynamically consistent interpretation. From the results of the simulations it seems that the problem that is keeping Argentina in stagflation goes beyond the domain of macroeconomics. The fact that in practice two divergent macroeconomic programs were implemented-neither of them being able to produce good and sustainable macroeconomic performance-is a first symptom that favors the case for that hypothesis. When the model is used to counterfactually test the policy recommendations of these approaches with the external conditions that prevailed while the opposite program was implemented, none of them yield results that can be deemed sustainable. Yet, the model developed in this paper can be useful for studying the different policy combinations that, given a specific context, can bring about more stable and sustainable dynamics for the Argentinean economy.
Fil: Valdecantos, Sebastián. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina.
Materia
Macroeconomía
Modelo de Stock-Flujo
Política Económica
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
Repositorio
Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS)
Institución
Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales
OAI Identificador
oai:nulan.mdp.edu.ar:3429

id NULAN_439d03fd79f7d96d5128801fff9a40dc
oai_identifier_str oai:nulan.mdp.edu.ar:3429
network_acronym_str NULAN
repository_id_str 1845
network_name_str Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS)
spelling Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent modelValdecantos, SebastiánMacroeconomíaModelo de Stock-FlujoPolítica EconómicaThe Argentinean economy has just ended another lost decade. After the peak registered in 2011, the per capita GDP has oscillated with a decreasing trend, leaving the economy poorer than it was ten years before. During these ten years, different governments with conflicting macroeconomic programs were in power, none of them able to save the economy from stagflation. The goal of this paper is to address to what extent the economic performance would have been better had other policy combinations been implemented. The analysis is made through an empirical quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) model for the period 2007-19 in order to ensure the coherence of the results and to give the outcomes of the simulations a holistic and dynamically consistent interpretation. From the results of the simulations it seems that the problem that is keeping Argentina in stagflation goes beyond the domain of macroeconomics. The fact that in practice two divergent macroeconomic programs were implemented-neither of them being able to produce good and sustainable macroeconomic performance-is a first symptom that favors the case for that hypothesis. When the model is used to counterfactually test the policy recommendations of these approaches with the external conditions that prevailed while the opposite program was implemented, none of them yield results that can be deemed sustainable. Yet, the model developed in this paper can be useful for studying the different policy combinations that, given a specific context, can bring about more stable and sustainable dynamics for the Argentinean economy.Fil: Valdecantos, Sebastián. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina.Levy Economics Institute2020-11info:eu-repo/semantics/reportinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18ghinfo:ar-repo/semantics/informeTecnicoapplication/pdfhttps://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/1/valdecantos-2020.pdfengArgentina2007-2019info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.esreponame:Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS)instname:Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales2025-09-29T13:41:35Zoai:nulan.mdp.edu.ar:3429instacron:UNMDP-FCEySInstitucionalhttp://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/Universidad públicaNo correspondehttp://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/cgi/oai2cendocu@mdp.edu.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:18452025-09-29 13:41:35.502Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS) - Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Socialesfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model
title Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model
spellingShingle Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model
Valdecantos, Sebastián
Macroeconomía
Modelo de Stock-Flujo
Política Económica
title_short Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model
title_full Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model
title_fullStr Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model
title_full_unstemmed Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model
title_sort Argentina's (macroeconomic?) trap: Some insights from an empirical stock-flow consistent model
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Valdecantos, Sebastián
author Valdecantos, Sebastián
author_facet Valdecantos, Sebastián
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Macroeconomía
Modelo de Stock-Flujo
Política Económica
topic Macroeconomía
Modelo de Stock-Flujo
Política Económica
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The Argentinean economy has just ended another lost decade. After the peak registered in 2011, the per capita GDP has oscillated with a decreasing trend, leaving the economy poorer than it was ten years before. During these ten years, different governments with conflicting macroeconomic programs were in power, none of them able to save the economy from stagflation. The goal of this paper is to address to what extent the economic performance would have been better had other policy combinations been implemented. The analysis is made through an empirical quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) model for the period 2007-19 in order to ensure the coherence of the results and to give the outcomes of the simulations a holistic and dynamically consistent interpretation. From the results of the simulations it seems that the problem that is keeping Argentina in stagflation goes beyond the domain of macroeconomics. The fact that in practice two divergent macroeconomic programs were implemented-neither of them being able to produce good and sustainable macroeconomic performance-is a first symptom that favors the case for that hypothesis. When the model is used to counterfactually test the policy recommendations of these approaches with the external conditions that prevailed while the opposite program was implemented, none of them yield results that can be deemed sustainable. Yet, the model developed in this paper can be useful for studying the different policy combinations that, given a specific context, can bring about more stable and sustainable dynamics for the Argentinean economy.
Fil: Valdecantos, Sebastián. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina.
description The Argentinean economy has just ended another lost decade. After the peak registered in 2011, the per capita GDP has oscillated with a decreasing trend, leaving the economy poorer than it was ten years before. During these ten years, different governments with conflicting macroeconomic programs were in power, none of them able to save the economy from stagflation. The goal of this paper is to address to what extent the economic performance would have been better had other policy combinations been implemented. The analysis is made through an empirical quarterly stock-flow consistent (SFC) model for the period 2007-19 in order to ensure the coherence of the results and to give the outcomes of the simulations a holistic and dynamically consistent interpretation. From the results of the simulations it seems that the problem that is keeping Argentina in stagflation goes beyond the domain of macroeconomics. The fact that in practice two divergent macroeconomic programs were implemented-neither of them being able to produce good and sustainable macroeconomic performance-is a first symptom that favors the case for that hypothesis. When the model is used to counterfactually test the policy recommendations of these approaches with the external conditions that prevailed while the opposite program was implemented, none of them yield results that can be deemed sustainable. Yet, the model developed in this paper can be useful for studying the different policy combinations that, given a specific context, can bring about more stable and sustainable dynamics for the Argentinean economy.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/report
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh
info:ar-repo/semantics/informeTecnico
format report
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/1/valdecantos-2020.pdf
url https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/3429/1/valdecantos-2020.pdf
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Argentina
2007-2019
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Levy Economics Institute
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Levy Economics Institute
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS)
instname:Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales
reponame_str Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS)
collection Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS)
instname_str Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales
repository.name.fl_str_mv Nülan (UNMDP-FCEyS) - Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales
repository.mail.fl_str_mv cendocu@mdp.edu.ar
_version_ 1844618836309966848
score 13.070432