Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas

Autores
Veron, Santiago Ramón; De Abelleyra, Diego; Lobell, David B.
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Understanding regional impacts of recent climate trends can help anticipate how further climate change will affect agricultural productivity. We here used panel models to estimate the contribution of growing season precipitation (P), average temperature (T) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) on wheat, maize and soy yield and yield trends between 1971 and 2012 from 33 counties of the Argentine Pampas. A parallel analysis was conducted on a per county basis by adjusting a linear model to the first difference (i.e., subtracting from each value the previous year value) in yield and first difference in weather variables to estimate crop sensitivity to interannual changes in P, T, and DTR. Our results show a relatively small but significant negative impact of climate trends on yield which is consistent with the estimated crop and county specific sensitivity of yield to interannual changes in P, T and DTR and their temporal trends. Median yield loss from climate trends for the 1971−2012 period amounted to 5.4 % of average yields for maize, 5.1 % for wheat, and 2.6 % for soy. Crop yield gains for this time period could have been 15–20 % higher if climate remained without directional changes in the Pampas. On average, crop yield responded more to trends in T and DTR than in P. Translated into economic terms the observed reductions in maize, wheat, and soy yields due to climate trends in the Pampas would equal $1.1 B using 2013 producer prices. These results add to the increasing evidence that climate trends are slowing yield increase.
Fil: Verón, Santiago Ramón. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Clima y Agua; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos y Sistemas de Información; Argentina
Fil: De Abelleyra, Diego. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Clima y Agua; Argentina
Fil: Lobell, David B. Stanford University. Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Program on Food Security and Environment; Estados Unidos
Fuente
Climate change 130 (2) : 235-245. (february 21, 2015)
Materia
Factores Climáticos
Climatic Factors
Precipitation
Temperature
Yields
Crops
Precipitación Atmosférica
Temperatura
Rendimiento
Cultivos
Región Pampeana
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Repositorio
INTA Digital (INTA)
Institución
Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
OAI Identificador
oai:localhost:20.500.12123/1380
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spelling Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the PampasVeron, Santiago RamónDe Abelleyra, DiegoLobell, David B.Factores ClimáticosClimatic FactorsPrecipitationTemperatureYieldsCropsPrecipitación AtmosféricaTemperaturaRendimientoCultivosRegión PampeanaUnderstanding regional impacts of recent climate trends can help anticipate how further climate change will affect agricultural productivity. We here used panel models to estimate the contribution of growing season precipitation (P), average temperature (T) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) on wheat, maize and soy yield and yield trends between 1971 and 2012 from 33 counties of the Argentine Pampas. A parallel analysis was conducted on a per county basis by adjusting a linear model to the first difference (i.e., subtracting from each value the previous year value) in yield and first difference in weather variables to estimate crop sensitivity to interannual changes in P, T, and DTR. Our results show a relatively small but significant negative impact of climate trends on yield which is consistent with the estimated crop and county specific sensitivity of yield to interannual changes in P, T and DTR and their temporal trends. Median yield loss from climate trends for the 1971−2012 period amounted to 5.4 % of average yields for maize, 5.1 % for wheat, and 2.6 % for soy. Crop yield gains for this time period could have been 15–20 % higher if climate remained without directional changes in the Pampas. On average, crop yield responded more to trends in T and DTR than in P. Translated into economic terms the observed reductions in maize, wheat, and soy yields due to climate trends in the Pampas would equal $1.1 B using 2013 producer prices. These results add to the increasing evidence that climate trends are slowing yield increase.Fil: Verón, Santiago Ramón. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Clima y Agua; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos y Sistemas de Información; ArgentinaFil: De Abelleyra, Diego. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Clima y Agua; ArgentinaFil: Lobell, David B. Stanford University. Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Program on Food Security and Environment; Estados Unidos2017-10-02T17:51:19Z2017-10-02T17:51:19Z2015-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/1380https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-015-1350-1.pdf0165-00091573-1480 (Online version)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1350-1Climate change 130 (2) : 235-245. (february 21, 2015)reponame:INTA Digital (INTA)instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología AgropecuariaengPampa (general region)info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)2025-10-16T09:29:01Zoai:localhost:20.500.12123/1380instacron:INTAInstitucionalhttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/oai/requesttripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:l2025-10-16 09:29:02.08INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuariafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas
title Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas
spellingShingle Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas
Veron, Santiago Ramón
Factores Climáticos
Climatic Factors
Precipitation
Temperature
Yields
Crops
Precipitación Atmosférica
Temperatura
Rendimiento
Cultivos
Región Pampeana
title_short Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas
title_full Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas
title_fullStr Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas
title_full_unstemmed Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas
title_sort Impacts of precipitation and temperature on crop yields in the Pampas
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Veron, Santiago Ramón
De Abelleyra, Diego
Lobell, David B.
author Veron, Santiago Ramón
author_facet Veron, Santiago Ramón
De Abelleyra, Diego
Lobell, David B.
author_role author
author2 De Abelleyra, Diego
Lobell, David B.
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Factores Climáticos
Climatic Factors
Precipitation
Temperature
Yields
Crops
Precipitación Atmosférica
Temperatura
Rendimiento
Cultivos
Región Pampeana
topic Factores Climáticos
Climatic Factors
Precipitation
Temperature
Yields
Crops
Precipitación Atmosférica
Temperatura
Rendimiento
Cultivos
Región Pampeana
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Understanding regional impacts of recent climate trends can help anticipate how further climate change will affect agricultural productivity. We here used panel models to estimate the contribution of growing season precipitation (P), average temperature (T) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) on wheat, maize and soy yield and yield trends between 1971 and 2012 from 33 counties of the Argentine Pampas. A parallel analysis was conducted on a per county basis by adjusting a linear model to the first difference (i.e., subtracting from each value the previous year value) in yield and first difference in weather variables to estimate crop sensitivity to interannual changes in P, T, and DTR. Our results show a relatively small but significant negative impact of climate trends on yield which is consistent with the estimated crop and county specific sensitivity of yield to interannual changes in P, T and DTR and their temporal trends. Median yield loss from climate trends for the 1971−2012 period amounted to 5.4 % of average yields for maize, 5.1 % for wheat, and 2.6 % for soy. Crop yield gains for this time period could have been 15–20 % higher if climate remained without directional changes in the Pampas. On average, crop yield responded more to trends in T and DTR than in P. Translated into economic terms the observed reductions in maize, wheat, and soy yields due to climate trends in the Pampas would equal $1.1 B using 2013 producer prices. These results add to the increasing evidence that climate trends are slowing yield increase.
Fil: Verón, Santiago Ramón. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Clima y Agua; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos y Sistemas de Información; Argentina
Fil: De Abelleyra, Diego. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Clima y Agua; Argentina
Fil: Lobell, David B. Stanford University. Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Program on Food Security and Environment; Estados Unidos
description Understanding regional impacts of recent climate trends can help anticipate how further climate change will affect agricultural productivity. We here used panel models to estimate the contribution of growing season precipitation (P), average temperature (T) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) on wheat, maize and soy yield and yield trends between 1971 and 2012 from 33 counties of the Argentine Pampas. A parallel analysis was conducted on a per county basis by adjusting a linear model to the first difference (i.e., subtracting from each value the previous year value) in yield and first difference in weather variables to estimate crop sensitivity to interannual changes in P, T, and DTR. Our results show a relatively small but significant negative impact of climate trends on yield which is consistent with the estimated crop and county specific sensitivity of yield to interannual changes in P, T and DTR and their temporal trends. Median yield loss from climate trends for the 1971−2012 period amounted to 5.4 % of average yields for maize, 5.1 % for wheat, and 2.6 % for soy. Crop yield gains for this time period could have been 15–20 % higher if climate remained without directional changes in the Pampas. On average, crop yield responded more to trends in T and DTR than in P. Translated into economic terms the observed reductions in maize, wheat, and soy yields due to climate trends in the Pampas would equal $1.1 B using 2013 producer prices. These results add to the increasing evidence that climate trends are slowing yield increase.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-05
2017-10-02T17:51:19Z
2017-10-02T17:51:19Z
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/1380
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-015-1350-1.pdf
0165-0009
1573-1480 (Online version)
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1350-1
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/1380
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-015-1350-1.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1350-1
identifier_str_mv 0165-0009
1573-1480 (Online version)
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.none.fl_str_mv Pampa (general region)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Climate change 130 (2) : 235-245. (february 21, 2015)
reponame:INTA Digital (INTA)
instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
reponame_str INTA Digital (INTA)
collection INTA Digital (INTA)
instname_str Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
repository.name.fl_str_mv INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
repository.mail.fl_str_mv tripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.ar
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score 12.712165

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