Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations

Autores
Semper Pascual, Asunción; Decarre, Julieta; Baumann, Matthias; Camino, Micaela; Di Blanco, Yamil; Gómez Valencia, Bibiana; Kuemmerle, Tobias
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Land-use change is a global threat to biodiversity, but how land-use change affects species beyond the direct effect of habitat loss remains poorly understood. We developed an approach to isolate and map the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion on species of conservation concern, using the threatened giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) in the Gran Chaco as an example. We reconstructed anteater occupancy change between 1985 and 2015 by fitting single-season occupancy models with contemporary camera-trap data and backcasting the models to 1985 and 2000 land-cover/use maps. Based on this, we compared the area of forest loss (direct effect of agricultural expansion) with the area where forests remained but occupancy still declined (indirect effect of agricultural expansion). Anteater occupancy decreased substantially since 1985, particularly after 2000 when agriculture expanded rapidly. Between 1985 and 2015, ~ 64,000 km2 of forest disappeared, yet occupancy declined across a larger area (~ 102,000 km2), extending far into seemingly untransformed habitat. This suggests that widespread sink habitat has emerged due to agricultural land-use change, and that species may lose their habitat through direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, highlighting the urgent need for broad-scale conservation planning in the Chaco. Appropriate management responses could proactively protect more habitat where populations are stable, and restore habitat or address causes of mortality in areas where declines occur. Our work also highlights how occupancy modelling combined with remote sensing can help to detect the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, providing guidance for spatially targeting conservation strategies to halt extinctions.
Instituto de Recursos Biológicos
Fil: Semper Pascual, Asunción. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania
Fil: Decarre, Julieta. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Recursos Biológicos; Argentina
Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología del Litoral. Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación; Argentina
Fil: Di Blanco, Yamil. Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología Subtropical; Argentina. Asociación Civil Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlántico; Argentina
Fil: Gomez Valencia, Bibiana. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Grupo de Estudios de Sistemas Ecológicos en Ambientes Agrícolas; Argentina. Instituto de Investigaciones de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; Colombia
Fil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania. Humboldt-University Berlin. Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human Environment Systems; Alemania
Fuente
Biodiversity and Conservation (2020)
Materia
Deforestación
Utilización de la Tierra
Modelos
Deforestation
Land Use
Models
Cambio de Uso del Suelo
Modelado de Ocupación
Región Chaqueña
Land-use Changes
Occupancy Modelling
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Repositorio
INTA Digital (INTA)
Institución
Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
OAI Identificador
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spelling Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populationsSemper Pascual, AsunciónDecarre, JulietaBaumann, MatthiasCamino, MicaelaDi Blanco, YamilGómez Valencia, BibianaKuemmerle, TobiasDeforestaciónUtilización de la TierraModelosDeforestationLand UseModelsCambio de Uso del SueloModelado de OcupaciónRegión ChaqueñaLand-use ChangesOccupancy ModellingLand-use change is a global threat to biodiversity, but how land-use change affects species beyond the direct effect of habitat loss remains poorly understood. We developed an approach to isolate and map the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion on species of conservation concern, using the threatened giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) in the Gran Chaco as an example. We reconstructed anteater occupancy change between 1985 and 2015 by fitting single-season occupancy models with contemporary camera-trap data and backcasting the models to 1985 and 2000 land-cover/use maps. Based on this, we compared the area of forest loss (direct effect of agricultural expansion) with the area where forests remained but occupancy still declined (indirect effect of agricultural expansion). Anteater occupancy decreased substantially since 1985, particularly after 2000 when agriculture expanded rapidly. Between 1985 and 2015, ~ 64,000 km2 of forest disappeared, yet occupancy declined across a larger area (~ 102,000 km2), extending far into seemingly untransformed habitat. This suggests that widespread sink habitat has emerged due to agricultural land-use change, and that species may lose their habitat through direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, highlighting the urgent need for broad-scale conservation planning in the Chaco. Appropriate management responses could proactively protect more habitat where populations are stable, and restore habitat or address causes of mortality in areas where declines occur. Our work also highlights how occupancy modelling combined with remote sensing can help to detect the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, providing guidance for spatially targeting conservation strategies to halt extinctions.Instituto de Recursos BiológicosFil: Semper Pascual, Asunción. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Decarre, Julieta. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Recursos Biológicos; ArgentinaFil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología del Litoral. Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación; ArgentinaFil: Di Blanco, Yamil. Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología Subtropical; Argentina. Asociación Civil Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlántico; ArgentinaFil: Gomez Valencia, Bibiana. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Grupo de Estudios de Sistemas Ecológicos en Ambientes Agrícolas; Argentina. Instituto de Investigaciones de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; ColombiaFil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania. Humboldt-University Berlin. Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human Environment Systems; AlemaniaSpringer2020-08-24T14:56:19Z2020-08-24T14:56:19Z2020-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/7760https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-10960-31151572-9710https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-1Biodiversity and Conservation (2020)reponame:INTA Digital (INTA)instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuariaenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)2025-10-23T11:17:21Zoai:localhost:20.500.12123/7760instacron:INTAInstitucionalhttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/oai/requesttripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:l2025-10-23 11:17:21.809INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuariafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations
title Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations
spellingShingle Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations
Semper Pascual, Asunción
Deforestación
Utilización de la Tierra
Modelos
Deforestation
Land Use
Models
Cambio de Uso del Suelo
Modelado de Ocupación
Región Chaqueña
Land-use Changes
Occupancy Modelling
title_short Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations
title_full Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations
title_fullStr Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations
title_full_unstemmed Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations
title_sort Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Semper Pascual, Asunción
Decarre, Julieta
Baumann, Matthias
Camino, Micaela
Di Blanco, Yamil
Gómez Valencia, Bibiana
Kuemmerle, Tobias
author Semper Pascual, Asunción
author_facet Semper Pascual, Asunción
Decarre, Julieta
Baumann, Matthias
Camino, Micaela
Di Blanco, Yamil
Gómez Valencia, Bibiana
Kuemmerle, Tobias
author_role author
author2 Decarre, Julieta
Baumann, Matthias
Camino, Micaela
Di Blanco, Yamil
Gómez Valencia, Bibiana
Kuemmerle, Tobias
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Deforestación
Utilización de la Tierra
Modelos
Deforestation
Land Use
Models
Cambio de Uso del Suelo
Modelado de Ocupación
Región Chaqueña
Land-use Changes
Occupancy Modelling
topic Deforestación
Utilización de la Tierra
Modelos
Deforestation
Land Use
Models
Cambio de Uso del Suelo
Modelado de Ocupación
Región Chaqueña
Land-use Changes
Occupancy Modelling
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Land-use change is a global threat to biodiversity, but how land-use change affects species beyond the direct effect of habitat loss remains poorly understood. We developed an approach to isolate and map the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion on species of conservation concern, using the threatened giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) in the Gran Chaco as an example. We reconstructed anteater occupancy change between 1985 and 2015 by fitting single-season occupancy models with contemporary camera-trap data and backcasting the models to 1985 and 2000 land-cover/use maps. Based on this, we compared the area of forest loss (direct effect of agricultural expansion) with the area where forests remained but occupancy still declined (indirect effect of agricultural expansion). Anteater occupancy decreased substantially since 1985, particularly after 2000 when agriculture expanded rapidly. Between 1985 and 2015, ~ 64,000 km2 of forest disappeared, yet occupancy declined across a larger area (~ 102,000 km2), extending far into seemingly untransformed habitat. This suggests that widespread sink habitat has emerged due to agricultural land-use change, and that species may lose their habitat through direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, highlighting the urgent need for broad-scale conservation planning in the Chaco. Appropriate management responses could proactively protect more habitat where populations are stable, and restore habitat or address causes of mortality in areas where declines occur. Our work also highlights how occupancy modelling combined with remote sensing can help to detect the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, providing guidance for spatially targeting conservation strategies to halt extinctions.
Instituto de Recursos Biológicos
Fil: Semper Pascual, Asunción. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania
Fil: Decarre, Julieta. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Recursos Biológicos; Argentina
Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología del Litoral. Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación; Argentina
Fil: Di Blanco, Yamil. Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología Subtropical; Argentina. Asociación Civil Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlántico; Argentina
Fil: Gomez Valencia, Bibiana. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Grupo de Estudios de Sistemas Ecológicos en Ambientes Agrícolas; Argentina. Instituto de Investigaciones de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; Colombia
Fil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania. Humboldt-University Berlin. Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human Environment Systems; Alemania
description Land-use change is a global threat to biodiversity, but how land-use change affects species beyond the direct effect of habitat loss remains poorly understood. We developed an approach to isolate and map the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion on species of conservation concern, using the threatened giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) in the Gran Chaco as an example. We reconstructed anteater occupancy change between 1985 and 2015 by fitting single-season occupancy models with contemporary camera-trap data and backcasting the models to 1985 and 2000 land-cover/use maps. Based on this, we compared the area of forest loss (direct effect of agricultural expansion) with the area where forests remained but occupancy still declined (indirect effect of agricultural expansion). Anteater occupancy decreased substantially since 1985, particularly after 2000 when agriculture expanded rapidly. Between 1985 and 2015, ~ 64,000 km2 of forest disappeared, yet occupancy declined across a larger area (~ 102,000 km2), extending far into seemingly untransformed habitat. This suggests that widespread sink habitat has emerged due to agricultural land-use change, and that species may lose their habitat through direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, highlighting the urgent need for broad-scale conservation planning in the Chaco. Appropriate management responses could proactively protect more habitat where populations are stable, and restore habitat or address causes of mortality in areas where declines occur. Our work also highlights how occupancy modelling combined with remote sensing can help to detect the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, providing guidance for spatially targeting conservation strategies to halt extinctions.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-08-24T14:56:19Z
2020-08-24T14:56:19Z
2020-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/7760
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-1
0960-3115
1572-9710
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-1
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/7760
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-1
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-1
identifier_str_mv 0960-3115
1572-9710
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Biodiversity and Conservation (2020)
reponame:INTA Digital (INTA)
instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
reponame_str INTA Digital (INTA)
collection INTA Digital (INTA)
instname_str Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
repository.name.fl_str_mv INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
repository.mail.fl_str_mv tripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.ar
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