Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations
- Autores
- Semper Pascual, Asunción; Decarre, Julieta; Baumann, Matthias; Camino, Micaela; Di Blanco, Yamil; Gómez Valencia, Bibiana; Kuemmerle, Tobias
- Año de publicación
- 2020
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Land-use change is a global threat to biodiversity, but how land-use change affects species beyond the direct effect of habitat loss remains poorly understood. We developed an approach to isolate and map the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion on species of conservation concern, using the threatened giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) in the Gran Chaco as an example. We reconstructed anteater occupancy change between 1985 and 2015 by fitting single-season occupancy models with contemporary camera-trap data and backcasting the models to 1985 and 2000 land-cover/use maps. Based on this, we compared the area of forest loss (direct effect of agricultural expansion) with the area where forests remained but occupancy still declined (indirect effect of agricultural expansion). Anteater occupancy decreased substantially since 1985, particularly after 2000 when agriculture expanded rapidly. Between 1985 and 2015, ~ 64,000 km2 of forest disappeared, yet occupancy declined across a larger area (~ 102,000 km2), extending far into seemingly untransformed habitat. This suggests that widespread sink habitat has emerged due to agricultural land-use change, and that species may lose their habitat through direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, highlighting the urgent need for broad-scale conservation planning in the Chaco. Appropriate management responses could proactively protect more habitat where populations are stable, and restore habitat or address causes of mortality in areas where declines occur. Our work also highlights how occupancy modelling combined with remote sensing can help to detect the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, providing guidance for spatially targeting conservation strategies to halt extinctions.
Instituto de Recursos Biológicos
Fil: Semper Pascual, Asunción. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania
Fil: Decarre, Julieta. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Recursos Biológicos; Argentina
Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania
Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología del Litoral. Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación; Argentina
Fil: Di Blanco, Yamil. Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología Subtropical; Argentina. Asociación Civil Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlántico; Argentina
Fil: Gomez Valencia, Bibiana. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Grupo de Estudios de Sistemas Ecológicos en Ambientes Agrícolas; Argentina. Instituto de Investigaciones de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; Colombia
Fil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania. Humboldt-University Berlin. Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human Environment Systems; Alemania - Fuente
- Biodiversity and Conservation (2020)
- Materia
-
Deforestación
Utilización de la Tierra
Modelos
Deforestation
Land Use
Models
Cambio de Uso del Suelo
Modelado de Ocupación
Región Chaqueña
Land-use Changes
Occupancy Modelling - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
- OAI Identificador
- oai:localhost:20.500.12123/7760
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Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populationsSemper Pascual, AsunciónDecarre, JulietaBaumann, MatthiasCamino, MicaelaDi Blanco, YamilGómez Valencia, BibianaKuemmerle, TobiasDeforestaciónUtilización de la TierraModelosDeforestationLand UseModelsCambio de Uso del SueloModelado de OcupaciónRegión ChaqueñaLand-use ChangesOccupancy ModellingLand-use change is a global threat to biodiversity, but how land-use change affects species beyond the direct effect of habitat loss remains poorly understood. We developed an approach to isolate and map the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion on species of conservation concern, using the threatened giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) in the Gran Chaco as an example. We reconstructed anteater occupancy change between 1985 and 2015 by fitting single-season occupancy models with contemporary camera-trap data and backcasting the models to 1985 and 2000 land-cover/use maps. Based on this, we compared the area of forest loss (direct effect of agricultural expansion) with the area where forests remained but occupancy still declined (indirect effect of agricultural expansion). Anteater occupancy decreased substantially since 1985, particularly after 2000 when agriculture expanded rapidly. Between 1985 and 2015, ~ 64,000 km2 of forest disappeared, yet occupancy declined across a larger area (~ 102,000 km2), extending far into seemingly untransformed habitat. This suggests that widespread sink habitat has emerged due to agricultural land-use change, and that species may lose their habitat through direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, highlighting the urgent need for broad-scale conservation planning in the Chaco. Appropriate management responses could proactively protect more habitat where populations are stable, and restore habitat or address causes of mortality in areas where declines occur. Our work also highlights how occupancy modelling combined with remote sensing can help to detect the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, providing guidance for spatially targeting conservation strategies to halt extinctions.Instituto de Recursos BiológicosFil: Semper Pascual, Asunción. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Decarre, Julieta. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Recursos Biológicos; ArgentinaFil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología del Litoral. Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación; ArgentinaFil: Di Blanco, Yamil. Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología Subtropical; Argentina. Asociación Civil Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlántico; ArgentinaFil: Gomez Valencia, Bibiana. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Grupo de Estudios de Sistemas Ecológicos en Ambientes Agrícolas; Argentina. Instituto de Investigaciones de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; ColombiaFil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania. Humboldt-University Berlin. Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human Environment Systems; AlemaniaSpringer2020-08-24T14:56:19Z2020-08-24T14:56:19Z2020-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/7760https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-10960-31151572-9710https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-1Biodiversity and Conservation (2020)reponame:INTA Digital (INTA)instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuariaenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)2025-09-29T13:45:00Zoai:localhost:20.500.12123/7760instacron:INTAInstitucionalhttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/oai/requesttripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:l2025-09-29 13:45:00.887INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuariafalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations |
title |
Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations |
spellingShingle |
Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations Semper Pascual, Asunción Deforestación Utilización de la Tierra Modelos Deforestation Land Use Models Cambio de Uso del Suelo Modelado de Ocupación Región Chaqueña Land-use Changes Occupancy Modelling |
title_short |
Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations |
title_full |
Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations |
title_fullStr |
Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations |
title_sort |
Using occupancy models to assess the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural expansion on species’ populations |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Semper Pascual, Asunción Decarre, Julieta Baumann, Matthias Camino, Micaela Di Blanco, Yamil Gómez Valencia, Bibiana Kuemmerle, Tobias |
author |
Semper Pascual, Asunción |
author_facet |
Semper Pascual, Asunción Decarre, Julieta Baumann, Matthias Camino, Micaela Di Blanco, Yamil Gómez Valencia, Bibiana Kuemmerle, Tobias |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Decarre, Julieta Baumann, Matthias Camino, Micaela Di Blanco, Yamil Gómez Valencia, Bibiana Kuemmerle, Tobias |
author2_role |
author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Deforestación Utilización de la Tierra Modelos Deforestation Land Use Models Cambio de Uso del Suelo Modelado de Ocupación Región Chaqueña Land-use Changes Occupancy Modelling |
topic |
Deforestación Utilización de la Tierra Modelos Deforestation Land Use Models Cambio de Uso del Suelo Modelado de Ocupación Región Chaqueña Land-use Changes Occupancy Modelling |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Land-use change is a global threat to biodiversity, but how land-use change affects species beyond the direct effect of habitat loss remains poorly understood. We developed an approach to isolate and map the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion on species of conservation concern, using the threatened giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) in the Gran Chaco as an example. We reconstructed anteater occupancy change between 1985 and 2015 by fitting single-season occupancy models with contemporary camera-trap data and backcasting the models to 1985 and 2000 land-cover/use maps. Based on this, we compared the area of forest loss (direct effect of agricultural expansion) with the area where forests remained but occupancy still declined (indirect effect of agricultural expansion). Anteater occupancy decreased substantially since 1985, particularly after 2000 when agriculture expanded rapidly. Between 1985 and 2015, ~ 64,000 km2 of forest disappeared, yet occupancy declined across a larger area (~ 102,000 km2), extending far into seemingly untransformed habitat. This suggests that widespread sink habitat has emerged due to agricultural land-use change, and that species may lose their habitat through direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, highlighting the urgent need for broad-scale conservation planning in the Chaco. Appropriate management responses could proactively protect more habitat where populations are stable, and restore habitat or address causes of mortality in areas where declines occur. Our work also highlights how occupancy modelling combined with remote sensing can help to detect the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, providing guidance for spatially targeting conservation strategies to halt extinctions. Instituto de Recursos Biológicos Fil: Semper Pascual, Asunción. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania Fil: Decarre, Julieta. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Recursos Biológicos; Argentina Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología del Litoral. Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación; Argentina Fil: Di Blanco, Yamil. Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología Subtropical; Argentina. Asociación Civil Centro de Investigaciones del Bosque Atlántico; Argentina Fil: Gomez Valencia, Bibiana. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Grupo de Estudios de Sistemas Ecológicos en Ambientes Agrícolas; Argentina. Instituto de Investigaciones de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; Colombia Fil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Geography Department; Alemania. Humboldt-University Berlin. Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human Environment Systems; Alemania |
description |
Land-use change is a global threat to biodiversity, but how land-use change affects species beyond the direct effect of habitat loss remains poorly understood. We developed an approach to isolate and map the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion on species of conservation concern, using the threatened giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla) in the Gran Chaco as an example. We reconstructed anteater occupancy change between 1985 and 2015 by fitting single-season occupancy models with contemporary camera-trap data and backcasting the models to 1985 and 2000 land-cover/use maps. Based on this, we compared the area of forest loss (direct effect of agricultural expansion) with the area where forests remained but occupancy still declined (indirect effect of agricultural expansion). Anteater occupancy decreased substantially since 1985, particularly after 2000 when agriculture expanded rapidly. Between 1985 and 2015, ~ 64,000 km2 of forest disappeared, yet occupancy declined across a larger area (~ 102,000 km2), extending far into seemingly untransformed habitat. This suggests that widespread sink habitat has emerged due to agricultural land-use change, and that species may lose their habitat through direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, highlighting the urgent need for broad-scale conservation planning in the Chaco. Appropriate management responses could proactively protect more habitat where populations are stable, and restore habitat or address causes of mortality in areas where declines occur. Our work also highlights how occupancy modelling combined with remote sensing can help to detect the direct and indirect effects of agricultural expansion, providing guidance for spatially targeting conservation strategies to halt extinctions. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-08-24T14:56:19Z 2020-08-24T14:56:19Z 2020-08 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/7760 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-1 0960-3115 1572-9710 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-1 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/7760 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-020-02042-1 |
identifier_str_mv |
0960-3115 1572-9710 |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
Biodiversity and Conservation (2020) reponame:INTA Digital (INTA) instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria |
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INTA Digital (INTA) |
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INTA Digital (INTA) |
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Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria |
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INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria |
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tripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.ar |
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