Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps
- Autores
- Aramburu Merlos, Fernando; Monzon, Juan Pablo; Mercau, Jorge Luis; Taboada, Miguel Angel; Andrade, Fernando Hector; Hall, Antonio Juan; Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel; Cassman, Kenneth G.; Grassini, Patricio
- Año de publicación
- 2015
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Favorable climate and soils for rainfed crop production, together with a relatively low population density, results in 70–90% of Argentina grain production being exported. No assessment to date has tried to estimate the potential for extra grain production for soybean, wheat and maize, which account for 78% of total harvested area, by yield gap closure on existing cropland area and its impact at a global scale. The objectives of this paper are (i) to estimate how much additional grain could be produced without expanding crop area by closing yield gaps in Argentina, (ii) to investigate how this production and yield gaps varies across regions and years, and (iii) to analyze how these inter-annual variations are related to El Niño—Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). Production increase on existing crop area was assessed for soybean, wheat and maize by quantifying the yield gap (Yg), that is, the difference between water-limited yield potential (Yw) and actual yield (Ya). A bottom-up approach was followed to estimate Yw and Yg, in which these parameters were first estimated for specific locations in major crop producing areas and subsequently up-scaled to country level based on spatial distribution of crop area and climate zones. Locally-calibrated crop simulation models were used to estimate Yw at each selected location based on long-term weather data and dominant soil types and management practices. For the analyzed period, the national level Yg represented 41% of Yw for both wheat and maize and 32% of the Yw for soybean. If farmers had closed Yg from these levels to 20% of Yw, Argentina could have increased soybean, wheat and maize production by a respective 7.4, 5.2, and 9.2 Mt, without expanding cropland area. This additional production would have represented an increase of 9%, 4%, and 9% of soybean, wheat, and maize global exports. This potential grain surplus was, however, highly variable because of the ENSO phenomenon: attainable soybean production was 12 Mt higher in favorable “El Niño” years compared with unfavorable “La Niña” years. Interestingly, Yg tended to be higher in wet years, suggesting that farmers do not take full advantage of years with favorable conditions for rainfed crop production. Regional variation in Yg was found in Argentina highlighting the usefulness of this work as a framework to target research and, ultimately, reduce gaps in areas where current yields are well below their potential.
EEA Balcarce
Fil: Aramburu Merlos, Fernando. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce. Unidad Integrada. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina
Fil: Monzon, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina
Fil: Mercau, Jorge Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria San Luis; Argentina
Fil: Taboada, Miguel Angel. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Suelos; Argentina
Fil: Andrade, Fernando Hector. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce. Unidad Integrada. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina
Fil: Hall, Antonio Juan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; Argentina
Fil: Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina
Fil: Cassman, Kenneth G. Universidad de Nebraska - Lincoln. Department of Agronomy and Horticulture; Estados Unidos
Fil: Grassini, Patricio. Universidad de Nebraska - Lincoln. Department of Agronomy and Horticulture; Estados Unidos - Fuente
- Field Crops Research 184 : 145-154 (December 2015)
- Materia
-
Cultivos
Rendimiento
Producción Vegetal
Soja
Maíz
Trigo
Crops
Yields
Crop Production
Soybeans
Maize
Wheat
Argentina - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
- Repositorio
.jpg)
- Institución
- Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
- OAI Identificador
- oai:localhost:20.500.12123/4942
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gapsAramburu Merlos, FernandoMonzon, Juan PabloMercau, Jorge LuisTaboada, Miguel AngelAndrade, Fernando HectorHall, Antonio JuanJobbagy Gampel, Esteban GabrielCassman, Kenneth G.Grassini, PatricioCultivosRendimientoProducción VegetalSojaMaízTrigoCropsYieldsCrop ProductionSoybeansMaizeWheatArgentinaFavorable climate and soils for rainfed crop production, together with a relatively low population density, results in 70–90% of Argentina grain production being exported. No assessment to date has tried to estimate the potential for extra grain production for soybean, wheat and maize, which account for 78% of total harvested area, by yield gap closure on existing cropland area and its impact at a global scale. The objectives of this paper are (i) to estimate how much additional grain could be produced without expanding crop area by closing yield gaps in Argentina, (ii) to investigate how this production and yield gaps varies across regions and years, and (iii) to analyze how these inter-annual variations are related to El Niño—Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). Production increase on existing crop area was assessed for soybean, wheat and maize by quantifying the yield gap (Yg), that is, the difference between water-limited yield potential (Yw) and actual yield (Ya). A bottom-up approach was followed to estimate Yw and Yg, in which these parameters were first estimated for specific locations in major crop producing areas and subsequently up-scaled to country level based on spatial distribution of crop area and climate zones. Locally-calibrated crop simulation models were used to estimate Yw at each selected location based on long-term weather data and dominant soil types and management practices. For the analyzed period, the national level Yg represented 41% of Yw for both wheat and maize and 32% of the Yw for soybean. If farmers had closed Yg from these levels to 20% of Yw, Argentina could have increased soybean, wheat and maize production by a respective 7.4, 5.2, and 9.2 Mt, without expanding cropland area. This additional production would have represented an increase of 9%, 4%, and 9% of soybean, wheat, and maize global exports. This potential grain surplus was, however, highly variable because of the ENSO phenomenon: attainable soybean production was 12 Mt higher in favorable “El Niño” years compared with unfavorable “La Niña” years. Interestingly, Yg tended to be higher in wet years, suggesting that farmers do not take full advantage of years with favorable conditions for rainfed crop production. Regional variation in Yg was found in Argentina highlighting the usefulness of this work as a framework to target research and, ultimately, reduce gaps in areas where current yields are well below their potential.EEA BalcarceFil: Aramburu Merlos, Fernando. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce. Unidad Integrada. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; ArgentinaFil: Monzon, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; ArgentinaFil: Mercau, Jorge Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria San Luis; ArgentinaFil: Taboada, Miguel Angel. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Suelos; ArgentinaFil: Andrade, Fernando Hector. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce. Unidad Integrada. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; ArgentinaFil: Hall, Antonio Juan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; ArgentinaFil: Cassman, Kenneth G. Universidad de Nebraska - Lincoln. Department of Agronomy and Horticulture; Estados UnidosFil: Grassini, Patricio. Universidad de Nebraska - Lincoln. Department of Agronomy and Horticulture; Estados UnidosElsevier2019-04-22T14:16:14Z2019-04-22T14:16:14Z2015-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378429015300599http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/49420378-4290https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2015.10.001Field Crops Research 184 : 145-154 (December 2015)reponame:INTA Digital (INTA)instname:Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuariaenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)2025-09-04T09:47:56Zoai:localhost:20.500.12123/4942instacron:INTAInstitucionalhttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://repositorio.inta.gob.ar/oai/requesttripaldi.nicolas@inta.gob.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:l2025-09-04 09:47:57.127INTA Digital (INTA) - Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuariafalse |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps |
| title |
Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps |
| spellingShingle |
Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps Aramburu Merlos, Fernando Cultivos Rendimiento Producción Vegetal Soja Maíz Trigo Crops Yields Crop Production Soybeans Maize Wheat Argentina |
| title_short |
Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps |
| title_full |
Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps |
| title_fullStr |
Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps |
| title_sort |
Potential for crop production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Aramburu Merlos, Fernando Monzon, Juan Pablo Mercau, Jorge Luis Taboada, Miguel Angel Andrade, Fernando Hector Hall, Antonio Juan Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel Cassman, Kenneth G. Grassini, Patricio |
| author |
Aramburu Merlos, Fernando |
| author_facet |
Aramburu Merlos, Fernando Monzon, Juan Pablo Mercau, Jorge Luis Taboada, Miguel Angel Andrade, Fernando Hector Hall, Antonio Juan Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel Cassman, Kenneth G. Grassini, Patricio |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Monzon, Juan Pablo Mercau, Jorge Luis Taboada, Miguel Angel Andrade, Fernando Hector Hall, Antonio Juan Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel Cassman, Kenneth G. Grassini, Patricio |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author author |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Cultivos Rendimiento Producción Vegetal Soja Maíz Trigo Crops Yields Crop Production Soybeans Maize Wheat Argentina |
| topic |
Cultivos Rendimiento Producción Vegetal Soja Maíz Trigo Crops Yields Crop Production Soybeans Maize Wheat Argentina |
| dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Favorable climate and soils for rainfed crop production, together with a relatively low population density, results in 70–90% of Argentina grain production being exported. No assessment to date has tried to estimate the potential for extra grain production for soybean, wheat and maize, which account for 78% of total harvested area, by yield gap closure on existing cropland area and its impact at a global scale. The objectives of this paper are (i) to estimate how much additional grain could be produced without expanding crop area by closing yield gaps in Argentina, (ii) to investigate how this production and yield gaps varies across regions and years, and (iii) to analyze how these inter-annual variations are related to El Niño—Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). Production increase on existing crop area was assessed for soybean, wheat and maize by quantifying the yield gap (Yg), that is, the difference between water-limited yield potential (Yw) and actual yield (Ya). A bottom-up approach was followed to estimate Yw and Yg, in which these parameters were first estimated for specific locations in major crop producing areas and subsequently up-scaled to country level based on spatial distribution of crop area and climate zones. Locally-calibrated crop simulation models were used to estimate Yw at each selected location based on long-term weather data and dominant soil types and management practices. For the analyzed period, the national level Yg represented 41% of Yw for both wheat and maize and 32% of the Yw for soybean. If farmers had closed Yg from these levels to 20% of Yw, Argentina could have increased soybean, wheat and maize production by a respective 7.4, 5.2, and 9.2 Mt, without expanding cropland area. This additional production would have represented an increase of 9%, 4%, and 9% of soybean, wheat, and maize global exports. This potential grain surplus was, however, highly variable because of the ENSO phenomenon: attainable soybean production was 12 Mt higher in favorable “El Niño” years compared with unfavorable “La Niña” years. Interestingly, Yg tended to be higher in wet years, suggesting that farmers do not take full advantage of years with favorable conditions for rainfed crop production. Regional variation in Yg was found in Argentina highlighting the usefulness of this work as a framework to target research and, ultimately, reduce gaps in areas where current yields are well below their potential. EEA Balcarce Fil: Aramburu Merlos, Fernando. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce. Unidad Integrada. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina Fil: Monzon, Juan Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina Fil: Mercau, Jorge Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria San Luis; Argentina Fil: Taboada, Miguel Angel. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Suelos; Argentina Fil: Andrade, Fernando Hector. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce. Unidad Integrada. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina Fil: Hall, Antonio Juan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; Argentina Fil: Jobbagy Gampel, Esteban Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Luis. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi". Universidad Nacional de San Luis. Facultad de Ciencias Físico, Matemáticas y Naturales. Instituto de Matemática Aplicada de San Luis "Prof. Ezio Marchi"; Argentina Fil: Cassman, Kenneth G. Universidad de Nebraska - Lincoln. Department of Agronomy and Horticulture; Estados Unidos Fil: Grassini, Patricio. Universidad de Nebraska - Lincoln. Department of Agronomy and Horticulture; Estados Unidos |
| description |
Favorable climate and soils for rainfed crop production, together with a relatively low population density, results in 70–90% of Argentina grain production being exported. No assessment to date has tried to estimate the potential for extra grain production for soybean, wheat and maize, which account for 78% of total harvested area, by yield gap closure on existing cropland area and its impact at a global scale. The objectives of this paper are (i) to estimate how much additional grain could be produced without expanding crop area by closing yield gaps in Argentina, (ii) to investigate how this production and yield gaps varies across regions and years, and (iii) to analyze how these inter-annual variations are related to El Niño—Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). Production increase on existing crop area was assessed for soybean, wheat and maize by quantifying the yield gap (Yg), that is, the difference between water-limited yield potential (Yw) and actual yield (Ya). A bottom-up approach was followed to estimate Yw and Yg, in which these parameters were first estimated for specific locations in major crop producing areas and subsequently up-scaled to country level based on spatial distribution of crop area and climate zones. Locally-calibrated crop simulation models were used to estimate Yw at each selected location based on long-term weather data and dominant soil types and management practices. For the analyzed period, the national level Yg represented 41% of Yw for both wheat and maize and 32% of the Yw for soybean. If farmers had closed Yg from these levels to 20% of Yw, Argentina could have increased soybean, wheat and maize production by a respective 7.4, 5.2, and 9.2 Mt, without expanding cropland area. This additional production would have represented an increase of 9%, 4%, and 9% of soybean, wheat, and maize global exports. This potential grain surplus was, however, highly variable because of the ENSO phenomenon: attainable soybean production was 12 Mt higher in favorable “El Niño” years compared with unfavorable “La Niña” years. Interestingly, Yg tended to be higher in wet years, suggesting that farmers do not take full advantage of years with favorable conditions for rainfed crop production. Regional variation in Yg was found in Argentina highlighting the usefulness of this work as a framework to target research and, ultimately, reduce gaps in areas where current yields are well below their potential. |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2015-12 2019-04-22T14:16:14Z 2019-04-22T14:16:14Z |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
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article |
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publishedVersion |
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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378429015300599 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/4942 0378-4290 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2015.10.001 |
| url |
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378429015300599 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12123/4942 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2015.10.001 |
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0378-4290 |
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eng |
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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) |
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application/pdf |
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Elsevier |
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Elsevier |
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