Purported flaws in management strategy evaluation: Basic problems or misinterpretations?

• Autores: Butterworth, Douglas S.; Bentley, Nokome; De Oliveira, José A. A.; Donovan, Gregory P.; Kell, Laurence T.; Parma, Ana María; Punt, André E.; Sainsbury, Keith J.; Smith, Anthony D. M.; Stokes, T. Kevin
• Año de publicación: 2010
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: Management Procedure; Management Strategy Evaluation; Monte Carlo Simulation; Risk Estimation; Uncertainty
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Rochet and Rice, while recognizing management strategy evaluation (MSE) as an important step forward in fisheries management, level a number of criticisms at its implementation. Some of their points are sound, such as the need for care in representing uncertainties and for thorough documentation of the process. However, others evidence important misunderstandings. Although the difficulties in estimating tail probabilities and risks, as discussed by Rochet and Rice, are well known, their arguments that Efron's nonparametric bootstrap re-sampling method underestimates the probabilities of low values are flawed. In any case, though, the focus of MSEs is primarily on comparing performance and robustness across alternative management procedures (MPs), rather than on estimating absolute levels of risk. Qualitative methods can augment MSE, but their limitations also need to be recognized. Intelligence certainly needs to play a role in fisheries management, but not at the level of tinkering in the provision of annual advice, which Rochet and Rice apparently advocate, inter alia because this runs the risk of advice following noise rather than signal. Instead, intelligence should come into play in the exercise of oversight through the process of multiannual reviews of MSE and associated MPs. A number of examples are given of the process of interaction with stakeholders which should characterize MSE.
Fil: Butterworth, Douglas S.. University of Cape Town; Sudáfrica
Fil: Bentley, Nokome. Trophia Ltd; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: De Oliveira, José A. A.. Centre for Environment. Fisheries and Aquaculture Science; Reino Unido
Fil: Donovan, Gregory P.. International Whaling Commission; Reino Unido
Fil: Kell, Laurence T.. ICCAT Secretariat; España
Fil: Parma, Ana María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Nacional Patagónico; Argentina
Fil: Punt, André E.. University of Washington; Estados Unidos. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research; Australia
Fil: Sainsbury, Keith J.. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Smith, Anthony D. M.. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research; Australia
Fil: Stokes, T. Kevin. No especifica;