El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries

Autores
Li, Jimbao; Xie, Shang Ping; Cook, Edward; Morales, Mariano Santos; Chistrie, Duncan A.; Johnson, Nataniel C.; Chen, Fahu; D'Arrigo, Rossane; Fowler, Anthony M.; Gou, Xiaohua; Fang, Keyan
Año de publicación
2013
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal-centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations with equatorial Pacific corals and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming, suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections.
Fil: Li, Jimbao. University of Hong Kong; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos
Fil: Xie, Shang Ping. Ocean University of China; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos. University of California at San Diego; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cook, Edward. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Chistrie, Duncan A.. Center for Climate and Resilience Research; Chile. Universidad Austral de Chile; Chile
Fil: Johnson, Nataniel C.. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos
Fil: Chen, Fahu. Lanzhou University; China
Fil: D'Arrigo, Rossane. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Fowler, Anthony M.. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Gou, Xiaohua. Lanzhou University; China
Fil: Fang, Keyan. Lanzhou University; China
Materia
Enso
Global Warming
Tree Ring Reconstruction
Palaeoclimate
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/3005
Acceder
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spelling El Niño modulations over the past seven centuriesLi, JimbaoXie, Shang PingCook, EdwardMorales, Mariano SantosChistrie, Duncan A.Johnson, Nataniel C.Chen, FahuD'Arrigo, RossaneFowler, Anthony M.Gou, XiaohuaFang, KeyanEnsoGlobal WarmingTree Ring ReconstructionPalaeoclimatehttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal-centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations with equatorial Pacific corals and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming, suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections.Fil: Li, Jimbao. University of Hong Kong; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados UnidosFil: Xie, Shang Ping. Ocean University of China; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos. University of California at San Diego; Estados UnidosFil: Cook, Edward. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Chistrie, Duncan A.. Center for Climate and Resilience Research; Chile. Universidad Austral de Chile; ChileFil: Johnson, Nataniel C.. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados UnidosFil: Chen, Fahu. Lanzhou University; ChinaFil: D'Arrigo, Rossane. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Fowler, Anthony M.. University of Auckland; Nueva ZelandaFil: Gou, Xiaohua. Lanzhou University; ChinaFil: Fang, Keyan. Lanzhou University; ChinaNature Publishing Group2013-07-02info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/3005Li, Jimbao; Xie, Shang Ping; Cook, Edward; Morales, Mariano Santos; Chistrie, Duncan A.; et al.; El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 3; 9; 2-7-2013; 822-8261758-678X1758-6798enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/nclimate1936info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1936info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:59:53Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/3005instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:59:53.546CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries
title El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries
spellingShingle El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries
Li, Jimbao
Enso
Global Warming
Tree Ring Reconstruction
Palaeoclimate
title_short El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries
title_full El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries
title_fullStr El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries
title_full_unstemmed El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries
title_sort El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Li, Jimbao
Xie, Shang Ping
Cook, Edward
Morales, Mariano Santos
Chistrie, Duncan A.
Johnson, Nataniel C.
Chen, Fahu
D'Arrigo, Rossane
Fowler, Anthony M.
Gou, Xiaohua
Fang, Keyan
author Li, Jimbao
author_facet Li, Jimbao
Xie, Shang Ping
Cook, Edward
Morales, Mariano Santos
Chistrie, Duncan A.
Johnson, Nataniel C.
Chen, Fahu
D'Arrigo, Rossane
Fowler, Anthony M.
Gou, Xiaohua
Fang, Keyan
author_role author
author2 Xie, Shang Ping
Cook, Edward
Morales, Mariano Santos
Chistrie, Duncan A.
Johnson, Nataniel C.
Chen, Fahu
D'Arrigo, Rossane
Fowler, Anthony M.
Gou, Xiaohua
Fang, Keyan
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Enso
Global Warming
Tree Ring Reconstruction
Palaeoclimate
topic Enso
Global Warming
Tree Ring Reconstruction
Palaeoclimate
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal-centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations with equatorial Pacific corals and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming, suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections.
Fil: Li, Jimbao. University of Hong Kong; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos
Fil: Xie, Shang Ping. Ocean University of China; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos. University of California at San Diego; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cook, Edward. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Chistrie, Duncan A.. Center for Climate and Resilience Research; Chile. Universidad Austral de Chile; Chile
Fil: Johnson, Nataniel C.. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos
Fil: Chen, Fahu. Lanzhou University; China
Fil: D'Arrigo, Rossane. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Fowler, Anthony M.. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Gou, Xiaohua. Lanzhou University; China
Fil: Fang, Keyan. Lanzhou University; China
description Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal-centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations with equatorial Pacific corals and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming, suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-07-02
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/3005
Li, Jimbao; Xie, Shang Ping; Cook, Edward; Morales, Mariano Santos; Chistrie, Duncan A.; et al.; El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 3; 9; 2-7-2013; 822-826
1758-678X
1758-6798
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/3005
identifier_str_mv Li, Jimbao; Xie, Shang Ping; Cook, Edward; Morales, Mariano Santos; Chistrie, Duncan A.; et al.; El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 3; 9; 2-7-2013; 822-826
1758-678X
1758-6798
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/nclimate1936
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1936
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature Publishing Group
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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