El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries
- Autores
- Li, Jimbao; Xie, Shang Ping; Cook, Edward; Morales, Mariano Santos; Chistrie, Duncan A.; Johnson, Nataniel C.; Chen, Fahu; D'Arrigo, Rossane; Fowler, Anthony M.; Gou, Xiaohua; Fang, Keyan
- Año de publicación
- 2013
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal-centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations with equatorial Pacific corals and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming, suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections.
Fil: Li, Jimbao. University of Hong Kong; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos
Fil: Xie, Shang Ping. Ocean University of China; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos. University of California at San Diego; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cook, Edward. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Chistrie, Duncan A.. Center for Climate and Resilience Research; Chile. Universidad Austral de Chile; Chile
Fil: Johnson, Nataniel C.. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos
Fil: Chen, Fahu. Lanzhou University; China
Fil: D'Arrigo, Rossane. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Fowler, Anthony M.. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Gou, Xiaohua. Lanzhou University; China
Fil: Fang, Keyan. Lanzhou University; China - Materia
-
Enso
Global Warming
Tree Ring Reconstruction
Palaeoclimate - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/3005
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
id |
CONICETDig_e35c3375996943c1f873942526b32fce |
---|---|
oai_identifier_str |
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/3005 |
network_acronym_str |
CONICETDig |
repository_id_str |
3498 |
network_name_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
spelling |
El Niño modulations over the past seven centuriesLi, JimbaoXie, Shang PingCook, EdwardMorales, Mariano SantosChistrie, Duncan A.Johnson, Nataniel C.Chen, FahuD'Arrigo, RossaneFowler, Anthony M.Gou, XiaohuaFang, KeyanEnsoGlobal WarmingTree Ring ReconstructionPalaeoclimatehttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal-centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations with equatorial Pacific corals and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming, suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections.Fil: Li, Jimbao. University of Hong Kong; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados UnidosFil: Xie, Shang Ping. Ocean University of China; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos. University of California at San Diego; Estados UnidosFil: Cook, Edward. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Chistrie, Duncan A.. Center for Climate and Resilience Research; Chile. Universidad Austral de Chile; ChileFil: Johnson, Nataniel C.. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados UnidosFil: Chen, Fahu. Lanzhou University; ChinaFil: D'Arrigo, Rossane. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Fowler, Anthony M.. University of Auckland; Nueva ZelandaFil: Gou, Xiaohua. Lanzhou University; ChinaFil: Fang, Keyan. Lanzhou University; ChinaNature Publishing Group2013-07-02info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/3005Li, Jimbao; Xie, Shang Ping; Cook, Edward; Morales, Mariano Santos; Chistrie, Duncan A.; et al.; El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 3; 9; 2-7-2013; 822-8261758-678X1758-6798enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/nclimate1936info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1936info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:56:08Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/3005instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:56:08.587CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries |
title |
El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries |
spellingShingle |
El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries Li, Jimbao Enso Global Warming Tree Ring Reconstruction Palaeoclimate |
title_short |
El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries |
title_full |
El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries |
title_fullStr |
El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries |
title_full_unstemmed |
El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries |
title_sort |
El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Li, Jimbao Xie, Shang Ping Cook, Edward Morales, Mariano Santos Chistrie, Duncan A. Johnson, Nataniel C. Chen, Fahu D'Arrigo, Rossane Fowler, Anthony M. Gou, Xiaohua Fang, Keyan |
author |
Li, Jimbao |
author_facet |
Li, Jimbao Xie, Shang Ping Cook, Edward Morales, Mariano Santos Chistrie, Duncan A. Johnson, Nataniel C. Chen, Fahu D'Arrigo, Rossane Fowler, Anthony M. Gou, Xiaohua Fang, Keyan |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Xie, Shang Ping Cook, Edward Morales, Mariano Santos Chistrie, Duncan A. Johnson, Nataniel C. Chen, Fahu D'Arrigo, Rossane Fowler, Anthony M. Gou, Xiaohua Fang, Keyan |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Enso Global Warming Tree Ring Reconstruction Palaeoclimate |
topic |
Enso Global Warming Tree Ring Reconstruction Palaeoclimate |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal-centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations with equatorial Pacific corals and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming, suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections. Fil: Li, Jimbao. University of Hong Kong; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos Fil: Xie, Shang Ping. Ocean University of China; China. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos. University of California at San Diego; Estados Unidos Fil: Cook, Edward. Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Morales, Mariano Santos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Científico Tecnológico Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina Fil: Chistrie, Duncan A.. Center for Climate and Resilience Research; Chile. Universidad Austral de Chile; Chile Fil: Johnson, Nataniel C.. University of Hawaii at Manoa; Estados Unidos Fil: Chen, Fahu. Lanzhou University; China Fil: D'Arrigo, Rossane. Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Fowler, Anthony M.. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Gou, Xiaohua. Lanzhou University; China Fil: Fang, Keyan. Lanzhou University; China |
description |
Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal-centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high correlations with equatorial Pacific corals and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to continuing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming, suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative perturbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections. |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-07-02 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/3005 Li, Jimbao; Xie, Shang Ping; Cook, Edward; Morales, Mariano Santos; Chistrie, Duncan A.; et al.; El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 3; 9; 2-7-2013; 822-826 1758-678X 1758-6798 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/3005 |
identifier_str_mv |
Li, Jimbao; Xie, Shang Ping; Cook, Edward; Morales, Mariano Santos; Chistrie, Duncan A.; et al.; El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Climate Change; 3; 9; 2-7-2013; 822-826 1758-678X 1758-6798 |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/nclimate1936 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1936 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Nature Publishing Group |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Nature Publishing Group |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
_version_ |
1842269386493132801 |
score |
13.13397 |