Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond

Autores
de Jager, C.; Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.
Año de publicación
2009
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years).
Fil: de Jager, C.. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; Países Bajos
Fil: Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería. Departamento de Física; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Materia
GEOMAGNETIC INDEX
SOLAR DYNAMO
SOLAR VARIABILITY
SUNSPOTS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/139027

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyondde Jager, C.Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.GEOMAGNETIC INDEXSOLAR DYNAMOSOLAR VARIABILITYSUNSPOTShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years).Fil: de Jager, C.. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; Países BajosFil: Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería. Departamento de Física; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaElsevier2009-02info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/139027de Jager, C.; Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.; Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond; Elsevier; Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics; 71; 2; 2-2009; 239-2451364-6826CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jastp.2008.11.006info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:13:53Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/139027instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:13:54.123CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond
title Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond
spellingShingle Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond
de Jager, C.
GEOMAGNETIC INDEX
SOLAR DYNAMO
SOLAR VARIABILITY
SUNSPOTS
title_short Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond
title_full Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond
title_fullStr Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond
title_sort Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv de Jager, C.
Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.
author de Jager, C.
author_facet de Jager, C.
Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.
author_role author
author2 Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv GEOMAGNETIC INDEX
SOLAR DYNAMO
SOLAR VARIABILITY
SUNSPOTS
topic GEOMAGNETIC INDEX
SOLAR DYNAMO
SOLAR VARIABILITY
SUNSPOTS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years).
Fil: de Jager, C.. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; Países Bajos
Fil: Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería. Departamento de Física; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
description Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years).
publishDate 2009
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2009-02
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/139027
de Jager, C.; Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.; Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond; Elsevier; Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics; 71; 2; 2-2009; 239-245
1364-6826
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/139027
identifier_str_mv de Jager, C.; Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.; Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond; Elsevier; Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics; 71; 2; 2-2009; 239-245
1364-6826
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jastp.2008.11.006
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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