Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond
- Autores
- de Jager, C.; Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.
- Año de publicación
- 2009
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years).
Fil: de Jager, C.. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; Países Bajos
Fil: Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería. Departamento de Física; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina - Materia
-
GEOMAGNETIC INDEX
SOLAR DYNAMO
SOLAR VARIABILITY
SUNSPOTS - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/139027
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyondde Jager, C.Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.GEOMAGNETIC INDEXSOLAR DYNAMOSOLAR VARIABILITYSUNSPOTShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years).Fil: de Jager, C.. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; Países BajosFil: Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería. Departamento de Física; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaElsevier2009-02info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/139027de Jager, C.; Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.; Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond; Elsevier; Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics; 71; 2; 2-2009; 239-2451364-6826CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jastp.2008.11.006info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:13:53Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/139027instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:13:54.123CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond |
title |
Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond |
spellingShingle |
Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond de Jager, C. GEOMAGNETIC INDEX SOLAR DYNAMO SOLAR VARIABILITY SUNSPOTS |
title_short |
Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond |
title_full |
Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond |
title_sort |
Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
de Jager, C. Duhau, Silvia Noemi C. |
author |
de Jager, C. |
author_facet |
de Jager, C. Duhau, Silvia Noemi C. |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Duhau, Silvia Noemi C. |
author2_role |
author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
GEOMAGNETIC INDEX SOLAR DYNAMO SOLAR VARIABILITY SUNSPOTS |
topic |
GEOMAGNETIC INDEX SOLAR DYNAMO SOLAR VARIABILITY SUNSPOTS |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years). Fil: de Jager, C.. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research; Países Bajos Fil: Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería. Departamento de Física; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina |
description |
Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical-statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60-100 years). |
publishDate |
2009 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2009-02 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/139027 de Jager, C.; Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.; Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond; Elsevier; Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics; 71; 2; 2-2009; 239-245 1364-6826 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/139027 |
identifier_str_mv |
de Jager, C.; Duhau, Silvia Noemi C.; Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond; Elsevier; Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics; 71; 2; 2-2009; 239-245 1364-6826 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jastp.2008.11.006 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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13.070432 |