Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application

Autores
Fabrizio, M. C.; Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin; Bartoloni, Norberto Jose
Año de publicación
2014
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas disease, has expanded from rural endemic to urban areas due to migration. This so-called urban Chagas is an emerging health problem in American, European, Australian and Japanese cities. We present a mathematical model to analyse the dynamics of urban Chagas to better understand its epidemiology. The model considers the three clinical stages of the disease and the main routes of inter-human transmission. To overcome the complexities of the infection dynamics, the next-generation matrix method was developed. We deduced expressions which allowed estimating the number of new infections generated by an infected individual through each transmission route at each disease stage, the basic reproduction number and the number of individuals at each disease stage at the outbreak of the infection. The analysis was applied to Buenos Aires city (Argentina). We estimated that 94% of the new infections are generated by individuals in the chronic indeterminate stage. When migration was not considered, the infection disappeared slowly and R0 = 0·079, whereas when migration was considered, the number of individuals in each stage of the infection tended to stabilize. The expressions can be used to estimate different numbers of infected individuals in any place where only inter-human transmission is possible.
Fil: Fabrizio, M. C.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia; Argentina
Fil: Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Bartoloni, Norberto Jose. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia; Argentina
Materia
Urban Chagas
Next-Generation Matrix
Basic Reproduction Number
Mathematical Model
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/19610
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and applicationFabrizio, M. C.Schweigmann, Nicolas JoaquinBartoloni, Norberto JoseUrban ChagasNext-Generation MatrixBasic Reproduction NumberMathematical Modelhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas disease, has expanded from rural endemic to urban areas due to migration. This so-called urban Chagas is an emerging health problem in American, European, Australian and Japanese cities. We present a mathematical model to analyse the dynamics of urban Chagas to better understand its epidemiology. The model considers the three clinical stages of the disease and the main routes of inter-human transmission. To overcome the complexities of the infection dynamics, the next-generation matrix method was developed. We deduced expressions which allowed estimating the number of new infections generated by an infected individual through each transmission route at each disease stage, the basic reproduction number and the number of individuals at each disease stage at the outbreak of the infection. The analysis was applied to Buenos Aires city (Argentina). We estimated that 94% of the new infections are generated by individuals in the chronic indeterminate stage. When migration was not considered, the infection disappeared slowly and R0 = 0·079, whereas when migration was considered, the number of individuals in each stage of the infection tended to stabilize. The expressions can be used to estimate different numbers of infected individuals in any place where only inter-human transmission is possible.Fil: Fabrizio, M. C.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia; ArgentinaFil: Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Bartoloni, Norberto Jose. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia; ArgentinaCambridge University Press2014-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/19610Fabrizio, M. C.; Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin; Bartoloni, Norberto Jose; Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application; Cambridge University Press; Parasitology; 141; 6; 5-2014; 837-8480031-1820CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S0031182013002199info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/parasitology/article/modelling-interhuman-transmission-dynamics-of-chagas-disease-analysis-and-application/31B84D8DEDC8046D86A41A289B7E69CFinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:47:34Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/19610instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:47:35.115CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application
title Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application
spellingShingle Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application
Fabrizio, M. C.
Urban Chagas
Next-Generation Matrix
Basic Reproduction Number
Mathematical Model
title_short Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application
title_full Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application
title_fullStr Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application
title_full_unstemmed Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application
title_sort Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Fabrizio, M. C.
Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin
Bartoloni, Norberto Jose
author Fabrizio, M. C.
author_facet Fabrizio, M. C.
Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin
Bartoloni, Norberto Jose
author_role author
author2 Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin
Bartoloni, Norberto Jose
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Urban Chagas
Next-Generation Matrix
Basic Reproduction Number
Mathematical Model
topic Urban Chagas
Next-Generation Matrix
Basic Reproduction Number
Mathematical Model
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas disease, has expanded from rural endemic to urban areas due to migration. This so-called urban Chagas is an emerging health problem in American, European, Australian and Japanese cities. We present a mathematical model to analyse the dynamics of urban Chagas to better understand its epidemiology. The model considers the three clinical stages of the disease and the main routes of inter-human transmission. To overcome the complexities of the infection dynamics, the next-generation matrix method was developed. We deduced expressions which allowed estimating the number of new infections generated by an infected individual through each transmission route at each disease stage, the basic reproduction number and the number of individuals at each disease stage at the outbreak of the infection. The analysis was applied to Buenos Aires city (Argentina). We estimated that 94% of the new infections are generated by individuals in the chronic indeterminate stage. When migration was not considered, the infection disappeared slowly and R0 = 0·079, whereas when migration was considered, the number of individuals in each stage of the infection tended to stabilize. The expressions can be used to estimate different numbers of infected individuals in any place where only inter-human transmission is possible.
Fil: Fabrizio, M. C.. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia; Argentina
Fil: Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Bartoloni, Norberto Jose. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomia; Argentina
description Transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas disease, has expanded from rural endemic to urban areas due to migration. This so-called urban Chagas is an emerging health problem in American, European, Australian and Japanese cities. We present a mathematical model to analyse the dynamics of urban Chagas to better understand its epidemiology. The model considers the three clinical stages of the disease and the main routes of inter-human transmission. To overcome the complexities of the infection dynamics, the next-generation matrix method was developed. We deduced expressions which allowed estimating the number of new infections generated by an infected individual through each transmission route at each disease stage, the basic reproduction number and the number of individuals at each disease stage at the outbreak of the infection. The analysis was applied to Buenos Aires city (Argentina). We estimated that 94% of the new infections are generated by individuals in the chronic indeterminate stage. When migration was not considered, the infection disappeared slowly and R0 = 0·079, whereas when migration was considered, the number of individuals in each stage of the infection tended to stabilize. The expressions can be used to estimate different numbers of infected individuals in any place where only inter-human transmission is possible.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/19610
Fabrizio, M. C.; Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin; Bartoloni, Norberto Jose; Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application; Cambridge University Press; Parasitology; 141; 6; 5-2014; 837-848
0031-1820
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/19610
identifier_str_mv Fabrizio, M. C.; Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin; Bartoloni, Norberto Jose; Modelling inter-human transmission dynamics of Chagas disease: analysis and application; Cambridge University Press; Parasitology; 141; 6; 5-2014; 837-848
0031-1820
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/S0031182013002199
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/parasitology/article/modelling-interhuman-transmission-dynamics-of-chagas-disease-analysis-and-application/31B84D8DEDC8046D86A41A289B7E69CF
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Cambridge University Press
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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