Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission

Autores
Wanelik, Klara M.; Begon, Mike; Fenton, Andy; Norman, Rachel A.; Beldomenico, Pablo Martín
Año de publicación
2023
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to become superspreaders themselves. Here, we begin to explore, theoretically, the effects of such a positive feedback loop on (1) the final epidemic size, (2) the herd immunity threshold, (3) the basic reproduction number, R0, and (4) the peak prevalence of superspreaders, using a generic model (for a hypothetical acute viral infection) and illustrative parameter values. We show that positive feedback loops can have a profound effect on our chosen epidemic outcomes, even when the transmission advantage of superspreaders is moderate, and despite peak prevalence of superspreaders remaining low. We argue that positive superspreader feedback loops in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should be investigated further, both theoretically and empirically.
Fil: Wanelik, Klara M.. University of Liverpool; Reino Unido
Fil: Begon, Mike. University of Liverpool; Reino Unido
Fil: Fenton, Andy. University of Liverpool; Reino Unido
Fil: Norman, Rachel A.. University of Stirling; Reino Unido
Fil: Beldomenico, Pablo Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - CONICET - Santa Fe. Instituto de Ciencias Veterinarias del Litoral; Argentina. Laboratorio de Ecología de Enfermedades; Argentina
Materia
HEALTH SCIENCES
MEDICINE
VIROLOGY
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/225940
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmissionWanelik, Klara M.Begon, MikeFenton, AndyNorman, Rachel A.Beldomenico, Pablo MartínHEALTH SCIENCESMEDICINEVIROLOGYhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/4.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to become superspreaders themselves. Here, we begin to explore, theoretically, the effects of such a positive feedback loop on (1) the final epidemic size, (2) the herd immunity threshold, (3) the basic reproduction number, R0, and (4) the peak prevalence of superspreaders, using a generic model (for a hypothetical acute viral infection) and illustrative parameter values. We show that positive feedback loops can have a profound effect on our chosen epidemic outcomes, even when the transmission advantage of superspreaders is moderate, and despite peak prevalence of superspreaders remaining low. We argue that positive superspreader feedback loops in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should be investigated further, both theoretically and empirically.Fil: Wanelik, Klara M.. University of Liverpool; Reino UnidoFil: Begon, Mike. University of Liverpool; Reino UnidoFil: Fenton, Andy. University of Liverpool; Reino UnidoFil: Norman, Rachel A.. University of Stirling; Reino UnidoFil: Beldomenico, Pablo Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - CONICET - Santa Fe. Instituto de Ciencias Veterinarias del Litoral; Argentina. Laboratorio de Ecología de Enfermedades; ArgentinaElsevier2023-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/225940Wanelik, Klara M.; Begon, Mike; Fenton, Andy; Norman, Rachel A.; Beldomenico, Pablo Martín; Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission; Elsevier; iScience; 26; 5; 5-2023; 1-132589-0042CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004223006958info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106618info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2026-06-10T10:10:46Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/225940instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982026-06-10 10:10:46.645CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission
title Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission
spellingShingle Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission
Wanelik, Klara M.
HEALTH SCIENCES
MEDICINE
VIROLOGY
title_short Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission
title_full Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission
title_fullStr Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission
title_full_unstemmed Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission
title_sort Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Wanelik, Klara M.
Begon, Mike
Fenton, Andy
Norman, Rachel A.
Beldomenico, Pablo Martín
author Wanelik, Klara M.
author_facet Wanelik, Klara M.
Begon, Mike
Fenton, Andy
Norman, Rachel A.
Beldomenico, Pablo Martín
author_role author
author2 Begon, Mike
Fenton, Andy
Norman, Rachel A.
Beldomenico, Pablo Martín
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv HEALTH SCIENCES
MEDICINE
VIROLOGY
topic HEALTH SCIENCES
MEDICINE
VIROLOGY
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to become superspreaders themselves. Here, we begin to explore, theoretically, the effects of such a positive feedback loop on (1) the final epidemic size, (2) the herd immunity threshold, (3) the basic reproduction number, R0, and (4) the peak prevalence of superspreaders, using a generic model (for a hypothetical acute viral infection) and illustrative parameter values. We show that positive feedback loops can have a profound effect on our chosen epidemic outcomes, even when the transmission advantage of superspreaders is moderate, and despite peak prevalence of superspreaders remaining low. We argue that positive superspreader feedback loops in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should be investigated further, both theoretically and empirically.
Fil: Wanelik, Klara M.. University of Liverpool; Reino Unido
Fil: Begon, Mike. University of Liverpool; Reino Unido
Fil: Fenton, Andy. University of Liverpool; Reino Unido
Fil: Norman, Rachel A.. University of Stirling; Reino Unido
Fil: Beldomenico, Pablo Martín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico - CONICET - Santa Fe. Instituto de Ciencias Veterinarias del Litoral; Argentina. Laboratorio de Ecología de Enfermedades; Argentina
description Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to become superspreaders themselves. Here, we begin to explore, theoretically, the effects of such a positive feedback loop on (1) the final epidemic size, (2) the herd immunity threshold, (3) the basic reproduction number, R0, and (4) the peak prevalence of superspreaders, using a generic model (for a hypothetical acute viral infection) and illustrative parameter values. We show that positive feedback loops can have a profound effect on our chosen epidemic outcomes, even when the transmission advantage of superspreaders is moderate, and despite peak prevalence of superspreaders remaining low. We argue that positive superspreader feedback loops in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should be investigated further, both theoretically and empirically.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/225940
Wanelik, Klara M.; Begon, Mike; Fenton, Andy; Norman, Rachel A.; Beldomenico, Pablo Martín; Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission; Elsevier; iScience; 26; 5; 5-2023; 1-13
2589-0042
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/225940
identifier_str_mv Wanelik, Klara M.; Begon, Mike; Fenton, Andy; Norman, Rachel A.; Beldomenico, Pablo Martín; Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission; Elsevier; iScience; 26; 5; 5-2023; 1-13
2589-0042
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004223006958
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106618
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1867630096186081280
score 12.98848

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