Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments

Autores
Cavallo, Alberto; Cruces, Guillermo Antonio; Perez Truglia, Ricardo
Año de publicación
2017
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in low inflation contexts have significantly weaker priors about the inflation rate. This finding suggests that rational inattention may be an important source of information frictions. Second, cognitive limitations also appear to be a source of information frictions: Even when information about inflation statistics is available, individuals still place a significant weight on inaccurate sources of information, such as their memories of the price changes of the supermarket products they purchase. We discuss the implications of these findings for macroeconomic models and policymaking.
Fil: Cavallo, Alberto. Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cruces, Guillermo Antonio. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; Argentina
Fil: Perez Truglia, Ricardo. University of California; Estados Unidos
Materia
Expectations
Speculations
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/85108
Acceder
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spelling Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experimentsCavallo, AlbertoCruces, Guillermo AntonioPerez Truglia, RicardoExpectationsSpeculationshttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.2https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in low inflation contexts have significantly weaker priors about the inflation rate. This finding suggests that rational inattention may be an important source of information frictions. Second, cognitive limitations also appear to be a source of information frictions: Even when information about inflation statistics is available, individuals still place a significant weight on inaccurate sources of information, such as their memories of the price changes of the supermarket products they purchase. We discuss the implications of these findings for macroeconomic models and policymaking.Fil: Cavallo, Alberto. Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Estados UnidosFil: Cruces, Guillermo Antonio. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Perez Truglia, Ricardo. University of California; Estados UnidosAmerican Economic Association2017-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/85108Cavallo, Alberto; Cruces, Guillermo Antonio; Perez Truglia, Ricardo; Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments; American Economic Association; American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics; 9; 3; 7-2017; 1-351945-77071945-7715CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20150147info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1257/mac.20150147info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:54:17Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/85108instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:54:17.395CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments
title Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments
spellingShingle Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments
Cavallo, Alberto
Expectations
Speculations
title_short Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments
title_full Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments
title_fullStr Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments
title_full_unstemmed Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments
title_sort Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Cavallo, Alberto
Cruces, Guillermo Antonio
Perez Truglia, Ricardo
author Cavallo, Alberto
author_facet Cavallo, Alberto
Cruces, Guillermo Antonio
Perez Truglia, Ricardo
author_role author
author2 Cruces, Guillermo Antonio
Perez Truglia, Ricardo
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Expectations
Speculations
topic Expectations
Speculations
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.2
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in low inflation contexts have significantly weaker priors about the inflation rate. This finding suggests that rational inattention may be an important source of information frictions. Second, cognitive limitations also appear to be a source of information frictions: Even when information about inflation statistics is available, individuals still place a significant weight on inaccurate sources of information, such as their memories of the price changes of the supermarket products they purchase. We discuss the implications of these findings for macroeconomic models and policymaking.
Fil: Cavallo, Alberto. Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cruces, Guillermo Antonio. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata; Argentina
Fil: Perez Truglia, Ricardo. University of California; Estados Unidos
description Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in low inflation contexts have significantly weaker priors about the inflation rate. This finding suggests that rational inattention may be an important source of information frictions. Second, cognitive limitations also appear to be a source of information frictions: Even when information about inflation statistics is available, individuals still place a significant weight on inaccurate sources of information, such as their memories of the price changes of the supermarket products they purchase. We discuss the implications of these findings for macroeconomic models and policymaking.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-07
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/85108
Cavallo, Alberto; Cruces, Guillermo Antonio; Perez Truglia, Ricardo; Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments; American Economic Association; American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics; 9; 3; 7-2017; 1-35
1945-7707
1945-7715
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/85108
identifier_str_mv Cavallo, Alberto; Cruces, Guillermo Antonio; Perez Truglia, Ricardo; Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments; American Economic Association; American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics; 9; 3; 7-2017; 1-35
1945-7707
1945-7715
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20150147
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1257/mac.20150147
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Economic Association
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Economic Association
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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