The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation
- Autores
- Toreti, Andrea; Belward, Alan; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Naumann, Gustavo; Luterbacher, Jürg; Cronie, Ottmar; Seguini, Lorenzo; Manfron, Giacinto; Lopez Lozano, Raul; Baruth, Bettina; van den Berg, Maurits; Dentener, Frank; Ceglar, Andrej; Chatzopoulos, Thomas; Zampieri, Matteo
- Año de publicación
- 2019
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5-year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy-based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018-like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high-end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro-economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.
Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Belward, Alan. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Perez Dominguez, Ignacio. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Luterbacher, Jürg. Justus Liebig Universitat Giessen; Alemania
Fil: Cronie, Ottmar. Universidad de Umea; Suecia
Fil: Seguini, Lorenzo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Manfron, Giacinto. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Lopez Lozano, Raul. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Baruth, Bettina. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: van den Berg, Maurits. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Dentener, Frank. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Chatzopoulos, Thomas. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; Italia - Materia
-
AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
DROUGHT
EUROPE
WATER SEESAW - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/149794
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on AdaptationToreti, AndreaBelward, AlanPerez Dominguez, IgnacioNaumann, GustavoLuterbacher, JürgCronie, OttmarSeguini, LorenzoManfron, GiacintoLopez Lozano, RaulBaruth, Bettinavan den Berg, MauritsDentener, FrankCeglar, AndrejChatzopoulos, ThomasZampieri, MatteoAGRICULTURECLIMATE EXTREMESCLIMATE PROJECTIONSDROUGHTEUROPEWATER SEESAWhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5-year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy-based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018-like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high-end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro-economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Belward, Alan. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Perez Dominguez, Ignacio. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Luterbacher, Jürg. Justus Liebig Universitat Giessen; AlemaniaFil: Cronie, Ottmar. Universidad de Umea; SueciaFil: Seguini, Lorenzo. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Manfron, Giacinto. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Lopez Lozano, Raul. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Baruth, Bettina. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: van den Berg, Maurits. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Dentener, Frank. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Chatzopoulos, Thomas. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaJohn Wiley & Sons Inc2019-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/149794Toreti, Andrea; Belward, Alan; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Naumann, Gustavo; Luterbacher, Jürg; et al.; The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation; John Wiley & Sons Inc; Earth's Future; 7; 6; 5-2019; 652-6632328-4277CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001170info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019EF001170info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:31:04Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/149794instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:31:04.694CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation |
title |
The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation |
spellingShingle |
The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation Toreti, Andrea AGRICULTURE CLIMATE EXTREMES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS DROUGHT EUROPE WATER SEESAW |
title_short |
The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation |
title_full |
The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation |
title_fullStr |
The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation |
title_sort |
The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Toreti, Andrea Belward, Alan Perez Dominguez, Ignacio Naumann, Gustavo Luterbacher, Jürg Cronie, Ottmar Seguini, Lorenzo Manfron, Giacinto Lopez Lozano, Raul Baruth, Bettina van den Berg, Maurits Dentener, Frank Ceglar, Andrej Chatzopoulos, Thomas Zampieri, Matteo |
author |
Toreti, Andrea |
author_facet |
Toreti, Andrea Belward, Alan Perez Dominguez, Ignacio Naumann, Gustavo Luterbacher, Jürg Cronie, Ottmar Seguini, Lorenzo Manfron, Giacinto Lopez Lozano, Raul Baruth, Bettina van den Berg, Maurits Dentener, Frank Ceglar, Andrej Chatzopoulos, Thomas Zampieri, Matteo |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Belward, Alan Perez Dominguez, Ignacio Naumann, Gustavo Luterbacher, Jürg Cronie, Ottmar Seguini, Lorenzo Manfron, Giacinto Lopez Lozano, Raul Baruth, Bettina van den Berg, Maurits Dentener, Frank Ceglar, Andrej Chatzopoulos, Thomas Zampieri, Matteo |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
AGRICULTURE CLIMATE EXTREMES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS DROUGHT EUROPE WATER SEESAW |
topic |
AGRICULTURE CLIMATE EXTREMES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS DROUGHT EUROPE WATER SEESAW |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5-year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy-based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018-like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high-end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro-economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw. Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Belward, Alan. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Perez Dominguez, Ignacio. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Luterbacher, Jürg. Justus Liebig Universitat Giessen; Alemania Fil: Cronie, Ottmar. Universidad de Umea; Suecia Fil: Seguini, Lorenzo. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Manfron, Giacinto. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Lopez Lozano, Raul. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Baruth, Bettina. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: van den Berg, Maurits. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Dentener, Frank. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Chatzopoulos, Thomas. Joint Research Centre; Italia Fil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; Italia |
description |
Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5-year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy-based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018-like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high-end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro-economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-05 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/149794 Toreti, Andrea; Belward, Alan; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Naumann, Gustavo; Luterbacher, Jürg; et al.; The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation; John Wiley & Sons Inc; Earth's Future; 7; 6; 5-2019; 652-663 2328-4277 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/149794 |
identifier_str_mv |
Toreti, Andrea; Belward, Alan; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Naumann, Gustavo; Luterbacher, Jürg; et al.; The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation; John Wiley & Sons Inc; Earth's Future; 7; 6; 5-2019; 652-663 2328-4277 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001170 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019EF001170 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons Inc |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons Inc |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1844614319887613952 |
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13.070432 |