The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation

Autores
Toreti, Andrea; Belward, Alan; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Naumann, Gustavo; Luterbacher, Jürg; Cronie, Ottmar; Seguini, Lorenzo; Manfron, Giacinto; Lopez Lozano, Raul; Baruth, Bettina; van den Berg, Maurits; Dentener, Frank; Ceglar, Andrej; Chatzopoulos, Thomas; Zampieri, Matteo
Año de publicación
2019
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5-year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy-based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018-like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high-end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro-economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.
Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Belward, Alan. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Perez Dominguez, Ignacio. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Luterbacher, Jürg. Justus Liebig Universitat Giessen; Alemania
Fil: Cronie, Ottmar. Universidad de Umea; Suecia
Fil: Seguini, Lorenzo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Manfron, Giacinto. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Lopez Lozano, Raul. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Baruth, Bettina. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: van den Berg, Maurits. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Dentener, Frank. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Chatzopoulos, Thomas. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Materia
AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
DROUGHT
EUROPE
WATER SEESAW
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/149794
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/149794
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on AdaptationToreti, AndreaBelward, AlanPerez Dominguez, IgnacioNaumann, GustavoLuterbacher, JürgCronie, OttmarSeguini, LorenzoManfron, GiacintoLopez Lozano, RaulBaruth, Bettinavan den Berg, MauritsDentener, FrankCeglar, AndrejChatzopoulos, ThomasZampieri, MatteoAGRICULTURECLIMATE EXTREMESCLIMATE PROJECTIONSDROUGHTEUROPEWATER SEESAWhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5-year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy-based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018-like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high-end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro-economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Belward, Alan. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Perez Dominguez, Ignacio. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Luterbacher, Jürg. Justus Liebig Universitat Giessen; AlemaniaFil: Cronie, Ottmar. Universidad de Umea; SueciaFil: Seguini, Lorenzo. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Manfron, Giacinto. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Lopez Lozano, Raul. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Baruth, Bettina. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: van den Berg, Maurits. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Dentener, Frank. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Chatzopoulos, Thomas. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaJohn Wiley & Sons Inc2019-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/149794Toreti, Andrea; Belward, Alan; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Naumann, Gustavo; Luterbacher, Jürg; et al.; The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation; John Wiley & Sons Inc; Earth's Future; 7; 6; 5-2019; 652-6632328-4277CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001170info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019EF001170info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T15:28:20Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/149794instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 15:28:21.244CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation
title The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation
spellingShingle The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation
Toreti, Andrea
AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
DROUGHT
EUROPE
WATER SEESAW
title_short The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation
title_full The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation
title_fullStr The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation
title_full_unstemmed The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation
title_sort The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Toreti, Andrea
Belward, Alan
Perez Dominguez, Ignacio
Naumann, Gustavo
Luterbacher, Jürg
Cronie, Ottmar
Seguini, Lorenzo
Manfron, Giacinto
Lopez Lozano, Raul
Baruth, Bettina
van den Berg, Maurits
Dentener, Frank
Ceglar, Andrej
Chatzopoulos, Thomas
Zampieri, Matteo
author Toreti, Andrea
author_facet Toreti, Andrea
Belward, Alan
Perez Dominguez, Ignacio
Naumann, Gustavo
Luterbacher, Jürg
Cronie, Ottmar
Seguini, Lorenzo
Manfron, Giacinto
Lopez Lozano, Raul
Baruth, Bettina
van den Berg, Maurits
Dentener, Frank
Ceglar, Andrej
Chatzopoulos, Thomas
Zampieri, Matteo
author_role author
author2 Belward, Alan
Perez Dominguez, Ignacio
Naumann, Gustavo
Luterbacher, Jürg
Cronie, Ottmar
Seguini, Lorenzo
Manfron, Giacinto
Lopez Lozano, Raul
Baruth, Bettina
van den Berg, Maurits
Dentener, Frank
Ceglar, Andrej
Chatzopoulos, Thomas
Zampieri, Matteo
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
DROUGHT
EUROPE
WATER SEESAW
topic AGRICULTURE
CLIMATE EXTREMES
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
DROUGHT
EUROPE
WATER SEESAW
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5-year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy-based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018-like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high-end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro-economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.
Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Belward, Alan. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Perez Dominguez, Ignacio. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Luterbacher, Jürg. Justus Liebig Universitat Giessen; Alemania
Fil: Cronie, Ottmar. Universidad de Umea; Suecia
Fil: Seguini, Lorenzo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Manfron, Giacinto. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Lopez Lozano, Raul. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Baruth, Bettina. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: van den Berg, Maurits. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Dentener, Frank. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Chatzopoulos, Thomas. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
description Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5-year mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy-based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only 4 years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018-like temperature and rainfall conditions, favorable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high-end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. While integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro-economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/149794
Toreti, Andrea; Belward, Alan; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Naumann, Gustavo; Luterbacher, Jürg; et al.; The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation; John Wiley & Sons Inc; Earth's Future; 7; 6; 5-2019; 652-663
2328-4277
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/149794
identifier_str_mv Toreti, Andrea; Belward, Alan; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Naumann, Gustavo; Luterbacher, Jürg; et al.; The Exceptional 2018 European Water Seesaw Calls for Action on Adaptation; John Wiley & Sons Inc; Earth's Future; 7; 6; 5-2019; 652-663
2328-4277
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001170
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019EF001170
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Inc
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Inc
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.22299

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