Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East

Autores
Zampieri, Matteo; Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Naumann, Gustavo; Turco, Marco; Tebaldi, Claudia
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Wheat is the main staple crop and an important commodity in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. These are among the few areas in the world where the climate is suitable for growing durum wheat but also are among the most rapidly warming ones, according to the available scenarios of climate projections. How much food security and market stability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, both depending on wheat production and its interannual variability, are going to be compromised by global warming is an overarching question. To contribute in addressing it, we use a recently established indicator to quantify crop production climate resilience. We present a methodological framework allowing to compute the annual production resilience indicator from nonstationary time series. We apply this approach on the wheat production of the 10 most important producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Our findings shows that if no adaptation will take place, wheat production reliability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East will be threatened by climate change already at 1.5 °C global warming. Average climaterelated wheat production losses will exceed the worst past event even if the 2 °C mitigation target is met. These results call for urgent action on adaptation to climate change and support further efforts for mitigation, fully consistently with the Paris Agreement recommendations.
Fil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Turco, Marco. Universidad de Murcia; España
Fil: Tebaldi, Claudia. Joint Global Change Research Institute; Italia
Materia
CLIMATE
RESILIENCE
WHEAT
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/149568
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle EastZampieri, MatteoToreti, AndreaCeglar, AndrejNaumann, GustavoTurco, MarcoTebaldi, ClaudiaCLIMATERESILIENCEWHEAThttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Wheat is the main staple crop and an important commodity in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. These are among the few areas in the world where the climate is suitable for growing durum wheat but also are among the most rapidly warming ones, according to the available scenarios of climate projections. How much food security and market stability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, both depending on wheat production and its interannual variability, are going to be compromised by global warming is an overarching question. To contribute in addressing it, we use a recently established indicator to quantify crop production climate resilience. We present a methodological framework allowing to compute the annual production resilience indicator from nonstationary time series. We apply this approach on the wheat production of the 10 most important producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Our findings shows that if no adaptation will take place, wheat production reliability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East will be threatened by climate change already at 1.5 °C global warming. Average climaterelated wheat production losses will exceed the worst past event even if the 2 °C mitigation target is met. These results call for urgent action on adaptation to climate change and support further efforts for mitigation, fully consistently with the Paris Agreement recommendations.Fil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; ItaliaFil: Naumann, Gustavo. Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Turco, Marco. Universidad de Murcia; EspañaFil: Tebaldi, Claudia. Joint Global Change Research Institute; ItaliaSpringer Heidelberg2020-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/149568Zampieri, Matteo; Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Naumann, Gustavo; Turco, Marco; et al.; Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East; Springer Heidelberg; Regional Environmental Change; 20; 2; 3-2020; 1-91436-3798CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-020-01622-9info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10113-020-01622-9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:10:08Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/149568instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:10:08.998CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East
title Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East
spellingShingle Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East
Zampieri, Matteo
CLIMATE
RESILIENCE
WHEAT
title_short Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East
title_full Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East
title_fullStr Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East
title_full_unstemmed Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East
title_sort Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Zampieri, Matteo
Toreti, Andrea
Ceglar, Andrej
Naumann, Gustavo
Turco, Marco
Tebaldi, Claudia
author Zampieri, Matteo
author_facet Zampieri, Matteo
Toreti, Andrea
Ceglar, Andrej
Naumann, Gustavo
Turco, Marco
Tebaldi, Claudia
author_role author
author2 Toreti, Andrea
Ceglar, Andrej
Naumann, Gustavo
Turco, Marco
Tebaldi, Claudia
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE
RESILIENCE
WHEAT
topic CLIMATE
RESILIENCE
WHEAT
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Wheat is the main staple crop and an important commodity in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. These are among the few areas in the world where the climate is suitable for growing durum wheat but also are among the most rapidly warming ones, according to the available scenarios of climate projections. How much food security and market stability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, both depending on wheat production and its interannual variability, are going to be compromised by global warming is an overarching question. To contribute in addressing it, we use a recently established indicator to quantify crop production climate resilience. We present a methodological framework allowing to compute the annual production resilience indicator from nonstationary time series. We apply this approach on the wheat production of the 10 most important producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Our findings shows that if no adaptation will take place, wheat production reliability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East will be threatened by climate change already at 1.5 °C global warming. Average climaterelated wheat production losses will exceed the worst past event even if the 2 °C mitigation target is met. These results call for urgent action on adaptation to climate change and support further efforts for mitigation, fully consistently with the Paris Agreement recommendations.
Fil: Zampieri, Matteo. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Toreti, Andrea. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Ceglar, Andrej. Joint Research Centre; Italia
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Joint Research Centre; Italia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Turco, Marco. Universidad de Murcia; España
Fil: Tebaldi, Claudia. Joint Global Change Research Institute; Italia
description Wheat is the main staple crop and an important commodity in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. These are among the few areas in the world where the climate is suitable for growing durum wheat but also are among the most rapidly warming ones, according to the available scenarios of climate projections. How much food security and market stability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East, both depending on wheat production and its interannual variability, are going to be compromised by global warming is an overarching question. To contribute in addressing it, we use a recently established indicator to quantify crop production climate resilience. We present a methodological framework allowing to compute the annual production resilience indicator from nonstationary time series. We apply this approach on the wheat production of the 10 most important producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Our findings shows that if no adaptation will take place, wheat production reliability in the Mediterranean and the Middle East will be threatened by climate change already at 1.5 °C global warming. Average climaterelated wheat production losses will exceed the worst past event even if the 2 °C mitigation target is met. These results call for urgent action on adaptation to climate change and support further efforts for mitigation, fully consistently with the Paris Agreement recommendations.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/149568
Zampieri, Matteo; Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Naumann, Gustavo; Turco, Marco; et al.; Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East; Springer Heidelberg; Regional Environmental Change; 20; 2; 3-2020; 1-9
1436-3798
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/149568
identifier_str_mv Zampieri, Matteo; Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Naumann, Gustavo; Turco, Marco; et al.; Climate resilience of the top ten wheat producers in the Mediterranean and the Middle East; Springer Heidelberg; Regional Environmental Change; 20; 2; 3-2020; 1-9
1436-3798
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-020-01622-9
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10113-020-01622-9
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Heidelberg
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Heidelberg
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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