A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)

Autores
Fernández, María Laura; Otero, Marcelo Javier; Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin; Solari, Hernan Gustavo
Año de publicación
2013
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
We discuss the historic mortality record corresponding to the initial focus of the yellow fever epidemic outbreak registered in Buenos Aires during the year 1871 as compared to simulations of a stochastic population dynamics model. This model incorporates the biology of the urban vector of yellow fever, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the stages of the disease in the human being as well as the spatial extension of the epidemic utbreak.
After introducing the historical context and the restrictions it puts on  initial conditions and ecological parameters, we discuss the general features of the simulation and the dependence on initial conditions and available sites for breeding the vector. We discuss the sensitivity, to the free parameters, of statistical estimators such as: nal death toll, day of the year when the outbreak reached half the total mortality and the normalized daily mortality, showing some striking regularities. The model is precise and accurate enough to discuss the truthfulness of the  resently accepted historic discussions of the epidemic causes, showing that there are more likely scenarios for the historic facts.
Fil: Fernández, María Laura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Computación; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina
Fil: Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina
Materia
Yellow Fever
Outbreak
Simulation
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/2293
Acceder
id CONICETDig_ac9e58e297c64a716ea3bb3a22660484
oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/2293
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)Fernández, María LauraOtero, Marcelo JavierSchweigmann, Nicolas JoaquinSolari, Hernan GustavoYellow FeverOutbreakSimulationhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1We discuss the historic mortality record corresponding to the initial focus of the yellow fever epidemic outbreak registered in Buenos Aires during the year 1871 as compared to simulations of a stochastic population dynamics model. This model incorporates the biology of the urban vector of yellow fever, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the stages of the disease in the human being as well as the spatial extension of the epidemic utbreak.<br />After introducing the historical context and the restrictions it puts on  initial conditions and ecological parameters, we discuss the general features of the simulation and the dependence on initial conditions and available sites for breeding the vector. We discuss the sensitivity, to the free parameters, of statistical estimators such as: nal death toll, day of the year when the outbreak reached half the total mortality and the normalized daily mortality, showing some striking regularities. The model is precise and accurate enough to discuss the truthfulness of the  resently accepted historic discussions of the epidemic causes, showing that there are more likely scenarios for the historic facts.Fil: Fernández, María Laura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Computación; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; ArgentinaFil: Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; ArgentinaInstituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos2013-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/2293Fernández, María Laura; Otero, Marcelo Javier; Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin; Solari, Hernan Gustavo; A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871); Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; Papers in physics; 5; 3-2013; 050002-0500021852-4249enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.papersinphysics.org/index.php/papersinphysics/article/view/120info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.03445info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4279/PIP.050002info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:06:26Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/2293instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:06:26.95CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)
title A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)
spellingShingle A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)
Fernández, María Laura
Yellow Fever
Outbreak
Simulation
title_short A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)
title_full A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)
title_fullStr A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)
title_full_unstemmed A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)
title_sort A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Fernández, María Laura
Otero, Marcelo Javier
Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin
Solari, Hernan Gustavo
author Fernández, María Laura
author_facet Fernández, María Laura
Otero, Marcelo Javier
Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin
Solari, Hernan Gustavo
author_role author
author2 Otero, Marcelo Javier
Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin
Solari, Hernan Gustavo
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Yellow Fever
Outbreak
Simulation
topic Yellow Fever
Outbreak
Simulation
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv We discuss the historic mortality record corresponding to the initial focus of the yellow fever epidemic outbreak registered in Buenos Aires during the year 1871 as compared to simulations of a stochastic population dynamics model. This model incorporates the biology of the urban vector of yellow fever, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the stages of the disease in the human being as well as the spatial extension of the epidemic utbreak.<br />After introducing the historical context and the restrictions it puts on  initial conditions and ecological parameters, we discuss the general features of the simulation and the dependence on initial conditions and available sites for breeding the vector. We discuss the sensitivity, to the free parameters, of statistical estimators such as: nal death toll, day of the year when the outbreak reached half the total mortality and the normalized daily mortality, showing some striking regularities. The model is precise and accurate enough to discuss the truthfulness of the  resently accepted historic discussions of the epidemic causes, showing that there are more likely scenarios for the historic facts.
Fil: Fernández, María Laura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Computación; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina
Fil: Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ecología, Genética y Evolución; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentina
Fil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Física; Argentina
description We discuss the historic mortality record corresponding to the initial focus of the yellow fever epidemic outbreak registered in Buenos Aires during the year 1871 as compared to simulations of a stochastic population dynamics model. This model incorporates the biology of the urban vector of yellow fever, the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the stages of the disease in the human being as well as the spatial extension of the epidemic utbreak.<br />After introducing the historical context and the restrictions it puts on  initial conditions and ecological parameters, we discuss the general features of the simulation and the dependence on initial conditions and available sites for breeding the vector. We discuss the sensitivity, to the free parameters, of statistical estimators such as: nal death toll, day of the year when the outbreak reached half the total mortality and the normalized daily mortality, showing some striking regularities. The model is precise and accurate enough to discuss the truthfulness of the  resently accepted historic discussions of the epidemic causes, showing that there are more likely scenarios for the historic facts.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/2293
Fernández, María Laura; Otero, Marcelo Javier; Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin; Solari, Hernan Gustavo; A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871); Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; Papers in physics; 5; 3-2013; 050002-050002
1852-4249
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/2293
identifier_str_mv Fernández, María Laura; Otero, Marcelo Javier; Schweigmann, Nicolas Joaquin; Solari, Hernan Gustavo; A mathematically assisted reconstruction of the initial focus of the yellow fever outbreak in Buenos Aires (1871); Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos; Papers in physics; 5; 3-2013; 050002-050002
1852-4249
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.papersinphysics.org/index.php/papersinphysics/article/view/120
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.03445
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4279/PIP.050002
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Instituto de Física de Líquidos y Sistemas Biológicos
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1842269958956908544
score 13.13397

Publicaciones similares