A comparison of some simple methods used to detect unstable temperature responses in tree-ring chronologies

• Autores: Allen, K. J.; Villalba, Ricardo; Lavergne, A.; Palmer, J. G.; Cook, E. C.; Fenwick, P.; Drew, D. M.; Turney, C. S. M.; Baker, P. J.
• Año de publicación: 2018
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: DENDROCHRONOLOGY; DENDROCLIMATOLOGY; DIVERGENCE; RECONSTRUCTION; TEMPORALLY UNSTABLE RELATIONSHIPS
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Temporal stability of the relationship between a potential proxy climate record and the climate record itself is the foundation of palaeoproxy reconstructions of past climate variability. Dendroclimatologists have spent considerable effort exploring the issue of temporal instability of temperature records at high-latitude and −altitude Northern Hemisphere sites. Much of this work has focused on the Divergence Problem in which the modern ends of tree-ring chronologies exhibit pronounced departures from the climate-proxy relationships of preceding decades. However, there has been little scrutiny of how different methods might influence determinations of temporal instability at either the local scale or across broader spatial domains. Here we use four sets of Southern Hemisphere (SH) chronologies and three sets of synthetic data with known interventions to compare four methodologies that have been widely used to assess the temporal stability of relationships between tree-ring series and climate. Our analyses demonstrate that a determination of temporal instability may be partially dependent on method used to examine data, that some methods are more sensitive to standardisation choice than others, and that all methods are better at detecting high- rather than low-frequency instability. In all cases, the relatively modest strength of the relationships between the selected SH ring-width chronologies and temperature is likely to be an issue, especially if changes in trends are of interest. We recommend that robust assessment of temporal instability between tree-ring chronologies and observational climate data should use a range of methods and that unstable temporal relationships across space be carefully considered in the context of large climate field reconstructions.
Fil: Allen, K. J.. University of Melbourne; Australia
Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Lavergne, A.. Imperial College London; Reino Unido
Fil: Palmer, J. G.. University of New South Wales; Australia
Fil: Cook, E. C.. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; Estados Unidos
Fil: Fenwick, P.. Gondwana Tree-Ring Laboratory; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Drew, D. M.. Stellenbosch University; Sudáfrica
Fil: Turney, C. S. M.. University of New South Wales; Australia
Fil: Baker, P. J.. University of Melbourne; Australia