Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure

Autores
Norte, Federico Augusto; Simonelli, Silvia Carmen
Año de publicación
2016
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Zonda is a strong, warm, very dry wind associated with adiabatic compression upon descending the eastern slopes of the Andes Cordillera in western-central Argentina. This research seeks, first, to validate the skill of a statistical forecast of zonda based on the behavior of the vertical structure of the atmosphere and, second, to describe the climatology of the vertical profile leeward of the Andes. The forecast was built for May-August 1974/1983, and was verified against a series of cases recorded in the Mendoza Aero and San Juan Aero weather stations for May-August 2005/2014.It made use of the Stepwise Discriminant Analysis (SDA) and rawinsonde data from Mendoza Aero as predictors, with the following input variables: surface pressure, temperature, dew point, and the zonal and meridional components of the wind on surface and of the fixed levels up to 200 hPa.The variables selected as predictors by the SDA were: surface pressure, dew point depression at 850 hPa, meridional wind component at 850 hPa, and zonal wind component at 400 hPa. Climatology of the vertical profile of the atmosphere leeward of the Andes was built from daily rawinsonde data from Mendoza Aero for May-August 1974/1983. Zonda markedly influences the atmospheric structure leeward of the Andes in western-central Argentina. Its maximum impact occurs at850 to 800 hPa, with significant heating and decrease of humidity. Validation of the prediction program considered deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. Contingency tables show that probability of zonda occurrence in the plains is generally overestimated, and false alarm cases are far more frequent than surprise events. The main contribution of this paper is precisely the validation of the prediction model, which ensures forecasters one more tool to improve zonda forecasting; this, in turn, will aid decision-makers when taking steps to ameliorate zonda wind impact.
Fil: Norte, Federico Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Simonelli, Silvia Carmen. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Materia
ZONDA
ARGENTINA
STATISTICAL
FORECAST
VALIDATION
RAWINSONDE
CLIMATOLOGY
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/73230
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/73230
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric StructureNorte, Federico AugustoSimonelli, Silvia CarmenZONDAARGENTINASTATISTICALFORECASTVALIDATIONRAWINSONDECLIMATOLOGYhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Zonda is a strong, warm, very dry wind associated with adiabatic compression upon descending the eastern slopes of the Andes Cordillera in western-central Argentina. This research seeks, first, to validate the skill of a statistical forecast of zonda based on the behavior of the vertical structure of the atmosphere and, second, to describe the climatology of the vertical profile leeward of the Andes. The forecast was built for May-August 1974/1983, and was verified against a series of cases recorded in the Mendoza Aero and San Juan Aero weather stations for May-August 2005/2014.It made use of the Stepwise Discriminant Analysis (SDA) and rawinsonde data from Mendoza Aero as predictors, with the following input variables: surface pressure, temperature, dew point, and the zonal and meridional components of the wind on surface and of the fixed levels up to 200 hPa.The variables selected as predictors by the SDA were: surface pressure, dew point depression at 850 hPa, meridional wind component at 850 hPa, and zonal wind component at 400 hPa. Climatology of the vertical profile of the atmosphere leeward of the Andes was built from daily rawinsonde data from Mendoza Aero for May-August 1974/1983. Zonda markedly influences the atmospheric structure leeward of the Andes in western-central Argentina. Its maximum impact occurs at850 to 800 hPa, with significant heating and decrease of humidity. Validation of the prediction program considered deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. Contingency tables show that probability of zonda occurrence in the plains is generally overestimated, and false alarm cases are far more frequent than surprise events. The main contribution of this paper is precisely the validation of the prediction model, which ensures forecasters one more tool to improve zonda forecasting; this, in turn, will aid decision-makers when taking steps to ameliorate zonda wind impact.Fil: Norte, Federico Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Simonelli, Silvia Carmen. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaScientific Research2016-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/73230Norte, Federico Augusto; Simonelli, Silvia Carmen; Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure; Scientific Research; Atmospheric and Climate Science; 6; 1-2016; 35-502160-04142160-0422CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4236/acs.2016.61004info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=62658info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:30:14Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/73230instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:30:14.879CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure
title Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure
spellingShingle Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure
Norte, Federico Augusto
ZONDA
ARGENTINA
STATISTICAL
FORECAST
VALIDATION
RAWINSONDE
CLIMATOLOGY
title_short Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure
title_full Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure
title_fullStr Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure
title_full_unstemmed Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure
title_sort Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Norte, Federico Augusto
Simonelli, Silvia Carmen
author Norte, Federico Augusto
author_facet Norte, Federico Augusto
Simonelli, Silvia Carmen
author_role author
author2 Simonelli, Silvia Carmen
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv ZONDA
ARGENTINA
STATISTICAL
FORECAST
VALIDATION
RAWINSONDE
CLIMATOLOGY
topic ZONDA
ARGENTINA
STATISTICAL
FORECAST
VALIDATION
RAWINSONDE
CLIMATOLOGY
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Zonda is a strong, warm, very dry wind associated with adiabatic compression upon descending the eastern slopes of the Andes Cordillera in western-central Argentina. This research seeks, first, to validate the skill of a statistical forecast of zonda based on the behavior of the vertical structure of the atmosphere and, second, to describe the climatology of the vertical profile leeward of the Andes. The forecast was built for May-August 1974/1983, and was verified against a series of cases recorded in the Mendoza Aero and San Juan Aero weather stations for May-August 2005/2014.It made use of the Stepwise Discriminant Analysis (SDA) and rawinsonde data from Mendoza Aero as predictors, with the following input variables: surface pressure, temperature, dew point, and the zonal and meridional components of the wind on surface and of the fixed levels up to 200 hPa.The variables selected as predictors by the SDA were: surface pressure, dew point depression at 850 hPa, meridional wind component at 850 hPa, and zonal wind component at 400 hPa. Climatology of the vertical profile of the atmosphere leeward of the Andes was built from daily rawinsonde data from Mendoza Aero for May-August 1974/1983. Zonda markedly influences the atmospheric structure leeward of the Andes in western-central Argentina. Its maximum impact occurs at850 to 800 hPa, with significant heating and decrease of humidity. Validation of the prediction program considered deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. Contingency tables show that probability of zonda occurrence in the plains is generally overestimated, and false alarm cases are far more frequent than surprise events. The main contribution of this paper is precisely the validation of the prediction model, which ensures forecasters one more tool to improve zonda forecasting; this, in turn, will aid decision-makers when taking steps to ameliorate zonda wind impact.
Fil: Norte, Federico Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
Fil: Simonelli, Silvia Carmen. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina
description Zonda is a strong, warm, very dry wind associated with adiabatic compression upon descending the eastern slopes of the Andes Cordillera in western-central Argentina. This research seeks, first, to validate the skill of a statistical forecast of zonda based on the behavior of the vertical structure of the atmosphere and, second, to describe the climatology of the vertical profile leeward of the Andes. The forecast was built for May-August 1974/1983, and was verified against a series of cases recorded in the Mendoza Aero and San Juan Aero weather stations for May-August 2005/2014.It made use of the Stepwise Discriminant Analysis (SDA) and rawinsonde data from Mendoza Aero as predictors, with the following input variables: surface pressure, temperature, dew point, and the zonal and meridional components of the wind on surface and of the fixed levels up to 200 hPa.The variables selected as predictors by the SDA were: surface pressure, dew point depression at 850 hPa, meridional wind component at 850 hPa, and zonal wind component at 400 hPa. Climatology of the vertical profile of the atmosphere leeward of the Andes was built from daily rawinsonde data from Mendoza Aero for May-August 1974/1983. Zonda markedly influences the atmospheric structure leeward of the Andes in western-central Argentina. Its maximum impact occurs at850 to 800 hPa, with significant heating and decrease of humidity. Validation of the prediction program considered deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. Contingency tables show that probability of zonda occurrence in the plains is generally overestimated, and false alarm cases are far more frequent than surprise events. The main contribution of this paper is precisely the validation of the prediction model, which ensures forecasters one more tool to improve zonda forecasting; this, in turn, will aid decision-makers when taking steps to ameliorate zonda wind impact.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/73230
Norte, Federico Augusto; Simonelli, Silvia Carmen; Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure; Scientific Research; Atmospheric and Climate Science; 6; 1-2016; 35-50
2160-0414
2160-0422
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/73230
identifier_str_mv Norte, Federico Augusto; Simonelli, Silvia Carmen; Validation of a Statistical Forecast Model for Zonda Wind in West Argentina Based on the Vertical Atmospheric Structure; Scientific Research; Atmospheric and Climate Science; 6; 1-2016; 35-50
2160-0414
2160-0422
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.4236/acs.2016.61004
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=62658
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Scientific Research
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Scientific Research
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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