Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?
- Autores
- Zank, Caroline; Becker, Fernando Gertum; Abadie, Michelle; Baldo, Juan Diego; Maneyro, Raúl; Borges Martins, Márcio
- Año de publicación
- 2014
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.
Fil: Zank, Caroline. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
Fil: Becker, Fernando Gertum. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
Fil: Abadie, Michelle. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
Fil: Baldo, Juan Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Nordeste. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Posadas; Argentina
Fil: Maneyro, Raúl. Universidad de la Republica; Uruguay
Fil: Borges Martins, Márcio. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil - Materia
-
species distribution models
global change
conservation
suitable climatic areas
rare species. - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/9302
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Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?Zank, CarolineBecker, Fernando GertumAbadie, MichelleBaldo, Juan DiegoManeyro, RaúlBorges Martins, Márciospecies distribution modelsglobal changeconservationsuitable climatic areasrare species.https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.Fil: Zank, Caroline. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Becker, Fernando Gertum. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Abadie, Michelle. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Baldo, Juan Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Nordeste. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Posadas; ArgentinaFil: Maneyro, Raúl. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Borges Martins, Márcio. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilPublic Library Of Science2014-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/9302Zank, Caroline; Becker, Fernando Gertum; Abadie, Michelle; Baldo, Juan Diego; Maneyro, Raúl; et al.; Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 9; 4; 4-2014; 1-111932-6203enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3995645/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0094625info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0094625info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:06:30Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/9302instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:06:30.282CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations? |
title |
Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations? |
spellingShingle |
Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations? Zank, Caroline species distribution models global change conservation suitable climatic areas rare species. |
title_short |
Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations? |
title_full |
Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations? |
title_fullStr |
Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations? |
title_sort |
Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations? |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Zank, Caroline Becker, Fernando Gertum Abadie, Michelle Baldo, Juan Diego Maneyro, Raúl Borges Martins, Márcio |
author |
Zank, Caroline |
author_facet |
Zank, Caroline Becker, Fernando Gertum Abadie, Michelle Baldo, Juan Diego Maneyro, Raúl Borges Martins, Márcio |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Becker, Fernando Gertum Abadie, Michelle Baldo, Juan Diego Maneyro, Raúl Borges Martins, Márcio |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
species distribution models global change conservation suitable climatic areas rare species. |
topic |
species distribution models global change conservation suitable climatic areas rare species. |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term. Fil: Zank, Caroline. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil Fil: Becker, Fernando Gertum. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil Fil: Abadie, Michelle. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil Fil: Baldo, Juan Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Nordeste. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Posadas; Argentina Fil: Maneyro, Raúl. Universidad de la Republica; Uruguay Fil: Borges Martins, Márcio. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil |
description |
We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term. |
publishDate |
2014 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2014-04 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/9302 Zank, Caroline; Becker, Fernando Gertum; Abadie, Michelle; Baldo, Juan Diego; Maneyro, Raúl; et al.; Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 9; 4; 4-2014; 1-11 1932-6203 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/9302 |
identifier_str_mv |
Zank, Caroline; Becker, Fernando Gertum; Abadie, Michelle; Baldo, Juan Diego; Maneyro, Raúl; et al.; Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 9; 4; 4-2014; 1-11 1932-6203 |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3995645/ info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0094625 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0094625 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Public Library Of Science |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Public Library Of Science |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1844613913989087232 |
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13.070432 |