Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?

Autores
Zank, Caroline; Becker, Fernando Gertum; Abadie, Michelle; Baldo, Juan Diego; Maneyro, Raúl; Borges Martins, Márcio
Año de publicación
2014
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.
Fil: Zank, Caroline. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
Fil: Becker, Fernando Gertum. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
Fil: Abadie, Michelle. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
Fil: Baldo, Juan Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Nordeste. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Posadas; Argentina
Fil: Maneyro, Raúl. Universidad de la Republica; Uruguay
Fil: Borges Martins, Márcio. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
Materia
species distribution models
global change
conservation
suitable climatic areas
rare species.
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/9302

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?Zank, CarolineBecker, Fernando GertumAbadie, MichelleBaldo, Juan DiegoManeyro, RaúlBorges Martins, Márciospecies distribution modelsglobal changeconservationsuitable climatic areasrare species.https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.Fil: Zank, Caroline. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Becker, Fernando Gertum. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Abadie, Michelle. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Baldo, Juan Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Nordeste. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Posadas; ArgentinaFil: Maneyro, Raúl. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Borges Martins, Márcio. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilPublic Library Of Science2014-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/9302Zank, Caroline; Becker, Fernando Gertum; Abadie, Michelle; Baldo, Juan Diego; Maneyro, Raúl; et al.; Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 9; 4; 4-2014; 1-111932-6203enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3995645/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0094625info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0094625info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:06:30Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/9302instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:06:30.282CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?
title Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?
spellingShingle Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?
Zank, Caroline
species distribution models
global change
conservation
suitable climatic areas
rare species.
title_short Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?
title_full Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?
title_fullStr Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?
title_full_unstemmed Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?
title_sort Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Zank, Caroline
Becker, Fernando Gertum
Abadie, Michelle
Baldo, Juan Diego
Maneyro, Raúl
Borges Martins, Márcio
author Zank, Caroline
author_facet Zank, Caroline
Becker, Fernando Gertum
Abadie, Michelle
Baldo, Juan Diego
Maneyro, Raúl
Borges Martins, Márcio
author_role author
author2 Becker, Fernando Gertum
Abadie, Michelle
Baldo, Juan Diego
Maneyro, Raúl
Borges Martins, Márcio
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv species distribution models
global change
conservation
suitable climatic areas
rare species.
topic species distribution models
global change
conservation
suitable climatic areas
rare species.
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.
Fil: Zank, Caroline. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
Fil: Becker, Fernando Gertum. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
Fil: Abadie, Michelle. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
Fil: Baldo, Juan Diego. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Nordeste. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Posadas; Argentina
Fil: Maneyro, Raúl. Universidad de la Republica; Uruguay
Fil: Borges Martins, Márcio. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; Brasil
description We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/9302
Zank, Caroline; Becker, Fernando Gertum; Abadie, Michelle; Baldo, Juan Diego; Maneyro, Raúl; et al.; Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 9; 4; 4-2014; 1-11
1932-6203
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/9302
identifier_str_mv Zank, Caroline; Becker, Fernando Gertum; Abadie, Michelle; Baldo, Juan Diego; Maneyro, Raúl; et al.; Climate change in the distribution of neotropical redbelly toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to prioritize species and populations?; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 9; 4; 4-2014; 1-11
1932-6203
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3995645/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0094625
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0094625
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library Of Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library Of Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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