Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina

Autores
Salgado, Maria Victoria; Penko, Joanne; Fernandez, Alicia; Mejia, Raul Mariano
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Introduction Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours. Methods To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively. Results Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths. Conclusions The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking.
Fil: Salgado, Maria Victoria. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Penko, Joanne. University of California; Estados Unidos
Fil: Fernandez, Alicia. University of California; Estados Unidos
Fil: Mejia, Raul Mariano. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Hospital de Clínicas General San Martín; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Materia
LOW/MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY
PACKAGING AND LABELLING
PUBLIC POLICY
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/217085

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in ArgentinaSalgado, Maria VictoriaPenko, JoanneFernandez, AliciaMejia, Raul MarianoLOW/MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRYPACKAGING AND LABELLINGPUBLIC POLICYhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3Introduction Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours. Methods To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively. Results Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths. Conclusions The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking.Fil: Salgado, Maria Victoria. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Penko, Joanne. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Fernandez, Alicia. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Mejia, Raul Mariano. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Hospital de Clínicas General San Martín; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaB M J Publishing Group2021-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/217085Salgado, Maria Victoria; Penko, Joanne; Fernandez, Alicia; Mejia, Raul Mariano; Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina; B M J Publishing Group; Tobacco Control; 32; 2; 7-2021; 255-2580964-4563CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056651info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:56:08Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/217085instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:56:08.998CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina
title Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina
spellingShingle Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina
Salgado, Maria Victoria
LOW/MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY
PACKAGING AND LABELLING
PUBLIC POLICY
title_short Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina
title_full Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina
title_fullStr Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina
title_sort Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Salgado, Maria Victoria
Penko, Joanne
Fernandez, Alicia
Mejia, Raul Mariano
author Salgado, Maria Victoria
author_facet Salgado, Maria Victoria
Penko, Joanne
Fernandez, Alicia
Mejia, Raul Mariano
author_role author
author2 Penko, Joanne
Fernandez, Alicia
Mejia, Raul Mariano
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv LOW/MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY
PACKAGING AND LABELLING
PUBLIC POLICY
topic LOW/MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY
PACKAGING AND LABELLING
PUBLIC POLICY
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Introduction Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours. Methods To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively. Results Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths. Conclusions The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking.
Fil: Salgado, Maria Victoria. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Penko, Joanne. University of California; Estados Unidos
Fil: Fernandez, Alicia. University of California; Estados Unidos
Fil: Mejia, Raul Mariano. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Hospital de Clínicas General San Martín; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
description Introduction Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours. Methods To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively. Results Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths. Conclusions The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-07
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217085
Salgado, Maria Victoria; Penko, Joanne; Fernandez, Alicia; Mejia, Raul Mariano; Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina; B M J Publishing Group; Tobacco Control; 32; 2; 7-2021; 255-258
0964-4563
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217085
identifier_str_mv Salgado, Maria Victoria; Penko, Joanne; Fernandez, Alicia; Mejia, Raul Mariano; Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina; B M J Publishing Group; Tobacco Control; 32; 2; 7-2021; 255-258
0964-4563
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056651
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv B M J Publishing Group
publisher.none.fl_str_mv B M J Publishing Group
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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