Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina
- Autores
- Salgado, Maria Victoria; Penko, Joanne; Fernandez, Alicia; Mejia, Raul Mariano
- Año de publicación
- 2021
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Introduction Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours. Methods To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively. Results Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths. Conclusions The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking.
Fil: Salgado, Maria Victoria. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Penko, Joanne. University of California; Estados Unidos
Fil: Fernandez, Alicia. University of California; Estados Unidos
Fil: Mejia, Raul Mariano. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Hospital de Clínicas General San Martín; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina - Materia
-
LOW/MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY
PACKAGING AND LABELLING
PUBLIC POLICY - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/217085
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in ArgentinaSalgado, Maria VictoriaPenko, JoanneFernandez, AliciaMejia, Raul MarianoLOW/MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRYPACKAGING AND LABELLINGPUBLIC POLICYhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3Introduction Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours. Methods To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively. Results Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths. Conclusions The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking.Fil: Salgado, Maria Victoria. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Penko, Joanne. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Fernandez, Alicia. University of California; Estados UnidosFil: Mejia, Raul Mariano. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Hospital de Clínicas General San Martín; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaB M J Publishing Group2021-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/217085Salgado, Maria Victoria; Penko, Joanne; Fernandez, Alicia; Mejia, Raul Mariano; Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina; B M J Publishing Group; Tobacco Control; 32; 2; 7-2021; 255-2580964-4563CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056651info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:56:08Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/217085instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:56:08.998CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina |
title |
Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina |
spellingShingle |
Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina Salgado, Maria Victoria LOW/MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY PACKAGING AND LABELLING PUBLIC POLICY |
title_short |
Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina |
title_full |
Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina |
title_sort |
Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Salgado, Maria Victoria Penko, Joanne Fernandez, Alicia Mejia, Raul Mariano |
author |
Salgado, Maria Victoria |
author_facet |
Salgado, Maria Victoria Penko, Joanne Fernandez, Alicia Mejia, Raul Mariano |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Penko, Joanne Fernandez, Alicia Mejia, Raul Mariano |
author2_role |
author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
LOW/MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY PACKAGING AND LABELLING PUBLIC POLICY |
topic |
LOW/MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY PACKAGING AND LABELLING PUBLIC POLICY |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3.3 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/3 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Introduction Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours. Methods To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively. Results Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths. Conclusions The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking. Fil: Salgado, Maria Victoria. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Penko, Joanne. University of California; Estados Unidos Fil: Fernandez, Alicia. University of California; Estados Unidos Fil: Mejia, Raul Mariano. Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Hospital de Clínicas General San Martín; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina |
description |
Introduction Tobacco packaging design is conceived to be attractive. Plain packaging of tobacco products reduces this attractiveness by standardising their shape, size, font and colours. Methods To evaluate the effect of applying plain packaging to tobacco products on cardiovascular events and mortality in Argentina, we used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina, a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35-94 years old using local demographic and consumption data, during the period 2015-2024. After a literature review, we estimated that the implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products would result in an absolute decrease in tobacco prevalence of 0.55% (base-case scenario) and performed a sensitivity analysis assuming a higher and lower decrease of 1.01% and 0.095%, respectively. Results Over the 2015-2024 period, the decrease in smoking prevalence associated with plain packaging (0.55%) is projected to avert 1880 myocardial infarctions (MI), 820 strokes and 4320 total deaths in Argentina. The higher estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (1.01%) would translate into 3450 fewer MIs, 1490 fewer strokes and 7920 fewer deaths, while the lower estimate of smoking prevalence reduction (0.095%) would result in 330 fewer MIs, 140 fewer strokes and 750 fewer deaths. Conclusions The implementation of plain packaging of tobacco products could reduce cardiovascular events in Argentina, even in the absence of other tobacco control measures. Actual health benefits are likely higher than those presented here, since plain packaging may be most impactful by preventing young people from initiating smoking. |
publishDate |
2021 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-07 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217085 Salgado, Maria Victoria; Penko, Joanne; Fernandez, Alicia; Mejia, Raul Mariano; Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina; B M J Publishing Group; Tobacco Control; 32; 2; 7-2021; 255-258 0964-4563 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/217085 |
identifier_str_mv |
Salgado, Maria Victoria; Penko, Joanne; Fernandez, Alicia; Mejia, Raul Mariano; Modelling the impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on cardiovascular disease in Argentina; B M J Publishing Group; Tobacco Control; 32; 2; 7-2021; 255-258 0964-4563 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056651 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
B M J Publishing Group |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
B M J Publishing Group |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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13.070432 |