Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change

Autores
Duijndam Sem; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Hagedoorn, Liselotte C.; Ton, Marijn; de Bruijn, Jens; Carretero, Silvina Claudia; Dachary Bernard, Jeanne; Rulleau, Bénédicte; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
Año de publicación
2025
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Climate change-induced sea-level rise and associated flood risk will have major impacts on coastal regions worldwide, likely prompting millions of people to migrate elsewhere. Migration behavior is expected to be context-specific, but comparative empirical research on coastal migration under climate change is lacking. We address this gap by utilizing original survey data from coastal Argentina, France, Mozambique and the United States to research determinants of migration under different flood risk scenarios. Here we show that migration is more likely in higher-than in lower-income contexts, and that flood risk is an important driver of migration. Consistent determinants of migration across contexts include response efficacy, self-efficacy, place attachment and age, with variations between scenarios. Other factors such as climate change perceptions, migration costs, social networks, household income, and rurality are also important but context-specific. Furthermore, important trade-offs exist between migration and in-situ adaptation. These findings support policymakers in forging equitable migration pathways under climate change.
Fil: Duijndam Sem. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Fil: Botzen, W. J. Wouter. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos. University of Utrecht; Países Bajos
Fil: Hagedoorn, Liselotte C.. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Fil: Ton, Marijn. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Fil: de Bruijn, Jens. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Fil: Carretero, Silvina Claudia. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Cs.naturales y Museo. Centro de Estudios Integrales de la Dinamica Exogeno.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Dachary Bernard, Jeanne. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; Francia
Fil: Rulleau, Bénédicte. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; Francia
Fil: Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Materia
CLIMATE CHANGE
SEA LEVEL RISE
COASTAL ZONE
MIGRATION
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/280600
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate ChangeDuijndam SemBotzen, W. J. WouterHagedoorn, Liselotte C.Ton, Marijnde Bruijn, JensCarretero, Silvina ClaudiaDachary Bernard, JeanneRulleau, BénédicteAerts, Jeroen C. J. H.CLIMATE CHANGESEA LEVEL RISECOASTAL ZONEMIGRATIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.7https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5Climate change-induced sea-level rise and associated flood risk will have major impacts on coastal regions worldwide, likely prompting millions of people to migrate elsewhere. Migration behavior is expected to be context-specific, but comparative empirical research on coastal migration under climate change is lacking. We address this gap by utilizing original survey data from coastal Argentina, France, Mozambique and the United States to research determinants of migration under different flood risk scenarios. Here we show that migration is more likely in higher-than in lower-income contexts, and that flood risk is an important driver of migration. Consistent determinants of migration across contexts include response efficacy, self-efficacy, place attachment and age, with variations between scenarios. Other factors such as climate change perceptions, migration costs, social networks, household income, and rurality are also important but context-specific. Furthermore, important trade-offs exist between migration and in-situ adaptation. These findings support policymakers in forging equitable migration pathways under climate change.Fil: Duijndam Sem. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: Botzen, W. J. Wouter. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos. University of Utrecht; Países BajosFil: Hagedoorn, Liselotte C.. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: Ton, Marijn. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: de Bruijn, Jens. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: Carretero, Silvina Claudia. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Cs.naturales y Museo. Centro de Estudios Integrales de la Dinamica Exogeno.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Dachary Bernard, Jeanne. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; FranciaFil: Rulleau, Bénédicte. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; FranciaFil: Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países BajosSpringer2025-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/280600Duijndam Sem; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Hagedoorn, Liselotte C.; Ton, Marijn; de Bruijn, Jens; et al.; Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change; Springer; Nature Communications; 16; 1; 4-2025; 1-92041-1723CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-59199-yinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-025-59199-yinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2026-02-06T13:42:51Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/280600instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982026-02-06 13:42:51.531CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change
title Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change
spellingShingle Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change
Duijndam Sem
CLIMATE CHANGE
SEA LEVEL RISE
COASTAL ZONE
MIGRATION
title_short Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change
title_full Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change
title_fullStr Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change
title_sort Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Duijndam Sem
Botzen, W. J. Wouter
Hagedoorn, Liselotte C.
Ton, Marijn
de Bruijn, Jens
Carretero, Silvina Claudia
Dachary Bernard, Jeanne
Rulleau, Bénédicte
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
author Duijndam Sem
author_facet Duijndam Sem
Botzen, W. J. Wouter
Hagedoorn, Liselotte C.
Ton, Marijn
de Bruijn, Jens
Carretero, Silvina Claudia
Dachary Bernard, Jeanne
Rulleau, Bénédicte
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
author_role author
author2 Botzen, W. J. Wouter
Hagedoorn, Liselotte C.
Ton, Marijn
de Bruijn, Jens
Carretero, Silvina Claudia
Dachary Bernard, Jeanne
Rulleau, Bénédicte
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE CHANGE
SEA LEVEL RISE
COASTAL ZONE
MIGRATION
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
SEA LEVEL RISE
COASTAL ZONE
MIGRATION
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.7
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Climate change-induced sea-level rise and associated flood risk will have major impacts on coastal regions worldwide, likely prompting millions of people to migrate elsewhere. Migration behavior is expected to be context-specific, but comparative empirical research on coastal migration under climate change is lacking. We address this gap by utilizing original survey data from coastal Argentina, France, Mozambique and the United States to research determinants of migration under different flood risk scenarios. Here we show that migration is more likely in higher-than in lower-income contexts, and that flood risk is an important driver of migration. Consistent determinants of migration across contexts include response efficacy, self-efficacy, place attachment and age, with variations between scenarios. Other factors such as climate change perceptions, migration costs, social networks, household income, and rurality are also important but context-specific. Furthermore, important trade-offs exist between migration and in-situ adaptation. These findings support policymakers in forging equitable migration pathways under climate change.
Fil: Duijndam Sem. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Fil: Botzen, W. J. Wouter. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos. University of Utrecht; Países Bajos
Fil: Hagedoorn, Liselotte C.. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Fil: Ton, Marijn. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Fil: de Bruijn, Jens. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Fil: Carretero, Silvina Claudia. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Cs.naturales y Museo. Centro de Estudios Integrales de la Dinamica Exogeno.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Dachary Bernard, Jeanne. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; Francia
Fil: Rulleau, Bénédicte. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; Francia
Fil: Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Países Bajos
description Climate change-induced sea-level rise and associated flood risk will have major impacts on coastal regions worldwide, likely prompting millions of people to migrate elsewhere. Migration behavior is expected to be context-specific, but comparative empirical research on coastal migration under climate change is lacking. We address this gap by utilizing original survey data from coastal Argentina, France, Mozambique and the United States to research determinants of migration under different flood risk scenarios. Here we show that migration is more likely in higher-than in lower-income contexts, and that flood risk is an important driver of migration. Consistent determinants of migration across contexts include response efficacy, self-efficacy, place attachment and age, with variations between scenarios. Other factors such as climate change perceptions, migration costs, social networks, household income, and rurality are also important but context-specific. Furthermore, important trade-offs exist between migration and in-situ adaptation. These findings support policymakers in forging equitable migration pathways under climate change.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/280600
Duijndam Sem; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Hagedoorn, Liselotte C.; Ton, Marijn; de Bruijn, Jens; et al.; Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change; Springer; Nature Communications; 16; 1; 4-2025; 1-9
2041-1723
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/280600
identifier_str_mv Duijndam Sem; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Hagedoorn, Liselotte C.; Ton, Marijn; de Bruijn, Jens; et al.; Global Determinants of Coastal Migration under Climate Change; Springer; Nature Communications; 16; 1; 4-2025; 1-9
2041-1723
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-59199-y
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41467-025-59199-y
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.106097

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