Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes

Autores
Bertin, Daniel; Lindsay, Jan M.; Cronin, Shane J.; de Silva, Shanaka L.; Connor, Charles B.; Caffe, Pablo Jorge; Grosse, Pablo; Báez, Walter; Bustos, Emilce; Constantinescu, Robert
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Evaluation of volcanic hazards typically focusses on single eruptive centres or spatially restricted areas, such as volcanic fields. Expanding hazard assessments across wide regions (e.g., large sections of a continental margin) has rarely been attempted, due to the complexity of integrating temporal and spatial variability in tectonic and magmatic processes. In this study, we investigate new approaches to quantify the hazards of such long-term active and complex settings, using the example of the 22.5–28°S segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes. This research is based on the estimation of: 1) spatial probability of future volcanic activity (based on kernel density estimation using a new volcanic geospatial database), 2) temporal probability of future volcanic events, and 3) areas susceptible to volcanic flow and fall processes (based on computer modeling). Integrating these results, we produce a set of volcanic hazard maps. We then calculate the relative probabilities of population centres in the area being affected by any volcanic phenomenon. Touristic towns such as La Poma (Argentina), Toconao (Chile), Antofagasta de la Sierra (Argentina), Socaire (Chile), and Talabre (Chile) are exposed to the highest relative volcanic hazard. In addition, through this work we delineate five regions of high spatial probability (i.e., volcanic clusters), three of which correlate well with geophysical evidence of mid-crustal partial melt bodies. Many of the eruptive centres within these volcanic clusters have poorly known eruption histories and are recommended to be targeted for future work. We hope this contribution will be a useful approach to encourage probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments for other arc segments.
Fil: Bertin, Daniel. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Lindsay, Jan M.. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Cronin, Shane J.. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: de Silva, Shanaka L.. State University of Oregon; Estados Unidos
Fil: Connor, Charles B.. University of Florida; Estados Unidos
Fil: Caffe, Pablo Jorge. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy. Instituto de Ecorregiones Andinas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Ecorregiones Andinas; Argentina
Fil: Grosse, Pablo. Fundación Miguel Lillo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; Argentina
Fil: Báez, Walter. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; Argentina
Fil: Bustos, Emilce. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; Argentina
Fil: Constantinescu, Robert. University of Florida; Estados Unidos
Materia
ARGENTINA
CENTRAL VOLCANIC ZONE
CHILE
MATHAZ
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/205152
Acceder
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repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the AndesBertin, DanielLindsay, Jan M.Cronin, Shane J.de Silva, Shanaka L.Connor, Charles B.Caffe, Pablo JorgeGrosse, PabloBáez, WalterBustos, EmilceConstantinescu, RobertARGENTINACENTRAL VOLCANIC ZONECHILEMATHAZVOLCANIC HAZARDShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Evaluation of volcanic hazards typically focusses on single eruptive centres or spatially restricted areas, such as volcanic fields. Expanding hazard assessments across wide regions (e.g., large sections of a continental margin) has rarely been attempted, due to the complexity of integrating temporal and spatial variability in tectonic and magmatic processes. In this study, we investigate new approaches to quantify the hazards of such long-term active and complex settings, using the example of the 22.5–28°S segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes. This research is based on the estimation of: 1) spatial probability of future volcanic activity (based on kernel density estimation using a new volcanic geospatial database), 2) temporal probability of future volcanic events, and 3) areas susceptible to volcanic flow and fall processes (based on computer modeling). Integrating these results, we produce a set of volcanic hazard maps. We then calculate the relative probabilities of population centres in the area being affected by any volcanic phenomenon. Touristic towns such as La Poma (Argentina), Toconao (Chile), Antofagasta de la Sierra (Argentina), Socaire (Chile), and Talabre (Chile) are exposed to the highest relative volcanic hazard. In addition, through this work we delineate five regions of high spatial probability (i.e., volcanic clusters), three of which correlate well with geophysical evidence of mid-crustal partial melt bodies. Many of the eruptive centres within these volcanic clusters have poorly known eruption histories and are recommended to be targeted for future work. We hope this contribution will be a useful approach to encourage probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments for other arc segments.Fil: Bertin, Daniel. University of Auckland; Nueva ZelandaFil: Lindsay, Jan M.. University of Auckland; Nueva ZelandaFil: Cronin, Shane J.. University of Auckland; Nueva ZelandaFil: de Silva, Shanaka L.. State University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Connor, Charles B.. University of Florida; Estados UnidosFil: Caffe, Pablo Jorge. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy. Instituto de Ecorregiones Andinas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Ecorregiones Andinas; ArgentinaFil: Grosse, Pablo. Fundación Miguel Lillo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; ArgentinaFil: Báez, Walter. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Bustos, Emilce. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Constantinescu, Robert. University of Florida; Estados UnidosFrontiers Media2022-06info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/205152Bertin, Daniel; Lindsay, Jan M.; Cronin, Shane J.; de Silva, Shanaka L.; Connor, Charles B.; et al.; Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes; Frontiers Media; Frontiers in Earth Science; 10; 6-2022; 1-222296-6463CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.875439/fullinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/feart.2022.875439info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:01:41Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/205152instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:01:41.527CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
title Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
spellingShingle Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Bertin, Daniel
ARGENTINA
CENTRAL VOLCANIC ZONE
CHILE
MATHAZ
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
title_short Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
title_full Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
title_fullStr Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
title_full_unstemmed Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
title_sort Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Bertin, Daniel
Lindsay, Jan M.
Cronin, Shane J.
de Silva, Shanaka L.
Connor, Charles B.
Caffe, Pablo Jorge
Grosse, Pablo
Báez, Walter
Bustos, Emilce
Constantinescu, Robert
author Bertin, Daniel
author_facet Bertin, Daniel
Lindsay, Jan M.
Cronin, Shane J.
de Silva, Shanaka L.
Connor, Charles B.
Caffe, Pablo Jorge
Grosse, Pablo
Báez, Walter
Bustos, Emilce
Constantinescu, Robert
author_role author
author2 Lindsay, Jan M.
Cronin, Shane J.
de Silva, Shanaka L.
Connor, Charles B.
Caffe, Pablo Jorge
Grosse, Pablo
Báez, Walter
Bustos, Emilce
Constantinescu, Robert
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv ARGENTINA
CENTRAL VOLCANIC ZONE
CHILE
MATHAZ
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
topic ARGENTINA
CENTRAL VOLCANIC ZONE
CHILE
MATHAZ
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Evaluation of volcanic hazards typically focusses on single eruptive centres or spatially restricted areas, such as volcanic fields. Expanding hazard assessments across wide regions (e.g., large sections of a continental margin) has rarely been attempted, due to the complexity of integrating temporal and spatial variability in tectonic and magmatic processes. In this study, we investigate new approaches to quantify the hazards of such long-term active and complex settings, using the example of the 22.5–28°S segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes. This research is based on the estimation of: 1) spatial probability of future volcanic activity (based on kernel density estimation using a new volcanic geospatial database), 2) temporal probability of future volcanic events, and 3) areas susceptible to volcanic flow and fall processes (based on computer modeling). Integrating these results, we produce a set of volcanic hazard maps. We then calculate the relative probabilities of population centres in the area being affected by any volcanic phenomenon. Touristic towns such as La Poma (Argentina), Toconao (Chile), Antofagasta de la Sierra (Argentina), Socaire (Chile), and Talabre (Chile) are exposed to the highest relative volcanic hazard. In addition, through this work we delineate five regions of high spatial probability (i.e., volcanic clusters), three of which correlate well with geophysical evidence of mid-crustal partial melt bodies. Many of the eruptive centres within these volcanic clusters have poorly known eruption histories and are recommended to be targeted for future work. We hope this contribution will be a useful approach to encourage probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments for other arc segments.
Fil: Bertin, Daniel. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Lindsay, Jan M.. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Cronin, Shane J.. University of Auckland; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: de Silva, Shanaka L.. State University of Oregon; Estados Unidos
Fil: Connor, Charles B.. University of Florida; Estados Unidos
Fil: Caffe, Pablo Jorge. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy. Instituto de Ecorregiones Andinas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Ecorregiones Andinas; Argentina
Fil: Grosse, Pablo. Fundación Miguel Lillo; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; Argentina
Fil: Báez, Walter. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; Argentina
Fil: Bustos, Emilce. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; Argentina
Fil: Constantinescu, Robert. University of Florida; Estados Unidos
description Evaluation of volcanic hazards typically focusses on single eruptive centres or spatially restricted areas, such as volcanic fields. Expanding hazard assessments across wide regions (e.g., large sections of a continental margin) has rarely been attempted, due to the complexity of integrating temporal and spatial variability in tectonic and magmatic processes. In this study, we investigate new approaches to quantify the hazards of such long-term active and complex settings, using the example of the 22.5–28°S segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes. This research is based on the estimation of: 1) spatial probability of future volcanic activity (based on kernel density estimation using a new volcanic geospatial database), 2) temporal probability of future volcanic events, and 3) areas susceptible to volcanic flow and fall processes (based on computer modeling). Integrating these results, we produce a set of volcanic hazard maps. We then calculate the relative probabilities of population centres in the area being affected by any volcanic phenomenon. Touristic towns such as La Poma (Argentina), Toconao (Chile), Antofagasta de la Sierra (Argentina), Socaire (Chile), and Talabre (Chile) are exposed to the highest relative volcanic hazard. In addition, through this work we delineate five regions of high spatial probability (i.e., volcanic clusters), three of which correlate well with geophysical evidence of mid-crustal partial melt bodies. Many of the eruptive centres within these volcanic clusters have poorly known eruption histories and are recommended to be targeted for future work. We hope this contribution will be a useful approach to encourage probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments for other arc segments.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-06
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/205152
Bertin, Daniel; Lindsay, Jan M.; Cronin, Shane J.; de Silva, Shanaka L.; Connor, Charles B.; et al.; Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes; Frontiers Media; Frontiers in Earth Science; 10; 6-2022; 1-22
2296-6463
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/205152
identifier_str_mv Bertin, Daniel; Lindsay, Jan M.; Cronin, Shane J.; de Silva, Shanaka L.; Connor, Charles B.; et al.; Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of the 22.5–28°S Segment of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes; Frontiers Media; Frontiers in Earth Science; 10; 6-2022; 1-22
2296-6463
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.875439/full
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3389/feart.2022.875439
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.13397

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