Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022

Autores
Bun, Rostyslav; Marland, Gregg; Oda, Tomohiro; See, Linda; Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; Nahorski, Zbigniew; Jonas, Mathias; Kovalyshyn, Vasyl; Ialongo, Iolanda; Yashchun, Orysia; Romanchuk, Zoriana
Año de publicación
2024
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are mandatory for Parties under the Paris Agreement. Emissions reporting is important for understanding the global carbon cycle and for addressing global climate change. However, in a period of open conflict or war, military emissions increase significantly and the accounting system is not currently designed to account adequately for this source. In this paper we analyze how, during the first 18 months of the 2022/2023 full-scale war in Ukraine, GHG national inventory reporting to the UNFCCC was affected. We estimated the decrease of emissions due to a reduction in traditional human activities. We identified major, war-related, emission processes from the territory of Ukraine not covered by current GHG inventory guidelines and that are not likely to be included in national inventory reports. If these emissions are included, they will likely be incorporated in a way that is not transparent with potentially high uncertainty. We analyze publicly available data and use expert judgment to estimate such emissions from (1) the use of bombs, missiles, barrel artillery, and mines; (2) the consumption of oil products for military operations; (3) fires at petroleum storage depots and refineries; (4) fires in buildings and infrastructure facilities; (5) fires on forest and agricultural lands; and (6) the decomposition of war-related garbage/waste. Our estimate of these war-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for the first 18 months of the war in Ukraine is 77 MtCO2-eq. with a relative uncertainty of +/−22 % (95 % confidence interval).
Fil: Bun, Rostyslav. Lviv Polytechnic National University; Ucrania
Fil: Marland, Gregg. Appalachian State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Oda, Tomohiro. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos
Fil: See, Linda. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; Austria
Fil: Puliafito, Salvador Enrique. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; Argentina
Fil: Nahorski, Zbigniew. Polish Academy of Sciences; Argentina
Fil: Jonas, Mathias. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; Austria
Fil: Kovalyshyn, Vasyl. Lviv State University Of Life Safety; Ucrania
Fil: Ialongo, Iolanda. Finnish Meteorological Institute; Finlandia
Fil: Yashchun, Orysia. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; Austria
Fil: Romanchuk, Zoriana. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; Austria
Materia
GHG EMISSION REPORTING
UNCERTAINTY IN GHG EMISSIONS
UNREPORTED GHG EMISSIONS
WAR IN UKRAINE
WARTIME GHG EMISSIONS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/231248

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022Bun, RostyslavMarland, GreggOda, TomohiroSee, LindaPuliafito, Salvador EnriqueNahorski, ZbigniewJonas, MathiasKovalyshyn, VasylIalongo, IolandaYashchun, OrysiaRomanchuk, ZorianaGHG EMISSION REPORTINGUNCERTAINTY IN GHG EMISSIONSUNREPORTED GHG EMISSIONSWAR IN UKRAINEWARTIME GHG EMISSIONShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are mandatory for Parties under the Paris Agreement. Emissions reporting is important for understanding the global carbon cycle and for addressing global climate change. However, in a period of open conflict or war, military emissions increase significantly and the accounting system is not currently designed to account adequately for this source. In this paper we analyze how, during the first 18 months of the 2022/2023 full-scale war in Ukraine, GHG national inventory reporting to the UNFCCC was affected. We estimated the decrease of emissions due to a reduction in traditional human activities. We identified major, war-related, emission processes from the territory of Ukraine not covered by current GHG inventory guidelines and that are not likely to be included in national inventory reports. If these emissions are included, they will likely be incorporated in a way that is not transparent with potentially high uncertainty. We analyze publicly available data and use expert judgment to estimate such emissions from (1) the use of bombs, missiles, barrel artillery, and mines; (2) the consumption of oil products for military operations; (3) fires at petroleum storage depots and refineries; (4) fires in buildings and infrastructure facilities; (5) fires on forest and agricultural lands; and (6) the decomposition of war-related garbage/waste. Our estimate of these war-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for the first 18 months of the war in Ukraine is 77 MtCO2-eq. with a relative uncertainty of +/−22 % (95 % confidence interval).Fil: Bun, Rostyslav. Lviv Polytechnic National University; UcraniaFil: Marland, Gregg. Appalachian State University; Estados UnidosFil: Oda, Tomohiro. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: See, Linda. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; AustriaFil: Puliafito, Salvador Enrique. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; ArgentinaFil: Nahorski, Zbigniew. Polish Academy of Sciences; ArgentinaFil: Jonas, Mathias. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; AustriaFil: Kovalyshyn, Vasyl. Lviv State University Of Life Safety; UcraniaFil: Ialongo, Iolanda. Finnish Meteorological Institute; FinlandiaFil: Yashchun, Orysia. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; AustriaFil: Romanchuk, Zoriana. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; AustriaElsevier2024-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/231248Bun, Rostyslav; Marland, Gregg; Oda, Tomohiro; See, Linda; Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; et al.; Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022; Elsevier; Science of the Total Environment; 914; 3-2024; 1-150048-9697CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169879info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:32:45Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/231248instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:32:46.186CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022
title Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022
spellingShingle Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022
Bun, Rostyslav
GHG EMISSION REPORTING
UNCERTAINTY IN GHG EMISSIONS
UNREPORTED GHG EMISSIONS
WAR IN UKRAINE
WARTIME GHG EMISSIONS
title_short Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022
title_full Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022
title_fullStr Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022
title_full_unstemmed Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022
title_sort Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Bun, Rostyslav
Marland, Gregg
Oda, Tomohiro
See, Linda
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique
Nahorski, Zbigniew
Jonas, Mathias
Kovalyshyn, Vasyl
Ialongo, Iolanda
Yashchun, Orysia
Romanchuk, Zoriana
author Bun, Rostyslav
author_facet Bun, Rostyslav
Marland, Gregg
Oda, Tomohiro
See, Linda
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique
Nahorski, Zbigniew
Jonas, Mathias
Kovalyshyn, Vasyl
Ialongo, Iolanda
Yashchun, Orysia
Romanchuk, Zoriana
author_role author
author2 Marland, Gregg
Oda, Tomohiro
See, Linda
Puliafito, Salvador Enrique
Nahorski, Zbigniew
Jonas, Mathias
Kovalyshyn, Vasyl
Ialongo, Iolanda
Yashchun, Orysia
Romanchuk, Zoriana
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv GHG EMISSION REPORTING
UNCERTAINTY IN GHG EMISSIONS
UNREPORTED GHG EMISSIONS
WAR IN UKRAINE
WARTIME GHG EMISSIONS
topic GHG EMISSION REPORTING
UNCERTAINTY IN GHG EMISSIONS
UNREPORTED GHG EMISSIONS
WAR IN UKRAINE
WARTIME GHG EMISSIONS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are mandatory for Parties under the Paris Agreement. Emissions reporting is important for understanding the global carbon cycle and for addressing global climate change. However, in a period of open conflict or war, military emissions increase significantly and the accounting system is not currently designed to account adequately for this source. In this paper we analyze how, during the first 18 months of the 2022/2023 full-scale war in Ukraine, GHG national inventory reporting to the UNFCCC was affected. We estimated the decrease of emissions due to a reduction in traditional human activities. We identified major, war-related, emission processes from the territory of Ukraine not covered by current GHG inventory guidelines and that are not likely to be included in national inventory reports. If these emissions are included, they will likely be incorporated in a way that is not transparent with potentially high uncertainty. We analyze publicly available data and use expert judgment to estimate such emissions from (1) the use of bombs, missiles, barrel artillery, and mines; (2) the consumption of oil products for military operations; (3) fires at petroleum storage depots and refineries; (4) fires in buildings and infrastructure facilities; (5) fires on forest and agricultural lands; and (6) the decomposition of war-related garbage/waste. Our estimate of these war-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for the first 18 months of the war in Ukraine is 77 MtCO2-eq. with a relative uncertainty of +/−22 % (95 % confidence interval).
Fil: Bun, Rostyslav. Lviv Polytechnic National University; Ucrania
Fil: Marland, Gregg. Appalachian State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Oda, Tomohiro. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos
Fil: See, Linda. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; Austria
Fil: Puliafito, Salvador Enrique. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; Argentina
Fil: Nahorski, Zbigniew. Polish Academy of Sciences; Argentina
Fil: Jonas, Mathias. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; Austria
Fil: Kovalyshyn, Vasyl. Lviv State University Of Life Safety; Ucrania
Fil: Ialongo, Iolanda. Finnish Meteorological Institute; Finlandia
Fil: Yashchun, Orysia. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; Austria
Fil: Romanchuk, Zoriana. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis; Austria
description Accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are mandatory for Parties under the Paris Agreement. Emissions reporting is important for understanding the global carbon cycle and for addressing global climate change. However, in a period of open conflict or war, military emissions increase significantly and the accounting system is not currently designed to account adequately for this source. In this paper we analyze how, during the first 18 months of the 2022/2023 full-scale war in Ukraine, GHG national inventory reporting to the UNFCCC was affected. We estimated the decrease of emissions due to a reduction in traditional human activities. We identified major, war-related, emission processes from the territory of Ukraine not covered by current GHG inventory guidelines and that are not likely to be included in national inventory reports. If these emissions are included, they will likely be incorporated in a way that is not transparent with potentially high uncertainty. We analyze publicly available data and use expert judgment to estimate such emissions from (1) the use of bombs, missiles, barrel artillery, and mines; (2) the consumption of oil products for military operations; (3) fires at petroleum storage depots and refineries; (4) fires in buildings and infrastructure facilities; (5) fires on forest and agricultural lands; and (6) the decomposition of war-related garbage/waste. Our estimate of these war-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for the first 18 months of the war in Ukraine is 77 MtCO2-eq. with a relative uncertainty of +/−22 % (95 % confidence interval).
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/231248
Bun, Rostyslav; Marland, Gregg; Oda, Tomohiro; See, Linda; Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; et al.; Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022; Elsevier; Science of the Total Environment; 914; 3-2024; 1-15
0048-9697
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/231248
identifier_str_mv Bun, Rostyslav; Marland, Gregg; Oda, Tomohiro; See, Linda; Puliafito, Salvador Enrique; et al.; Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022; Elsevier; Science of the Total Environment; 914; 3-2024; 1-15
0048-9697
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169879
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
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