Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets

Autores
Solman, Silvina Alicia; Orlanski, Isidoro
Año de publicación
2016
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In this study, a set of five reanalysis datasets [ERA-Interim, NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R2), MERRA, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)] is used to provide a robust estimation of precipitation change in the middle-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere during the last three decades. Based on several metrics accounting for the eddy activity and moisture availability, an attempt is also made to identify the dynamical mechanisms triggering these changes during extended summer and winter seasons. To that aim, a weighted reanalysis ensemble is built using the inverse of the variance as weighting factors for each variable. Results showed that the weighted reanalysis ensemble reproduced the observed precipitation changes at high and middle latitudes during the two seasons, as depicted by the GPCP dataset. For the extended summer season, precipitation changes were dynamically consistent with changes in the eddy activity, attributed mostly to ozone depletion. For the extended winter season, the eddy activity and moisture availability both contributed to the precipitation changes, with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases being the main driver of the climate change signal. In addition, output from a five-member ensemble of the high-resolution GFDL CM2.5 for the period 1979– 2010 was used in order to explore the capability of the model in reproducing both the observed precipitation change and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The model was able to capture the rainfall change signal. However, the increased availability of moisture from the lower levels controls the precipitation change during both summer and winter.
Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Orlanski, Isidoro. University of Princeton; Estados Unidos
Materia
CLIMATE CHANGE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
REANALYSIS
ENSEMBLE
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17808

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spelling Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasetsSolman, Silvina AliciaOrlanski, IsidoroCLIMATE CHANGESOUTHERN HEMISPHEREREANALYSISENSEMBLEhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In this study, a set of five reanalysis datasets [ERA-Interim, NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R2), MERRA, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)] is used to provide a robust estimation of precipitation change in the middle-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere during the last three decades. Based on several metrics accounting for the eddy activity and moisture availability, an attempt is also made to identify the dynamical mechanisms triggering these changes during extended summer and winter seasons. To that aim, a weighted reanalysis ensemble is built using the inverse of the variance as weighting factors for each variable. Results showed that the weighted reanalysis ensemble reproduced the observed precipitation changes at high and middle latitudes during the two seasons, as depicted by the GPCP dataset. For the extended summer season, precipitation changes were dynamically consistent with changes in the eddy activity, attributed mostly to ozone depletion. For the extended winter season, the eddy activity and moisture availability both contributed to the precipitation changes, with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases being the main driver of the climate change signal. In addition, output from a five-member ensemble of the high-resolution GFDL CM2.5 for the period 1979– 2010 was used in order to explore the capability of the model in reproducing both the observed precipitation change and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The model was able to capture the rainfall change signal. However, the increased availability of moisture from the lower levels controls the precipitation change during both summer and winter.Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; ArgentinaFil: Orlanski, Isidoro. University of Princeton; Estados UnidosAmerican Meteorological Society2016-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/17808Solman, Silvina Alicia; Orlanski, Isidoro; Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets; American Meteorological Society; Journal Of Climate; 29; 5; 3-2016; 1673-16870894-8755enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0588.1info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0588.1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T09:53:31Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17808instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 09:53:31.662CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
title Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
spellingShingle Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
Solman, Silvina Alicia
CLIMATE CHANGE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
REANALYSIS
ENSEMBLE
title_short Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
title_full Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
title_fullStr Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
title_full_unstemmed Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
title_sort Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Solman, Silvina Alicia
Orlanski, Isidoro
author Solman, Silvina Alicia
author_facet Solman, Silvina Alicia
Orlanski, Isidoro
author_role author
author2 Orlanski, Isidoro
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE CHANGE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
REANALYSIS
ENSEMBLE
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
REANALYSIS
ENSEMBLE
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In this study, a set of five reanalysis datasets [ERA-Interim, NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R2), MERRA, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)] is used to provide a robust estimation of precipitation change in the middle-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere during the last three decades. Based on several metrics accounting for the eddy activity and moisture availability, an attempt is also made to identify the dynamical mechanisms triggering these changes during extended summer and winter seasons. To that aim, a weighted reanalysis ensemble is built using the inverse of the variance as weighting factors for each variable. Results showed that the weighted reanalysis ensemble reproduced the observed precipitation changes at high and middle latitudes during the two seasons, as depicted by the GPCP dataset. For the extended summer season, precipitation changes were dynamically consistent with changes in the eddy activity, attributed mostly to ozone depletion. For the extended winter season, the eddy activity and moisture availability both contributed to the precipitation changes, with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases being the main driver of the climate change signal. In addition, output from a five-member ensemble of the high-resolution GFDL CM2.5 for the period 1979– 2010 was used in order to explore the capability of the model in reproducing both the observed precipitation change and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The model was able to capture the rainfall change signal. However, the increased availability of moisture from the lower levels controls the precipitation change during both summer and winter.
Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera; Argentina
Fil: Orlanski, Isidoro. University of Princeton; Estados Unidos
description In this study, a set of five reanalysis datasets [ERA-Interim, NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R2), MERRA, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR)] is used to provide a robust estimation of precipitation change in the middle-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere during the last three decades. Based on several metrics accounting for the eddy activity and moisture availability, an attempt is also made to identify the dynamical mechanisms triggering these changes during extended summer and winter seasons. To that aim, a weighted reanalysis ensemble is built using the inverse of the variance as weighting factors for each variable. Results showed that the weighted reanalysis ensemble reproduced the observed precipitation changes at high and middle latitudes during the two seasons, as depicted by the GPCP dataset. For the extended summer season, precipitation changes were dynamically consistent with changes in the eddy activity, attributed mostly to ozone depletion. For the extended winter season, the eddy activity and moisture availability both contributed to the precipitation changes, with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases being the main driver of the climate change signal. In addition, output from a five-member ensemble of the high-resolution GFDL CM2.5 for the period 1979– 2010 was used in order to explore the capability of the model in reproducing both the observed precipitation change and the underlying dynamical mechanisms. The model was able to capture the rainfall change signal. However, the increased availability of moisture from the lower levels controls the precipitation change during both summer and winter.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17808
Solman, Silvina Alicia; Orlanski, Isidoro; Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets; American Meteorological Society; Journal Of Climate; 29; 5; 3-2016; 1673-1687
0894-8755
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17808
identifier_str_mv Solman, Silvina Alicia; Orlanski, Isidoro; Climate change over the extratropical southern hemisphere: the tale from an ensemble of reanalysis datasets; American Meteorological Society; Journal Of Climate; 29; 5; 3-2016; 1673-1687
0894-8755
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0588.1
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0588.1
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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