Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM)

Autores
Milanesi, Gastón; Broz, Diego Ricardo; Tohmé, Fernando Abel; Rossit, Daniel Alejandro
Año de publicación
2014
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This paper introduces a fuzzy forestry investment decision-making tool based. It will be applied to choose optimal levels of investment when three possible scenarios are conceived, a base case and two extreme alternatives: optimistic and pessimistic. Decision-makers can be seen as being either owners of a forest or investors. For each of these roles the possibility degrees of the scenarios may be represented by means of fuzzy numbers, representing ambiguous net present values (NPV). Real option values (ROV) are then computed based on them. The application to a potential forestry project in Argentina shows that, while in the case of an owner of forestry project the expected benefits are both positive under NPV and ROV, an investor would discard the project if she assumes equal weights for the scenarios in a traditional analysis but would accept it under the fuzzy approach.
Fil: Milanesi, Gastón. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Ciencias de la Administración; Argentina
Fil: Broz, Diego Ricardo. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Ciencias de la Administración; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Tohmé, Fernando Abel. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Rossit, Daniel Alejandro. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Ingeniería; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Materia
Fuzzy Number
Npv (Net Present Value)
Rov (Real Option Value)
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/29862
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM)Milanesi, GastónBroz, Diego RicardoTohmé, Fernando AbelRossit, Daniel AlejandroFuzzy NumberNpv (Net Present Value)Rov (Real Option Value)https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.2https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5This paper introduces a fuzzy forestry investment decision-making tool based. It will be applied to choose optimal levels of investment when three possible scenarios are conceived, a base case and two extreme alternatives: optimistic and pessimistic. Decision-makers can be seen as being either owners of a forest or investors. For each of these roles the possibility degrees of the scenarios may be represented by means of fuzzy numbers, representing ambiguous net present values (NPV). Real option values (ROV) are then computed based on them. The application to a potential forestry project in Argentina shows that, while in the case of an owner of forestry project the expected benefits are both positive under NPV and ROV, an investor would discard the project if she assumes equal weights for the scenarios in a traditional analysis but would accept it under the fuzzy approach.Fil: Milanesi, Gastón. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Ciencias de la Administración; ArgentinaFil: Broz, Diego Ricardo. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Ciencias de la Administración; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Tohmé, Fernando Abel. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Rossit, Daniel Alejandro. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Ingeniería; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFundació per a l'Estudi de la Gestió en la Incertesa2014-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/29862Milanesi, Gastón; Broz, Diego Ricardo; Tohmé, Fernando Abel; Rossit, Daniel Alejandro; Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM); Fundació per a l'Estudi de la Gestió en la Incertesa; Fuzzy Economic Review; 19; 1; 5-2014; 33-441136-05932445-4192CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.sigef.net/2014-09-26-07-16-23/summaries-and-abstracts/item/543-strategic-analysis-of-forest-investments-using-real-option-the-fuzzy-pay-off-model-fpominfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:16:45Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/29862instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:16:46.194CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM)
title Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM)
spellingShingle Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM)
Milanesi, Gastón
Fuzzy Number
Npv (Net Present Value)
Rov (Real Option Value)
title_short Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM)
title_full Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM)
title_fullStr Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM)
title_full_unstemmed Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM)
title_sort Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Milanesi, Gastón
Broz, Diego Ricardo
Tohmé, Fernando Abel
Rossit, Daniel Alejandro
author Milanesi, Gastón
author_facet Milanesi, Gastón
Broz, Diego Ricardo
Tohmé, Fernando Abel
Rossit, Daniel Alejandro
author_role author
author2 Broz, Diego Ricardo
Tohmé, Fernando Abel
Rossit, Daniel Alejandro
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Fuzzy Number
Npv (Net Present Value)
Rov (Real Option Value)
topic Fuzzy Number
Npv (Net Present Value)
Rov (Real Option Value)
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.2
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This paper introduces a fuzzy forestry investment decision-making tool based. It will be applied to choose optimal levels of investment when three possible scenarios are conceived, a base case and two extreme alternatives: optimistic and pessimistic. Decision-makers can be seen as being either owners of a forest or investors. For each of these roles the possibility degrees of the scenarios may be represented by means of fuzzy numbers, representing ambiguous net present values (NPV). Real option values (ROV) are then computed based on them. The application to a potential forestry project in Argentina shows that, while in the case of an owner of forestry project the expected benefits are both positive under NPV and ROV, an investor would discard the project if she assumes equal weights for the scenarios in a traditional analysis but would accept it under the fuzzy approach.
Fil: Milanesi, Gastón. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Ciencias de la Administración; Argentina
Fil: Broz, Diego Ricardo. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Ciencias de la Administración; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Tohmé, Fernando Abel. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Rossit, Daniel Alejandro. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Ingeniería; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
description This paper introduces a fuzzy forestry investment decision-making tool based. It will be applied to choose optimal levels of investment when three possible scenarios are conceived, a base case and two extreme alternatives: optimistic and pessimistic. Decision-makers can be seen as being either owners of a forest or investors. For each of these roles the possibility degrees of the scenarios may be represented by means of fuzzy numbers, representing ambiguous net present values (NPV). Real option values (ROV) are then computed based on them. The application to a potential forestry project in Argentina shows that, while in the case of an owner of forestry project the expected benefits are both positive under NPV and ROV, an investor would discard the project if she assumes equal weights for the scenarios in a traditional analysis but would accept it under the fuzzy approach.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/29862
Milanesi, Gastón; Broz, Diego Ricardo; Tohmé, Fernando Abel; Rossit, Daniel Alejandro; Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM); Fundació per a l'Estudi de la Gestió en la Incertesa; Fuzzy Economic Review; 19; 1; 5-2014; 33-44
1136-0593
2445-4192
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/29862
identifier_str_mv Milanesi, Gastón; Broz, Diego Ricardo; Tohmé, Fernando Abel; Rossit, Daniel Alejandro; Strategic analysis of forest investments using real option the fuzzy pay-off model (FPOM); Fundació per a l'Estudi de la Gestió en la Incertesa; Fuzzy Economic Review; 19; 1; 5-2014; 33-44
1136-0593
2445-4192
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.sigef.net/2014-09-26-07-16-23/summaries-and-abstracts/item/543-strategic-analysis-of-forest-investments-using-real-option-the-fuzzy-pay-off-model-fpom
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Fundació per a l'Estudi de la Gestió en la Incertesa
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Fundació per a l'Estudi de la Gestió en la Incertesa
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 12.982451

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