Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action

Autores
Findell, Kirsten L.; Sutton, Rowan; Caltabiano, Nico; Brookshaw, Anca; Heimbach, Patrick; Kimoto, Masahide; Osprey, Scott; Smith, Doug; Risbey, James S.; Wang, Zhuo; Cheng, Lijing; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar; Donat, Markus G.; Ek, Michael; Lee, June Yi; Minobe, Shoshiro; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Vitart, Frederic; Wang, Lin
Año de publicación
2023
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world "that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind."This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization.
Fil: Findell, Kirsten L.. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,; Estados Unidos
Fil: Sutton, Rowan. National Centre For Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido. University of Reading; Reino Unido
Fil: Caltabiano, Nico. World Meteorological Organization; Suiza
Fil: Brookshaw, Anca. European Centre For Medium-range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido
Fil: Heimbach, Patrick. University of Texas at Austin; Estados Unidos
Fil: Kimoto, Masahide. National Institute For Environmental Studies; Japón
Fil: Osprey, Scott. University of Oxford; Reino Unido. National Centre for Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido
Fil: Smith, Doug. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Risbey, James S.. Oceans & Atmosphere, Commonwealth Scientific And Indust; Australia
Fil: Wang, Zhuo. University of Illinois; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cheng, Lijing. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Fil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Donat, Markus G.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España
Fil: Ek, Michael. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos
Fil: Lee, June Yi. Pusan National University; Corea del Sur. Institute for Basic Science; Corea del Sur
Fil: Minobe, Shoshiro. Hokkaido University; Japón
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Vitart, Frederic. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido
Fil: Wang, Lin. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Materia
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATE PREDICTION
CLIMATE SERVICES
DECADAL VARIABILITY
ENSEMBLES
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/215346

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spelling Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to ActionFindell, Kirsten L.Sutton, RowanCaltabiano, NicoBrookshaw, AncaHeimbach, PatrickKimoto, MasahideOsprey, ScottSmith, DougRisbey, James S.Wang, ZhuoCheng, LijingDíaz, Leandro BaltasarDonat, Markus G.Ek, MichaelLee, June YiMinobe, ShoshiroRusticucci, Matilde MonicaVitart, FredericWang, LinCLIMATE MODELSCLIMATE PREDICTIONCLIMATE SERVICESDECADAL VARIABILITYENSEMBLEShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world "that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind."This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization.Fil: Findell, Kirsten L.. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,; Estados UnidosFil: Sutton, Rowan. National Centre For Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido. University of Reading; Reino UnidoFil: Caltabiano, Nico. World Meteorological Organization; SuizaFil: Brookshaw, Anca. European Centre For Medium-range Weather Forecasts; Reino UnidoFil: Heimbach, Patrick. University of Texas at Austin; Estados UnidosFil: Kimoto, Masahide. National Institute For Environmental Studies; JapónFil: Osprey, Scott. University of Oxford; Reino Unido. National Centre for Atmospheric Science; Reino UnidoFil: Smith, Doug. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino UnidoFil: Risbey, James S.. Oceans & Atmosphere, Commonwealth Scientific And Indust; AustraliaFil: Wang, Zhuo. University of Illinois; Estados UnidosFil: Cheng, Lijing. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Donat, Markus G.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; EspañaFil: Ek, Michael. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Lee, June Yi. Pusan National University; Corea del Sur. Institute for Basic Science; Corea del SurFil: Minobe, Shoshiro. Hokkaido University; JapónFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Vitart, Frederic. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino UnidoFil: Wang, Lin. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaAmer Meteorological Soc2023-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/215346Findell, Kirsten L.; Sutton, Rowan; Caltabiano, Nico; Brookshaw, Anca; Heimbach, Patrick; et al.; Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action; Amer Meteorological Soc; Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society; 104; 1; 1-2023; E325-E3390003-0007CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fbams$002f104$002f1$002fBAMS-D-21-0280.1.xml?t:ac=journals%24002fbams%24002f104%24002f1%24002fBAMS-D-21-0280.1.xmlinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0280.1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T15:36:44Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/215346instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 15:36:44.277CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action
title Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action
spellingShingle Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action
Findell, Kirsten L.
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATE PREDICTION
CLIMATE SERVICES
DECADAL VARIABILITY
ENSEMBLES
title_short Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action
title_full Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action
title_fullStr Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action
title_full_unstemmed Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action
title_sort Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Findell, Kirsten L.
Sutton, Rowan
Caltabiano, Nico
Brookshaw, Anca
Heimbach, Patrick
Kimoto, Masahide
Osprey, Scott
Smith, Doug
Risbey, James S.
Wang, Zhuo
Cheng, Lijing
Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
Donat, Markus G.
Ek, Michael
Lee, June Yi
Minobe, Shoshiro
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
Vitart, Frederic
Wang, Lin
author Findell, Kirsten L.
author_facet Findell, Kirsten L.
Sutton, Rowan
Caltabiano, Nico
Brookshaw, Anca
Heimbach, Patrick
Kimoto, Masahide
Osprey, Scott
Smith, Doug
Risbey, James S.
Wang, Zhuo
Cheng, Lijing
Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
Donat, Markus G.
Ek, Michael
Lee, June Yi
Minobe, Shoshiro
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
Vitart, Frederic
Wang, Lin
author_role author
author2 Sutton, Rowan
Caltabiano, Nico
Brookshaw, Anca
Heimbach, Patrick
Kimoto, Masahide
Osprey, Scott
Smith, Doug
Risbey, James S.
Wang, Zhuo
Cheng, Lijing
Díaz, Leandro Baltasar
Donat, Markus G.
Ek, Michael
Lee, June Yi
Minobe, Shoshiro
Rusticucci, Matilde Monica
Vitart, Frederic
Wang, Lin
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATE PREDICTION
CLIMATE SERVICES
DECADAL VARIABILITY
ENSEMBLES
topic CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATE PREDICTION
CLIMATE SERVICES
DECADAL VARIABILITY
ENSEMBLES
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world "that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind."This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization.
Fil: Findell, Kirsten L.. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,; Estados Unidos
Fil: Sutton, Rowan. National Centre For Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido. University of Reading; Reino Unido
Fil: Caltabiano, Nico. World Meteorological Organization; Suiza
Fil: Brookshaw, Anca. European Centre For Medium-range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido
Fil: Heimbach, Patrick. University of Texas at Austin; Estados Unidos
Fil: Kimoto, Masahide. National Institute For Environmental Studies; Japón
Fil: Osprey, Scott. University of Oxford; Reino Unido. National Centre for Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido
Fil: Smith, Doug. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Risbey, James S.. Oceans & Atmosphere, Commonwealth Scientific And Indust; Australia
Fil: Wang, Zhuo. University of Illinois; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cheng, Lijing. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Fil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Donat, Markus G.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España
Fil: Ek, Michael. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos
Fil: Lee, June Yi. Pusan National University; Corea del Sur. Institute for Basic Science; Corea del Sur
Fil: Minobe, Shoshiro. Hokkaido University; Japón
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Vitart, Frederic. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido
Fil: Wang, Lin. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
description The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world "that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind."This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/215346
Findell, Kirsten L.; Sutton, Rowan; Caltabiano, Nico; Brookshaw, Anca; Heimbach, Patrick; et al.; Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action; Amer Meteorological Soc; Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society; 104; 1; 1-2023; E325-E339
0003-0007
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/215346
identifier_str_mv Findell, Kirsten L.; Sutton, Rowan; Caltabiano, Nico; Brookshaw, Anca; Heimbach, Patrick; et al.; Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action; Amer Meteorological Soc; Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society; 104; 1; 1-2023; E325-E339
0003-0007
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0280.1
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rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Amer Meteorological Soc
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Amer Meteorological Soc
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repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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