Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action
- Autores
- Findell, Kirsten L.; Sutton, Rowan; Caltabiano, Nico; Brookshaw, Anca; Heimbach, Patrick; Kimoto, Masahide; Osprey, Scott; Smith, Doug; Risbey, James S.; Wang, Zhuo; Cheng, Lijing; Díaz, Leandro Baltasar; Donat, Markus G.; Ek, Michael; Lee, June Yi; Minobe, Shoshiro; Rusticucci, Matilde Monica; Vitart, Frederic; Wang, Lin
- Año de publicación
- 2023
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world "that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind."This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization.
Fil: Findell, Kirsten L.. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,; Estados Unidos
Fil: Sutton, Rowan. National Centre For Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido. University of Reading; Reino Unido
Fil: Caltabiano, Nico. World Meteorological Organization; Suiza
Fil: Brookshaw, Anca. European Centre For Medium-range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido
Fil: Heimbach, Patrick. University of Texas at Austin; Estados Unidos
Fil: Kimoto, Masahide. National Institute For Environmental Studies; Japón
Fil: Osprey, Scott. University of Oxford; Reino Unido. National Centre for Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido
Fil: Smith, Doug. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Risbey, James S.. Oceans & Atmosphere, Commonwealth Scientific And Indust; Australia
Fil: Wang, Zhuo. University of Illinois; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cheng, Lijing. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Fil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina
Fil: Donat, Markus G.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España
Fil: Ek, Michael. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos
Fil: Lee, June Yi. Pusan National University; Corea del Sur. Institute for Basic Science; Corea del Sur
Fil: Minobe, Shoshiro. Hokkaido University; Japón
Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Vitart, Frederic. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido
Fil: Wang, Lin. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China - Materia
-
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATE PREDICTION
CLIMATE SERVICES
DECADAL VARIABILITY
ENSEMBLES - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/215346
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Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to ActionFindell, Kirsten L.Sutton, RowanCaltabiano, NicoBrookshaw, AncaHeimbach, PatrickKimoto, MasahideOsprey, ScottSmith, DougRisbey, James S.Wang, ZhuoCheng, LijingDíaz, Leandro BaltasarDonat, Markus G.Ek, MichaelLee, June YiMinobe, ShoshiroRusticucci, Matilde MonicaVitart, FredericWang, LinCLIMATE MODELSCLIMATE PREDICTIONCLIMATE SERVICESDECADAL VARIABILITYENSEMBLEShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world "that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind."This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization.Fil: Findell, Kirsten L.. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,; Estados UnidosFil: Sutton, Rowan. National Centre For Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido. University of Reading; Reino UnidoFil: Caltabiano, Nico. World Meteorological Organization; SuizaFil: Brookshaw, Anca. European Centre For Medium-range Weather Forecasts; Reino UnidoFil: Heimbach, Patrick. University of Texas at Austin; Estados UnidosFil: Kimoto, Masahide. National Institute For Environmental Studies; JapónFil: Osprey, Scott. University of Oxford; Reino Unido. National Centre for Atmospheric Science; Reino UnidoFil: Smith, Doug. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino UnidoFil: Risbey, James S.. Oceans & Atmosphere, Commonwealth Scientific And Indust; AustraliaFil: Wang, Zhuo. University of Illinois; Estados UnidosFil: Cheng, Lijing. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Donat, Markus G.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; EspañaFil: Ek, Michael. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Lee, June Yi. Pusan National University; Corea del Sur. Institute for Basic Science; Corea del SurFil: Minobe, Shoshiro. Hokkaido University; JapónFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Vitart, Frederic. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino UnidoFil: Wang, Lin. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaAmer Meteorological Soc2023-01info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/215346Findell, Kirsten L.; Sutton, Rowan; Caltabiano, Nico; Brookshaw, Anca; Heimbach, Patrick; et al.; Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action; Amer Meteorological Soc; Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society; 104; 1; 1-2023; E325-E3390003-0007CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fbams$002f104$002f1$002fBAMS-D-21-0280.1.xml?t:ac=journals%24002fbams%24002f104%24002f1%24002fBAMS-D-21-0280.1.xmlinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0280.1info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-15T15:36:44Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/215346instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-15 15:36:44.277CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action |
title |
Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action |
spellingShingle |
Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action Findell, Kirsten L. CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE PREDICTION CLIMATE SERVICES DECADAL VARIABILITY ENSEMBLES |
title_short |
Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action |
title_full |
Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action |
title_fullStr |
Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action |
title_full_unstemmed |
Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action |
title_sort |
Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Findell, Kirsten L. Sutton, Rowan Caltabiano, Nico Brookshaw, Anca Heimbach, Patrick Kimoto, Masahide Osprey, Scott Smith, Doug Risbey, James S. Wang, Zhuo Cheng, Lijing Díaz, Leandro Baltasar Donat, Markus G. Ek, Michael Lee, June Yi Minobe, Shoshiro Rusticucci, Matilde Monica Vitart, Frederic Wang, Lin |
author |
Findell, Kirsten L. |
author_facet |
Findell, Kirsten L. Sutton, Rowan Caltabiano, Nico Brookshaw, Anca Heimbach, Patrick Kimoto, Masahide Osprey, Scott Smith, Doug Risbey, James S. Wang, Zhuo Cheng, Lijing Díaz, Leandro Baltasar Donat, Markus G. Ek, Michael Lee, June Yi Minobe, Shoshiro Rusticucci, Matilde Monica Vitart, Frederic Wang, Lin |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Sutton, Rowan Caltabiano, Nico Brookshaw, Anca Heimbach, Patrick Kimoto, Masahide Osprey, Scott Smith, Doug Risbey, James S. Wang, Zhuo Cheng, Lijing Díaz, Leandro Baltasar Donat, Markus G. Ek, Michael Lee, June Yi Minobe, Shoshiro Rusticucci, Matilde Monica Vitart, Frederic Wang, Lin |
author2_role |
author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE PREDICTION CLIMATE SERVICES DECADAL VARIABILITY ENSEMBLES |
topic |
CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE PREDICTION CLIMATE SERVICES DECADAL VARIABILITY ENSEMBLES |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world "that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind."This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization. Fil: Findell, Kirsten L.. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,; Estados Unidos Fil: Sutton, Rowan. National Centre For Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido. University of Reading; Reino Unido Fil: Caltabiano, Nico. World Meteorological Organization; Suiza Fil: Brookshaw, Anca. European Centre For Medium-range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido Fil: Heimbach, Patrick. University of Texas at Austin; Estados Unidos Fil: Kimoto, Masahide. National Institute For Environmental Studies; Japón Fil: Osprey, Scott. University of Oxford; Reino Unido. National Centre for Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido Fil: Smith, Doug. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino Unido Fil: Risbey, James S.. Oceans & Atmosphere, Commonwealth Scientific And Indust; Australia Fil: Wang, Zhuo. University of Illinois; Estados Unidos Fil: Cheng, Lijing. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China Fil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina Fil: Donat, Markus G.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; España Fil: Ek, Michael. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos Fil: Lee, June Yi. Pusan National University; Corea del Sur. Institute for Basic Science; Corea del Sur Fil: Minobe, Shoshiro. Hokkaido University; Japón Fil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina Fil: Vitart, Frederic. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino Unido Fil: Wang, Lin. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China |
description |
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world "that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind."This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization. |
publishDate |
2023 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2023-01 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/215346 Findell, Kirsten L.; Sutton, Rowan; Caltabiano, Nico; Brookshaw, Anca; Heimbach, Patrick; et al.; Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action; Amer Meteorological Soc; Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society; 104; 1; 1-2023; E325-E339 0003-0007 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/215346 |
identifier_str_mv |
Findell, Kirsten L.; Sutton, Rowan; Caltabiano, Nico; Brookshaw, Anca; Heimbach, Patrick; et al.; Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action; Amer Meteorological Soc; Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society; 104; 1; 1-2023; E325-E339 0003-0007 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://journals.ametsoc.org/configurable/content/journals$002fbams$002f104$002f1$002fBAMS-D-21-0280.1.xml?t:ac=journals%24002fbams%24002f104%24002f1%24002fBAMS-D-21-0280.1.xml info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0280.1 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Amer Meteorological Soc |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Amer Meteorological Soc |
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reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
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Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1846083489723580416 |
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13.22299 |