Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data

Autores
Scheer, Jurgen; Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo
Año de publicación
2013
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
We use our mesopause region temperature data from El Leoncito (31.8°S, 69.3°W) to illustrate how the increased length of the dataset alone does not simplify trend analysis. This is because the adequate interpretation of trend results does not only depend on the statistical characteristics of the data time-series. A longer dataset may make unexpected features stand out, which require an explanation before definite conclusions on long-term trends can be drawn. While the rotational temperatures derived at El Leoncito from the OH(6-2) airglow band appear rather homogeneous at first sight, the O2 temperatures measured with the same instrument and optical filter exhibit features strongly reminiscent of Simpson´s classical statistical paradox, in that straight-forward trends derived from parts show signs opposite to those of the complete data set. The resolution of this paradox requires more efforts to diagnose and remove the impact of instrumental artifacts besides taking any other geophysical variation that does not directly contribute to long-term change into account. Intercomparison with other instruments is certainly useful, but may warrant the elimination of new uncertainties discovered in the act.
Fil: Scheer, Jurgen. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; Argentina
Fil: Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; Argentina
Materia
EL LEONCITO
MESOPAUSE REGION
TEMPERATURE TRENDS
DATA
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17055
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17055
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow dataScheer, JurgenReisin, Esteban RodolfoEL LEONCITOMESOPAUSE REGIONTEMPERATURE TRENDSDATAhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1We use our mesopause region temperature data from El Leoncito (31.8°S, 69.3°W) to illustrate how the increased length of the dataset alone does not simplify trend analysis. This is because the adequate interpretation of trend results does not only depend on the statistical characteristics of the data time-series. A longer dataset may make unexpected features stand out, which require an explanation before definite conclusions on long-term trends can be drawn. While the rotational temperatures derived at El Leoncito from the OH(6-2) airglow band appear rather homogeneous at first sight, the O2 temperatures measured with the same instrument and optical filter exhibit features strongly reminiscent of Simpson´s classical statistical paradox, in that straight-forward trends derived from parts show signs opposite to those of the complete data set. The resolution of this paradox requires more efforts to diagnose and remove the impact of instrumental artifacts besides taking any other geophysical variation that does not directly contribute to long-term change into account. Intercomparison with other instruments is certainly useful, but may warrant the elimination of new uncertainties discovered in the act.Fil: Scheer, Jurgen. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; ArgentinaFil: Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; ArgentinaAmerican Geophysical Union2013-07info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/17055Scheer, Jurgen; Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo; Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data; American Geophysical Union; Journal Of Geophysical Research; 118; 8; 7-2013; 5223-52290148-0227enghttps://ri.conicet.gov.ar/handle/11336/240593info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgra.50461/fullinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/jgra.50461info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:45:44Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/17055instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:45:44.367CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data
title Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data
spellingShingle Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data
Scheer, Jurgen
EL LEONCITO
MESOPAUSE REGION
TEMPERATURE TRENDS
DATA
title_short Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data
title_full Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data
title_fullStr Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data
title_full_unstemmed Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data
title_sort Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Scheer, Jurgen
Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo
author Scheer, Jurgen
author_facet Scheer, Jurgen
Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo
author_role author
author2 Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv EL LEONCITO
MESOPAUSE REGION
TEMPERATURE TRENDS
DATA
topic EL LEONCITO
MESOPAUSE REGION
TEMPERATURE TRENDS
DATA
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv We use our mesopause region temperature data from El Leoncito (31.8°S, 69.3°W) to illustrate how the increased length of the dataset alone does not simplify trend analysis. This is because the adequate interpretation of trend results does not only depend on the statistical characteristics of the data time-series. A longer dataset may make unexpected features stand out, which require an explanation before definite conclusions on long-term trends can be drawn. While the rotational temperatures derived at El Leoncito from the OH(6-2) airglow band appear rather homogeneous at first sight, the O2 temperatures measured with the same instrument and optical filter exhibit features strongly reminiscent of Simpson´s classical statistical paradox, in that straight-forward trends derived from parts show signs opposite to those of the complete data set. The resolution of this paradox requires more efforts to diagnose and remove the impact of instrumental artifacts besides taking any other geophysical variation that does not directly contribute to long-term change into account. Intercomparison with other instruments is certainly useful, but may warrant the elimination of new uncertainties discovered in the act.
Fil: Scheer, Jurgen. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; Argentina
Fil: Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciónes Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio. - Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio; Argentina
description We use our mesopause region temperature data from El Leoncito (31.8°S, 69.3°W) to illustrate how the increased length of the dataset alone does not simplify trend analysis. This is because the adequate interpretation of trend results does not only depend on the statistical characteristics of the data time-series. A longer dataset may make unexpected features stand out, which require an explanation before definite conclusions on long-term trends can be drawn. While the rotational temperatures derived at El Leoncito from the OH(6-2) airglow band appear rather homogeneous at first sight, the O2 temperatures measured with the same instrument and optical filter exhibit features strongly reminiscent of Simpson´s classical statistical paradox, in that straight-forward trends derived from parts show signs opposite to those of the complete data set. The resolution of this paradox requires more efforts to diagnose and remove the impact of instrumental artifacts besides taking any other geophysical variation that does not directly contribute to long-term change into account. Intercomparison with other instruments is certainly useful, but may warrant the elimination of new uncertainties discovered in the act.
publishDate 2013
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2013-07
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17055
Scheer, Jurgen; Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo; Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data; American Geophysical Union; Journal Of Geophysical Research; 118; 8; 7-2013; 5223-5229
0148-0227
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/17055
identifier_str_mv Scheer, Jurgen; Reisin, Esteban Rodolfo; Simpson's paradox in trend analysis: An example from El Leoncito airglow data; American Geophysical Union; Journal Of Geophysical Research; 118; 8; 7-2013; 5223-5229
0148-0227
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://ri.conicet.gov.ar/handle/11336/240593
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgra.50461/full
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/jgra.50461
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Geophysical Union
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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