Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics
- Autores
- Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás; Goirán, Silvana Beatriz; Forconesi, Leonardo; Aranibar, Julieta Nelida; Garcia Garino, Carlos Gabriel; Bringa, Eduardo Marcial
- Año de publicación
- 2016
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- We developed an open source Monte Carlo based model to simulate Settlement Dynamics in Drylands (SeDD). The model assigns partial probabilities to each pixel within a grid region, based on several factors that can influence the establishment and subsistence of settlements: groundwater depth, vegetation type, proximity to rivers, paved roads, old river beds, and existing settlements. Partial probabilities are considered to be independent from each other, and therefore multiplied to calculate an overall probability for each pixel. Settlements are assigned by maximum probabilities or randomly, according to pre-established threshold probability values. We also modeled the gradual reduction of vegetation caused by a new settlement in neighboring pixels, decreasing the probabilities related to vegetation type. The final distribution of settlements is given by an average over multiple Monte Carlo simulations. The model is computationally efficient and could be used to rapidly explore different scenarios of settlement dynamics and vegetation degradation in arid environments, and other environmental factors that can be added to the framework without performing changes in the source code.
Fil: Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Universitario para las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones; Argentina
Fil: Goirán, Silvana Beatriz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina
Fil: Forconesi, Leonardo. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina
Fil: Aranibar, Julieta Nelida. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina
Fil: Garcia Garino, Carlos Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Universitario para las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones; Argentina
Fil: Bringa, Eduardo Marcial. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina - Materia
-
Monte Carlo Simulations
Performance Analysis
Settlement Dynamics
Shared Memory
Spatial Distribution - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59299
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Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamicsMillán, Emmanuel NicolásGoirán, Silvana BeatrizForconesi, LeonardoAranibar, Julieta NelidaGarcia Garino, Carlos GabrielBringa, Eduardo MarcialMonte Carlo SimulationsPerformance AnalysisSettlement DynamicsShared MemorySpatial Distributionhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1We developed an open source Monte Carlo based model to simulate Settlement Dynamics in Drylands (SeDD). The model assigns partial probabilities to each pixel within a grid region, based on several factors that can influence the establishment and subsistence of settlements: groundwater depth, vegetation type, proximity to rivers, paved roads, old river beds, and existing settlements. Partial probabilities are considered to be independent from each other, and therefore multiplied to calculate an overall probability for each pixel. Settlements are assigned by maximum probabilities or randomly, according to pre-established threshold probability values. We also modeled the gradual reduction of vegetation caused by a new settlement in neighboring pixels, decreasing the probabilities related to vegetation type. The final distribution of settlements is given by an average over multiple Monte Carlo simulations. The model is computationally efficient and could be used to rapidly explore different scenarios of settlement dynamics and vegetation degradation in arid environments, and other environmental factors that can be added to the framework without performing changes in the source code.Fil: Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Universitario para las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones; ArgentinaFil: Goirán, Silvana Beatriz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Forconesi, Leonardo. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Aranibar, Julieta Nelida. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; ArgentinaFil: Garcia Garino, Carlos Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Universitario para las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones; ArgentinaFil: Bringa, Eduardo Marcial. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaElsevier Science2016-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/59299Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás; Goirán, Silvana Beatriz; Forconesi, Leonardo; Aranibar, Julieta Nelida; Garcia Garino, Carlos Gabriel; et al.; Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics; Elsevier Science; Ecological Informatics; 36; 11-2016; 135-1441574-9541CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2016.11.002info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954116301935info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:47:28Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/59299instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:47:28.895CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics |
title |
Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics |
spellingShingle |
Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás Monte Carlo Simulations Performance Analysis Settlement Dynamics Shared Memory Spatial Distribution |
title_short |
Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics |
title_full |
Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics |
title_fullStr |
Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics |
title_sort |
Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás Goirán, Silvana Beatriz Forconesi, Leonardo Aranibar, Julieta Nelida Garcia Garino, Carlos Gabriel Bringa, Eduardo Marcial |
author |
Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás |
author_facet |
Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás Goirán, Silvana Beatriz Forconesi, Leonardo Aranibar, Julieta Nelida Garcia Garino, Carlos Gabriel Bringa, Eduardo Marcial |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Goirán, Silvana Beatriz Forconesi, Leonardo Aranibar, Julieta Nelida Garcia Garino, Carlos Gabriel Bringa, Eduardo Marcial |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Monte Carlo Simulations Performance Analysis Settlement Dynamics Shared Memory Spatial Distribution |
topic |
Monte Carlo Simulations Performance Analysis Settlement Dynamics Shared Memory Spatial Distribution |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
We developed an open source Monte Carlo based model to simulate Settlement Dynamics in Drylands (SeDD). The model assigns partial probabilities to each pixel within a grid region, based on several factors that can influence the establishment and subsistence of settlements: groundwater depth, vegetation type, proximity to rivers, paved roads, old river beds, and existing settlements. Partial probabilities are considered to be independent from each other, and therefore multiplied to calculate an overall probability for each pixel. Settlements are assigned by maximum probabilities or randomly, according to pre-established threshold probability values. We also modeled the gradual reduction of vegetation caused by a new settlement in neighboring pixels, decreasing the probabilities related to vegetation type. The final distribution of settlements is given by an average over multiple Monte Carlo simulations. The model is computationally efficient and could be used to rapidly explore different scenarios of settlement dynamics and vegetation degradation in arid environments, and other environmental factors that can be added to the framework without performing changes in the source code. Fil: Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Universitario para las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones; Argentina Fil: Goirán, Silvana Beatriz. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina Fil: Forconesi, Leonardo. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina Fil: Aranibar, Julieta Nelida. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina Fil: Garcia Garino, Carlos Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Universitario para las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones; Argentina Fil: Bringa, Eduardo Marcial. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina |
description |
We developed an open source Monte Carlo based model to simulate Settlement Dynamics in Drylands (SeDD). The model assigns partial probabilities to each pixel within a grid region, based on several factors that can influence the establishment and subsistence of settlements: groundwater depth, vegetation type, proximity to rivers, paved roads, old river beds, and existing settlements. Partial probabilities are considered to be independent from each other, and therefore multiplied to calculate an overall probability for each pixel. Settlements are assigned by maximum probabilities or randomly, according to pre-established threshold probability values. We also modeled the gradual reduction of vegetation caused by a new settlement in neighboring pixels, decreasing the probabilities related to vegetation type. The final distribution of settlements is given by an average over multiple Monte Carlo simulations. The model is computationally efficient and could be used to rapidly explore different scenarios of settlement dynamics and vegetation degradation in arid environments, and other environmental factors that can be added to the framework without performing changes in the source code. |
publishDate |
2016 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016-11 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59299 Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás; Goirán, Silvana Beatriz; Forconesi, Leonardo; Aranibar, Julieta Nelida; Garcia Garino, Carlos Gabriel; et al.; Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics; Elsevier Science; Ecological Informatics; 36; 11-2016; 135-144 1574-9541 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/59299 |
identifier_str_mv |
Millán, Emmanuel Nicolás; Goirán, Silvana Beatriz; Forconesi, Leonardo; Aranibar, Julieta Nelida; Garcia Garino, Carlos Gabriel; et al.; Monte Carlo model framework to simulate settlement dynamics; Elsevier Science; Ecological Informatics; 36; 11-2016; 135-144 1574-9541 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2016.11.002 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954116301935 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier Science |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier Science |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1844613479138328576 |
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13.070432 |