The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: Evaluation of precipitation

• Autores: Ban, Nikolina; Caillaud, Cécile; Coppola, Erika; Pichelli, Emanuela; Sobolowski, Stefan; Adinolfi, Marianna; Ahrens, Bodo; Alias, Antoinette; Anders, Ivonne; Bastin, Sophie; Belušić, Danijel; Berthou, Ségolène; Brisson, Erwan; Cardoso, Rita M.; Chan, Steven C.; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Fernández, Jesús; Fita Borrell, Lluís; Frisius, Thomas; Gaparac, Goran; Giorgi, Filippo; Goergen, Klaus; Haugen, Jan Erik; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Kartsios, Stergios; Katragkou, Eleni; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Keuler, Klaus; Lavin Gullon, Alvaro; Lenderink, Geert
• Año de publicación: 2021
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: KILOMETER-SCALE RESOLUTION; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS; PRECIPITATION; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40% at 12 km to ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales.
Fil: Ban, Nikolina. Universidad de Innsbruck; Austria
Fil: Caillaud, Cécile. Université de Toulouse; Francia
Fil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia. The Abdus Salam; Italia
Fil: Pichelli, Emanuela. The Abdus Salam; Italia. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia
Fil: Sobolowski, Stefan. Norwegian Research Centre; Noruega
Fil: Adinolfi, Marianna. Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui cambiamenti climatici; Italia
Fil: Ahrens, Bodo. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania
Fil: Alias, Antoinette. Université de Toulouse; Francia
Fil: Anders, Ivonne. German Climate Computing Center; Alemania
Fil: Bastin, Sophie. Universite Paris-Saclay;
Fil: Belušić, Danijel. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; Suiza
Fil: Berthou, Ségolène. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Brisson, Erwan. Université de Toulouse; Francia
Fil: Cardoso, Rita M.. Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Portugal
Fil: Chan, Steven C.. University of Newcastle; Reino Unido
Fil: Christensen, Ole Bøssing. Danish Meteorological Institute; Dinamarca
Fil: Fernández, Jesús. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Fita Borrell, Lluís. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina
Fil: Frisius, Thomas. Helmholtz Gemeinschaft; Alemania
Fil: Gaparac, Goran. Croatia Control Ltd.; Croacia
Fil: Giorgi, Filippo. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia. The Abdus Salam; Italia
Fil: Goergen, Klaus. Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems; Alemania. Helmholtz Gemeinschaft. Forschungszentrum Jülich; Alemania
Fil: Haugen, Jan Erik. Norwegian Meteorological Institute; Noruega
Fil: Hodnebrog, Øivind. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo; Noruega
Fil: Kartsios, Stergios. Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki; Grecia
Fil: Katragkou, Eleni. Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki; Grecia
Fil: Kendon, Elizabeth J.. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino Unido
Fil: Keuler, Klaus. Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg; Alemania
Fil: Lavin Gullon, Alvaro. Universidad de Cantabria; España
Fil: Lenderink, Geert. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; Países Bajos