Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters

Autores
Cúnico, María Laura; Flores, Julio Rolando; Vecchietti, Aldo
Año de publicación
2017
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Investments in the energy sector on the medium/long term are risky due to the uncertainties having in this sector: price volatility, unclear demands and indeterminate fossil reserve volumes, among others. Decision making tools plays an important role in order to attenuate the effect of uncertainties in the investment by including this aspect in the models. In this sense, mathematical programming models provide analytical tools to improve the decision making process. This paper presents a multi-period mathematical model for planning investments in the energy sector in a medium time horizon. The model considers several imprecise information of the energy market: uncertainty in the price of fossil resources, the trend in the growing demand and the variation in the availability of fossil reserves. The main objective of this work is to formulate a decision making model in planning investments in the energy sector which can provide a unique strategic plan, robust enough to cover pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of the uncertainties. In particular, a fuzzy approach is used to formulate the problem, and is combined with sets of possibilistic techniques to transform the problem into a form that can be solved. In order to show the capabilities of the model, it is applied and solved for the Argentina's energy sector.
Fil: Cúnico, María Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño; Argentina
Fil: Flores, Julio Rolando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño; Argentina
Fil: Vecchietti, Aldo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño; Argentina
Materia
Energy
Fuzzy Sets
Investment
Optimization Model
Uncertainties
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/39041
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/39041
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parametersCúnico, María LauraFlores, Julio RolandoVecchietti, AldoEnergyFuzzy SetsInvestmentOptimization ModelUncertaintiesInvestments in the energy sector on the medium/long term are risky due to the uncertainties having in this sector: price volatility, unclear demands and indeterminate fossil reserve volumes, among others. Decision making tools plays an important role in order to attenuate the effect of uncertainties in the investment by including this aspect in the models. In this sense, mathematical programming models provide analytical tools to improve the decision making process. This paper presents a multi-period mathematical model for planning investments in the energy sector in a medium time horizon. The model considers several imprecise information of the energy market: uncertainty in the price of fossil resources, the trend in the growing demand and the variation in the availability of fossil reserves. The main objective of this work is to formulate a decision making model in planning investments in the energy sector which can provide a unique strategic plan, robust enough to cover pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of the uncertainties. In particular, a fuzzy approach is used to formulate the problem, and is combined with sets of possibilistic techniques to transform the problem into a form that can be solved. In order to show the capabilities of the model, it is applied and solved for the Argentina's energy sector.Fil: Cúnico, María Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño; ArgentinaFil: Flores, Julio Rolando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño; ArgentinaFil: Vecchietti, Aldo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño; ArgentinaPergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd2017-11info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/39041Cúnico, María Laura; Flores, Julio Rolando; Vecchietti, Aldo; Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters; Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd; Energy; 138; 11-2017; 831-8450360-5442CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.103info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217312811info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:43:55Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/39041instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:43:55.915CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters
title Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters
spellingShingle Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters
Cúnico, María Laura
Energy
Fuzzy Sets
Investment
Optimization Model
Uncertainties
title_short Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters
title_full Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters
title_fullStr Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters
title_full_unstemmed Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters
title_sort Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Cúnico, María Laura
Flores, Julio Rolando
Vecchietti, Aldo
author Cúnico, María Laura
author_facet Cúnico, María Laura
Flores, Julio Rolando
Vecchietti, Aldo
author_role author
author2 Flores, Julio Rolando
Vecchietti, Aldo
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Energy
Fuzzy Sets
Investment
Optimization Model
Uncertainties
topic Energy
Fuzzy Sets
Investment
Optimization Model
Uncertainties
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Investments in the energy sector on the medium/long term are risky due to the uncertainties having in this sector: price volatility, unclear demands and indeterminate fossil reserve volumes, among others. Decision making tools plays an important role in order to attenuate the effect of uncertainties in the investment by including this aspect in the models. In this sense, mathematical programming models provide analytical tools to improve the decision making process. This paper presents a multi-period mathematical model for planning investments in the energy sector in a medium time horizon. The model considers several imprecise information of the energy market: uncertainty in the price of fossil resources, the trend in the growing demand and the variation in the availability of fossil reserves. The main objective of this work is to formulate a decision making model in planning investments in the energy sector which can provide a unique strategic plan, robust enough to cover pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of the uncertainties. In particular, a fuzzy approach is used to formulate the problem, and is combined with sets of possibilistic techniques to transform the problem into a form that can be solved. In order to show the capabilities of the model, it is applied and solved for the Argentina's energy sector.
Fil: Cúnico, María Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño; Argentina
Fil: Flores, Julio Rolando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño; Argentina
Fil: Vecchietti, Aldo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Santa Fe. Instituto de Desarrollo y Diseño; Argentina
description Investments in the energy sector on the medium/long term are risky due to the uncertainties having in this sector: price volatility, unclear demands and indeterminate fossil reserve volumes, among others. Decision making tools plays an important role in order to attenuate the effect of uncertainties in the investment by including this aspect in the models. In this sense, mathematical programming models provide analytical tools to improve the decision making process. This paper presents a multi-period mathematical model for planning investments in the energy sector in a medium time horizon. The model considers several imprecise information of the energy market: uncertainty in the price of fossil resources, the trend in the growing demand and the variation in the availability of fossil reserves. The main objective of this work is to formulate a decision making model in planning investments in the energy sector which can provide a unique strategic plan, robust enough to cover pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of the uncertainties. In particular, a fuzzy approach is used to formulate the problem, and is combined with sets of possibilistic techniques to transform the problem into a form that can be solved. In order to show the capabilities of the model, it is applied and solved for the Argentina's energy sector.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/39041
Cúnico, María Laura; Flores, Julio Rolando; Vecchietti, Aldo; Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters; Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd; Energy; 138; 11-2017; 831-845
0360-5442
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/39041
identifier_str_mv Cúnico, María Laura; Flores, Julio Rolando; Vecchietti, Aldo; Investment in the energy sector: An optimization model that contemplates several uncertain parameters; Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd; Energy; 138; 11-2017; 831-845
0360-5442
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.103
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217312811
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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