Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach

Autores
Giana, Fabián Eduardo; Onetto, Martín Alejandro; Pregliasco, Rodolfo Guillermo
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
In this work, the postmortem interval is estimated by means of Bayesian inference using rectal temperature data from a published database. First, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties in each of the model parameters is carried out in order to assess their relative influences on the postmortem interval uncertainty. Then, the method is applied to the whole database and proves to be more reliable than the well-established nomogram method. Moreover, the result of the Bayesian inference process is the full posterior probability distribution of the postmortem interval, which provides more information than a simple point estimate or a time interval. This distribution can be used to assign probabilities to specific time intervals that may arise in a criminal investigation. The application of this statistical analysis can be extended to any method of estimating the postmortem interval.
Fil: Giana, Fabián Eduardo. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del _rea de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones no Nucleares. Gerencia de Fisica (Cab). Seccion Fisica Forense; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Onetto, Martín Alejandro. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del _rea de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones no Nucleares. Gerencia de Fisica (Cab). Seccion Fisica Forense; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Pregliasco, Rodolfo Guillermo. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del _rea de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones no Nucleares. Gerencia de Fisica (Cab). Seccion Fisica Forense; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Materia
BAYESIAN INFERENCE
BODY COOLING
POSTMORTEM INTERVAL
UNCERTAINTY
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/126743
Acceder
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network_acronym_str CONICETDig
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approachGiana, Fabián EduardoOnetto, Martín AlejandroPregliasco, Rodolfo GuillermoBAYESIAN INFERENCEBODY COOLINGPOSTMORTEM INTERVALUNCERTAINTYhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1In this work, the postmortem interval is estimated by means of Bayesian inference using rectal temperature data from a published database. First, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties in each of the model parameters is carried out in order to assess their relative influences on the postmortem interval uncertainty. Then, the method is applied to the whole database and proves to be more reliable than the well-established nomogram method. Moreover, the result of the Bayesian inference process is the full posterior probability distribution of the postmortem interval, which provides more information than a simple point estimate or a time interval. This distribution can be used to assign probabilities to specific time intervals that may arise in a criminal investigation. The application of this statistical analysis can be extended to any method of estimating the postmortem interval.Fil: Giana, Fabián Eduardo. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del _rea de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones no Nucleares. Gerencia de Fisica (Cab). Seccion Fisica Forense; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaFil: Onetto, Martín Alejandro. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del _rea de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones no Nucleares. Gerencia de Fisica (Cab). Seccion Fisica Forense; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaFil: Pregliasco, Rodolfo Guillermo. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del _rea de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones no Nucleares. Gerencia de Fisica (Cab). Seccion Fisica Forense; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaElsevier Ireland2020-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/126743Giana, Fabián Eduardo; Onetto, Martín Alejandro; Pregliasco, Rodolfo Guillermo; Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach; Elsevier Ireland; Forensic Science International; 317; 110505; 12-2020; 1105050379-0738CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0379073820303674info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.forsciint.2020.110505info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:00:01Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/126743instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:00:01.973CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach
title Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach
spellingShingle Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach
Giana, Fabián Eduardo
BAYESIAN INFERENCE
BODY COOLING
POSTMORTEM INTERVAL
UNCERTAINTY
title_short Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach
title_full Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach
title_fullStr Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach
title_full_unstemmed Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach
title_sort Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Giana, Fabián Eduardo
Onetto, Martín Alejandro
Pregliasco, Rodolfo Guillermo
author Giana, Fabián Eduardo
author_facet Giana, Fabián Eduardo
Onetto, Martín Alejandro
Pregliasco, Rodolfo Guillermo
author_role author
author2 Onetto, Martín Alejandro
Pregliasco, Rodolfo Guillermo
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv BAYESIAN INFERENCE
BODY COOLING
POSTMORTEM INTERVAL
UNCERTAINTY
topic BAYESIAN INFERENCE
BODY COOLING
POSTMORTEM INTERVAL
UNCERTAINTY
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv In this work, the postmortem interval is estimated by means of Bayesian inference using rectal temperature data from a published database. First, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties in each of the model parameters is carried out in order to assess their relative influences on the postmortem interval uncertainty. Then, the method is applied to the whole database and proves to be more reliable than the well-established nomogram method. Moreover, the result of the Bayesian inference process is the full posterior probability distribution of the postmortem interval, which provides more information than a simple point estimate or a time interval. This distribution can be used to assign probabilities to specific time intervals that may arise in a criminal investigation. The application of this statistical analysis can be extended to any method of estimating the postmortem interval.
Fil: Giana, Fabián Eduardo. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del _rea de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones no Nucleares. Gerencia de Fisica (Cab). Seccion Fisica Forense; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Onetto, Martín Alejandro. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del _rea de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones no Nucleares. Gerencia de Fisica (Cab). Seccion Fisica Forense; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Pregliasco, Rodolfo Guillermo. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del _rea de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones no Nucleares. Gerencia de Fisica (Cab). Seccion Fisica Forense; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
description In this work, the postmortem interval is estimated by means of Bayesian inference using rectal temperature data from a published database. First, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties in each of the model parameters is carried out in order to assess their relative influences on the postmortem interval uncertainty. Then, the method is applied to the whole database and proves to be more reliable than the well-established nomogram method. Moreover, the result of the Bayesian inference process is the full posterior probability distribution of the postmortem interval, which provides more information than a simple point estimate or a time interval. This distribution can be used to assign probabilities to specific time intervals that may arise in a criminal investigation. The application of this statistical analysis can be extended to any method of estimating the postmortem interval.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/126743
Giana, Fabián Eduardo; Onetto, Martín Alejandro; Pregliasco, Rodolfo Guillermo; Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach; Elsevier Ireland; Forensic Science International; 317; 110505; 12-2020; 110505
0379-0738
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/126743
identifier_str_mv Giana, Fabián Eduardo; Onetto, Martín Alejandro; Pregliasco, Rodolfo Guillermo; Uncertainty in the estimation of the postmortem interval based on rectal temperature measurements: A Bayesian approach; Elsevier Ireland; Forensic Science International; 317; 110505; 12-2020; 110505
0379-0738
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0379073820303674
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.forsciint.2020.110505
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Ireland
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Ireland
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1842269615484305408
score 13.13397

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