A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study

Autores
Heit, Guillermo Eugenio; Sione, Walter Fabian; Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The objective of this work was to estimate the potential geographical distribution of HLB in South America, under historical climate records and future climate change scenarios, based on climatic conditions at the sites where HLB has been established in South America. Different spatial modeling algorithms were used. Climate change estimates of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, by the 2050s and 2070s, were considered. Results of assessed models differed significantly in the estimation of areas with greater climatic risk for the establishment of HLB in South America. According to the estimates of the fifth IPCC report, the effects of climate change would determine that in future, high-risk areas for HLB establishment would be displaced towards the southwest of the areas considered riskier nowadays. Even individual models do not present a clear pattern for HLB establishment and distribution, the integration of the results generated by different algorithms in a consensus model, can provide additional information for phytosanitary decision making
Fil: Heit, Guillermo Eugenio. Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería, Pesca y Alimento. Servicio Nacional de Sanidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria; Argentina
Fil: Sione, Walter Fabian. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Luján; Argentina
Fil: Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; Argentina
Materia
CLIMATE CHANGE
HLB
INVASIVE SPECIES
PHYTOSANITARY RISK
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/183634
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case studyHeit, Guillermo EugenioSione, Walter FabianAceñolaza, Pablo GilbertoCLIMATE CHANGEHLBINVASIVE SPECIESPHYTOSANITARY RISKhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/4.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4The objective of this work was to estimate the potential geographical distribution of HLB in South America, under historical climate records and future climate change scenarios, based on climatic conditions at the sites where HLB has been established in South America. Different spatial modeling algorithms were used. Climate change estimates of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, by the 2050s and 2070s, were considered. Results of assessed models differed significantly in the estimation of areas with greater climatic risk for the establishment of HLB in South America. According to the estimates of the fifth IPCC report, the effects of climate change would determine that in future, high-risk areas for HLB establishment would be displaced towards the southwest of the areas considered riskier nowadays. Even individual models do not present a clear pattern for HLB establishment and distribution, the integration of the results generated by different algorithms in a consensus model, can provide additional information for phytosanitary decision makingFil: Heit, Guillermo Eugenio. Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería, Pesca y Alimento. Servicio Nacional de Sanidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria; ArgentinaFil: Sione, Walter Fabian. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Luján; ArgentinaFil: Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; ArgentinaUniversity of Minnesota2020-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/183634Heit, Guillermo Eugenio; Sione, Walter Fabian; Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto; A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study; University of Minnesota; International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics; 08; 5-2020; 179-1922147-89882149-3766CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.22004/ag.econ.303557info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/303557info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:54:34Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/183634instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:54:35.228CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study
title A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study
spellingShingle A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study
Heit, Guillermo Eugenio
CLIMATE CHANGE
HLB
INVASIVE SPECIES
PHYTOSANITARY RISK
title_short A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study
title_full A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study
title_fullStr A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study
title_full_unstemmed A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study
title_sort A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Heit, Guillermo Eugenio
Sione, Walter Fabian
Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto
author Heit, Guillermo Eugenio
author_facet Heit, Guillermo Eugenio
Sione, Walter Fabian
Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto
author_role author
author2 Sione, Walter Fabian
Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CLIMATE CHANGE
HLB
INVASIVE SPECIES
PHYTOSANITARY RISK
topic CLIMATE CHANGE
HLB
INVASIVE SPECIES
PHYTOSANITARY RISK
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4.1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The objective of this work was to estimate the potential geographical distribution of HLB in South America, under historical climate records and future climate change scenarios, based on climatic conditions at the sites where HLB has been established in South America. Different spatial modeling algorithms were used. Climate change estimates of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, by the 2050s and 2070s, were considered. Results of assessed models differed significantly in the estimation of areas with greater climatic risk for the establishment of HLB in South America. According to the estimates of the fifth IPCC report, the effects of climate change would determine that in future, high-risk areas for HLB establishment would be displaced towards the southwest of the areas considered riskier nowadays. Even individual models do not present a clear pattern for HLB establishment and distribution, the integration of the results generated by different algorithms in a consensus model, can provide additional information for phytosanitary decision making
Fil: Heit, Guillermo Eugenio. Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería, Pesca y Alimento. Servicio Nacional de Sanidad y Calidad Agroalimentaria; Argentina
Fil: Sione, Walter Fabian. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Luján; Argentina
Fil: Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto. Provincia de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Universidad Autónoma de Entre Ríos. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Santa Fe. Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia de Tecnología a la Producción; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos. Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias; Argentina
description The objective of this work was to estimate the potential geographical distribution of HLB in South America, under historical climate records and future climate change scenarios, based on climatic conditions at the sites where HLB has been established in South America. Different spatial modeling algorithms were used. Climate change estimates of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, by the 2050s and 2070s, were considered. Results of assessed models differed significantly in the estimation of areas with greater climatic risk for the establishment of HLB in South America. According to the estimates of the fifth IPCC report, the effects of climate change would determine that in future, high-risk areas for HLB establishment would be displaced towards the southwest of the areas considered riskier nowadays. Even individual models do not present a clear pattern for HLB establishment and distribution, the integration of the results generated by different algorithms in a consensus model, can provide additional information for phytosanitary decision making
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/183634
Heit, Guillermo Eugenio; Sione, Walter Fabian; Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto; A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study; University of Minnesota; International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics; 08; 5-2020; 179-192
2147-8988
2149-3766
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/183634
identifier_str_mv Heit, Guillermo Eugenio; Sione, Walter Fabian; Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto; A multiple model approach for future potential distribution of hlb: South America case study; University of Minnesota; International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics; 08; 5-2020; 179-192
2147-8988
2149-3766
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.22004/ag.econ.303557
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/303557
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv University of Minnesota
publisher.none.fl_str_mv University of Minnesota
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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