Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change

Autores
Magnan, Alexandre; Pörtner, Hans Otto; Duvat, Virginie; Garschagen, Matthias; Guinder, Valeria Ana; Zommers, Zinta; Hoegh Guldberg, Ove; Gattuso, Jean Pierre
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The three recent Special Reports of the IPCC provide an opportunity to understand overarching climate risk, as they cover a wide diversity of risks to natural and human systems. Here we develop a scoring system to translate qualitative IPCC risk assessments into risk scores that, when aggregated, describe global risk from climate change. By the end of this century, global climate risk will increase substantially with greenhouse gas emissions compared to today (composite risk score increase of two- and fourfold under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). Comparison of risk levels under +1.5 °C and +2 °C suggests that every additional 0.5 °C of global warming will contribute to higher risk globally (by about a third). Societal adaptation has the potential to decrease global climate risk substantially (by about half) under all RCPs, but cannot fully prevent residual risks from increasing (by one-third under RCP2.6 and doubling under RCP8.5, compared to today).
Fil: Magnan, Alexandre. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations; Francia. La Rochelle University; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia
Fil: Pörtner, Hans Otto. Alfred-Wegener-Institut. Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar und Meeresforschung; Alemania
Fil: Duvat, Virginie. La Rochelle University; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia
Fil: Garschagen, Matthias. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania
Fil: Guinder, Valeria Ana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina
Fil: Zommers, Zinta. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs; Estados Unidos. United Nations Headquaters; Estados Unidos
Fil: Hoegh Guldberg, Ove. University of Queensland; Australia
Fil: Gattuso, Jean Pierre. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia. Sorbonne University; Francia. Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation; Mónaco
Materia
IPCC REPORTS
CLIMATE CHANGE
RISK ASSESSMENT
HUMAN AND NATURAL SYSTEMS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/158048
Acceder
id CONICETDig_2ee29b7cc2b36fdd60b7ae0cb68c1553
oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/158048
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate changeMagnan, AlexandrePörtner, Hans OttoDuvat, VirginieGarschagen, MatthiasGuinder, Valeria AnaZommers, ZintaHoegh Guldberg, OveGattuso, Jean PierreIPCC REPORTSCLIMATE CHANGERISK ASSESSMENTHUMAN AND NATURAL SYSTEMShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1The three recent Special Reports of the IPCC provide an opportunity to understand overarching climate risk, as they cover a wide diversity of risks to natural and human systems. Here we develop a scoring system to translate qualitative IPCC risk assessments into risk scores that, when aggregated, describe global risk from climate change. By the end of this century, global climate risk will increase substantially with greenhouse gas emissions compared to today (composite risk score increase of two- and fourfold under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). Comparison of risk levels under +1.5 °C and +2 °C suggests that every additional 0.5 °C of global warming will contribute to higher risk globally (by about a third). Societal adaptation has the potential to decrease global climate risk substantially (by about half) under all RCPs, but cannot fully prevent residual risks from increasing (by one-third under RCP2.6 and doubling under RCP8.5, compared to today).Fil: Magnan, Alexandre. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations; Francia. La Rochelle University; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Pörtner, Hans Otto. Alfred-Wegener-Institut. Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar und Meeresforschung; AlemaniaFil: Duvat, Virginie. La Rochelle University; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Garschagen, Matthias. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; AlemaniaFil: Guinder, Valeria Ana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; ArgentinaFil: Zommers, Zinta. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs; Estados Unidos. United Nations Headquaters; Estados UnidosFil: Hoegh Guldberg, Ove. University of Queensland; AustraliaFil: Gattuso, Jean Pierre. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia. Sorbonne University; Francia. Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation; MónacoNature2021-09-30info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/158048Magnan, Alexandre; Pörtner, Hans Otto; Duvat, Virginie; Garschagen, Matthias; Guinder, Valeria Ana; et al.; Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change; Nature; Nature Climate Change; 11; 10; 30-9-2021; 879-8851758-678X1758-6798CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01156-winfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41558-021-01156-winfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-03T10:10:55Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/158048instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-03 10:10:56.223CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change
title Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change
spellingShingle Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change
Magnan, Alexandre
IPCC REPORTS
CLIMATE CHANGE
RISK ASSESSMENT
HUMAN AND NATURAL SYSTEMS
title_short Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change
title_full Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change
title_fullStr Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change
title_sort Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Magnan, Alexandre
Pörtner, Hans Otto
Duvat, Virginie
Garschagen, Matthias
Guinder, Valeria Ana
Zommers, Zinta
Hoegh Guldberg, Ove
Gattuso, Jean Pierre
author Magnan, Alexandre
author_facet Magnan, Alexandre
Pörtner, Hans Otto
Duvat, Virginie
Garschagen, Matthias
Guinder, Valeria Ana
Zommers, Zinta
Hoegh Guldberg, Ove
Gattuso, Jean Pierre
author_role author
author2 Pörtner, Hans Otto
Duvat, Virginie
Garschagen, Matthias
Guinder, Valeria Ana
Zommers, Zinta
Hoegh Guldberg, Ove
Gattuso, Jean Pierre
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv IPCC REPORTS
CLIMATE CHANGE
RISK ASSESSMENT
HUMAN AND NATURAL SYSTEMS
topic IPCC REPORTS
CLIMATE CHANGE
RISK ASSESSMENT
HUMAN AND NATURAL SYSTEMS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.5
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The three recent Special Reports of the IPCC provide an opportunity to understand overarching climate risk, as they cover a wide diversity of risks to natural and human systems. Here we develop a scoring system to translate qualitative IPCC risk assessments into risk scores that, when aggregated, describe global risk from climate change. By the end of this century, global climate risk will increase substantially with greenhouse gas emissions compared to today (composite risk score increase of two- and fourfold under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). Comparison of risk levels under +1.5 °C and +2 °C suggests that every additional 0.5 °C of global warming will contribute to higher risk globally (by about a third). Societal adaptation has the potential to decrease global climate risk substantially (by about half) under all RCPs, but cannot fully prevent residual risks from increasing (by one-third under RCP2.6 and doubling under RCP8.5, compared to today).
Fil: Magnan, Alexandre. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations; Francia. La Rochelle University; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia
Fil: Pörtner, Hans Otto. Alfred-Wegener-Institut. Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar und Meeresforschung; Alemania
Fil: Duvat, Virginie. La Rochelle University; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia
Fil: Garschagen, Matthias. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania
Fil: Guinder, Valeria Ana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina
Fil: Zommers, Zinta. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs; Estados Unidos. United Nations Headquaters; Estados Unidos
Fil: Hoegh Guldberg, Ove. University of Queensland; Australia
Fil: Gattuso, Jean Pierre. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia. Sorbonne University; Francia. Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation; Mónaco
description The three recent Special Reports of the IPCC provide an opportunity to understand overarching climate risk, as they cover a wide diversity of risks to natural and human systems. Here we develop a scoring system to translate qualitative IPCC risk assessments into risk scores that, when aggregated, describe global risk from climate change. By the end of this century, global climate risk will increase substantially with greenhouse gas emissions compared to today (composite risk score increase of two- and fourfold under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). Comparison of risk levels under +1.5 °C and +2 °C suggests that every additional 0.5 °C of global warming will contribute to higher risk globally (by about a third). Societal adaptation has the potential to decrease global climate risk substantially (by about half) under all RCPs, but cannot fully prevent residual risks from increasing (by one-third under RCP2.6 and doubling under RCP8.5, compared to today).
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021-09-30
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/158048
Magnan, Alexandre; Pörtner, Hans Otto; Duvat, Virginie; Garschagen, Matthias; Guinder, Valeria Ana; et al.; Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change; Nature; Nature Climate Change; 11; 10; 30-9-2021; 879-885
1758-678X
1758-6798
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/158048
identifier_str_mv Magnan, Alexandre; Pörtner, Hans Otto; Duvat, Virginie; Garschagen, Matthias; Guinder, Valeria Ana; et al.; Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change; Nature; Nature Climate Change; 11; 10; 30-9-2021; 879-885
1758-678X
1758-6798
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01156-w
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41558-021-01156-w
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Nature
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
_version_ 1842270137756942336
score 13.13397

Publicaciones similares