Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development

Autores
Green, Adam S.; Feinman, Gary; Thompson, Amy; Cruz, Pablo; Chirikure, Shadreck; Kerig, Tim; Lawrence, Dan; Petrie, Cameron; Ortman, Scott
Año de publicación
2025
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Understanding the relationship between inequality and economic growth is a critical science problem that hinders sustainable development. In 1955, Simon Kuznets hypothesized that rising economic growth raises inequality, which levels off as that growth continues. Kuznets’ “curve,” which is a cornerstone of development economics, was based on data from a small sample of rich capitalist economies. Here, we draw on the GINI database, which includes area measurements of 53,464 residences from 1,176 settlements dating from 21,000 BC to the present, and published data from the Spatial Analysis in Maya Studies (SAMS) group, to radically reevaluate Kuznets’ curve. We use Gini coefficients of residential disparity, a proxy of inequality, and mean residence area, a proxy of productivity, to investigate past sustainable development in the Bronze Age Interaction Zone (BAIZ), the Mundo Maya, and Britain prior to, over the course of, and after the Roman conquest. We interpolate spatial patterns across each zone to statistically evaluate changes in inequality and economic growth. We find a recurring pattern in which phases of sustainable development, a rise in productivity without a rise in inequality, gave way to increasing inequality. These patterns resemble those Branko Milanovic termed “Kuznets’ waves,” albeit at timescales better described as “tides,” which began after the introduction of weight metrology, an early form of economic governance associated with long-distance exchange. We posit that past sustainable development was predicated on balancing reciprocity from the bottom–up with mechanisms like early weight metrology but was repeatedly forestalled as inchoate elites co-optedthese mechanisms.
Fil: Green, Adam S.. University of York; Reino Unido
Fil: Feinman, Gary. Field Museum of National History; Estados Unidos
Fil: Thompson, Amy. University of Texas at Austin; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cruz, Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Unidad Ejecutora en Ciencias Sociales Regionales y Humanidades. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy. Unidad Ejecutora en Ciencias Sociales Regionales y Humanidades; Argentina
Fil: Chirikure, Shadreck. University of Oxford; Reino Unido
Fil: Kerig, Tim. Christian Albrechts Universitat Zu Kiel; Alemania
Fil: Lawrence, Dan. University of Durham; Reino Unido
Fil: Petrie, Cameron. University of Cambridge; Estados Unidos
Fil: Ortman, Scott. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos
Materia
INEQUALITY
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
PRODUCTIVITY
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/265917

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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable developmentGreen, Adam S.Feinman, GaryThompson, AmyCruz, PabloChirikure, ShadreckKerig, TimLawrence, DanPetrie, CameronOrtman, ScottINEQUALITYSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTPRODUCTIVITYECONOMIC GROWTHhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/6.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/6Understanding the relationship between inequality and economic growth is a critical science problem that hinders sustainable development. In 1955, Simon Kuznets hypothesized that rising economic growth raises inequality, which levels off as that growth continues. Kuznets’ “curve,” which is a cornerstone of development economics, was based on data from a small sample of rich capitalist economies. Here, we draw on the GINI database, which includes area measurements of 53,464 residences from 1,176 settlements dating from 21,000 BC to the present, and published data from the Spatial Analysis in Maya Studies (SAMS) group, to radically reevaluate Kuznets’ curve. We use Gini coefficients of residential disparity, a proxy of inequality, and mean residence area, a proxy of productivity, to investigate past sustainable development in the Bronze Age Interaction Zone (BAIZ), the Mundo Maya, and Britain prior to, over the course of, and after the Roman conquest. We interpolate spatial patterns across each zone to statistically evaluate changes in inequality and economic growth. We find a recurring pattern in which phases of sustainable development, a rise in productivity without a rise in inequality, gave way to increasing inequality. These patterns resemble those Branko Milanovic termed “Kuznets’ waves,” albeit at timescales better described as “tides,” which began after the introduction of weight metrology, an early form of economic governance associated with long-distance exchange. We posit that past sustainable development was predicated on balancing reciprocity from the bottom–up with mechanisms like early weight metrology but was repeatedly forestalled as inchoate elites co-optedthese mechanisms.Fil: Green, Adam S.. University of York; Reino UnidoFil: Feinman, Gary. Field Museum of National History; Estados UnidosFil: Thompson, Amy. University of Texas at Austin; Estados UnidosFil: Cruz, Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Unidad Ejecutora en Ciencias Sociales Regionales y Humanidades. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy. Unidad Ejecutora en Ciencias Sociales Regionales y Humanidades; ArgentinaFil: Chirikure, Shadreck. University of Oxford; Reino UnidoFil: Kerig, Tim. Christian Albrechts Universitat Zu Kiel; AlemaniaFil: Lawrence, Dan. University of Durham; Reino UnidoFil: Petrie, Cameron. University of Cambridge; Estados UnidosFil: Ortman, Scott. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados UnidosNational Academy of Sciences2025-04info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/265917Green, Adam S.; Feinman, Gary; Thompson, Amy; Cruz, Pablo; Chirikure, Shadreck; et al.; Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development; National Academy of Sciences; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of The United States of America; 122; 16; 4-2025; 1-90027-8424CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2400603121info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.2400603121info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:38:20Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/265917instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:38:20.529CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development
title Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development
spellingShingle Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development
Green, Adam S.
INEQUALITY
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
PRODUCTIVITY
ECONOMIC GROWTH
title_short Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development
title_full Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development
title_fullStr Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development
title_full_unstemmed Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development
title_sort Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Green, Adam S.
Feinman, Gary
Thompson, Amy
Cruz, Pablo
Chirikure, Shadreck
Kerig, Tim
Lawrence, Dan
Petrie, Cameron
Ortman, Scott
author Green, Adam S.
author_facet Green, Adam S.
Feinman, Gary
Thompson, Amy
Cruz, Pablo
Chirikure, Shadreck
Kerig, Tim
Lawrence, Dan
Petrie, Cameron
Ortman, Scott
author_role author
author2 Feinman, Gary
Thompson, Amy
Cruz, Pablo
Chirikure, Shadreck
Kerig, Tim
Lawrence, Dan
Petrie, Cameron
Ortman, Scott
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv INEQUALITY
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
PRODUCTIVITY
ECONOMIC GROWTH
topic INEQUALITY
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
PRODUCTIVITY
ECONOMIC GROWTH
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/6.1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/6
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Understanding the relationship between inequality and economic growth is a critical science problem that hinders sustainable development. In 1955, Simon Kuznets hypothesized that rising economic growth raises inequality, which levels off as that growth continues. Kuznets’ “curve,” which is a cornerstone of development economics, was based on data from a small sample of rich capitalist economies. Here, we draw on the GINI database, which includes area measurements of 53,464 residences from 1,176 settlements dating from 21,000 BC to the present, and published data from the Spatial Analysis in Maya Studies (SAMS) group, to radically reevaluate Kuznets’ curve. We use Gini coefficients of residential disparity, a proxy of inequality, and mean residence area, a proxy of productivity, to investigate past sustainable development in the Bronze Age Interaction Zone (BAIZ), the Mundo Maya, and Britain prior to, over the course of, and after the Roman conquest. We interpolate spatial patterns across each zone to statistically evaluate changes in inequality and economic growth. We find a recurring pattern in which phases of sustainable development, a rise in productivity without a rise in inequality, gave way to increasing inequality. These patterns resemble those Branko Milanovic termed “Kuznets’ waves,” albeit at timescales better described as “tides,” which began after the introduction of weight metrology, an early form of economic governance associated with long-distance exchange. We posit that past sustainable development was predicated on balancing reciprocity from the bottom–up with mechanisms like early weight metrology but was repeatedly forestalled as inchoate elites co-optedthese mechanisms.
Fil: Green, Adam S.. University of York; Reino Unido
Fil: Feinman, Gary. Field Museum of National History; Estados Unidos
Fil: Thompson, Amy. University of Texas at Austin; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cruz, Pablo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Unidad Ejecutora en Ciencias Sociales Regionales y Humanidades. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy. Unidad Ejecutora en Ciencias Sociales Regionales y Humanidades; Argentina
Fil: Chirikure, Shadreck. University of Oxford; Reino Unido
Fil: Kerig, Tim. Christian Albrechts Universitat Zu Kiel; Alemania
Fil: Lawrence, Dan. University of Durham; Reino Unido
Fil: Petrie, Cameron. University of Cambridge; Estados Unidos
Fil: Ortman, Scott. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos
description Understanding the relationship between inequality and economic growth is a critical science problem that hinders sustainable development. In 1955, Simon Kuznets hypothesized that rising economic growth raises inequality, which levels off as that growth continues. Kuznets’ “curve,” which is a cornerstone of development economics, was based on data from a small sample of rich capitalist economies. Here, we draw on the GINI database, which includes area measurements of 53,464 residences from 1,176 settlements dating from 21,000 BC to the present, and published data from the Spatial Analysis in Maya Studies (SAMS) group, to radically reevaluate Kuznets’ curve. We use Gini coefficients of residential disparity, a proxy of inequality, and mean residence area, a proxy of productivity, to investigate past sustainable development in the Bronze Age Interaction Zone (BAIZ), the Mundo Maya, and Britain prior to, over the course of, and after the Roman conquest. We interpolate spatial patterns across each zone to statistically evaluate changes in inequality and economic growth. We find a recurring pattern in which phases of sustainable development, a rise in productivity without a rise in inequality, gave way to increasing inequality. These patterns resemble those Branko Milanovic termed “Kuznets’ waves,” albeit at timescales better described as “tides,” which began after the introduction of weight metrology, an early form of economic governance associated with long-distance exchange. We posit that past sustainable development was predicated on balancing reciprocity from the bottom–up with mechanisms like early weight metrology but was repeatedly forestalled as inchoate elites co-optedthese mechanisms.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025-04
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/265917
Green, Adam S.; Feinman, Gary; Thompson, Amy; Cruz, Pablo; Chirikure, Shadreck; et al.; Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development; National Academy of Sciences; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of The United States of America; 122; 16; 4-2025; 1-9
0027-8424
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/265917
identifier_str_mv Green, Adam S.; Feinman, Gary; Thompson, Amy; Cruz, Pablo; Chirikure, Shadreck; et al.; Kuznets’ tides: An archaeological perspective on the long-term dynamics of sustainable development; National Academy of Sciences; Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of The United States of America; 122; 16; 4-2025; 1-9
0027-8424
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2400603121
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.2400603121
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv National Academy of Sciences
publisher.none.fl_str_mv National Academy of Sciences
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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