Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations

Autores
Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Sibona, Gustavo Javier; Condat, Carlos
Año de publicación
2018
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Aedes aegypti is the main vector of multiple diseases, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Due to modifications in weather patterns, its geographical range is continuously evolving. Temperature is a key factor for its expansion into regions with cool winters, but rainfall can also have a strong impact on the colonization of these regions, since larvae emerging after a rainfall are likely to die at temperatures below 10 °C. As climate change is expected to affect rainfall regimes, with a higher frequency of heavy storms and an increase in drought-affected areas, it is important to understand how different rainfall scenarios may shape Ae. aegypti's range. We develop a model for the population dynamics of Ae. aegypti, coupled with a rainfall model to study the effect of the temporal distribution of rainfall on mosquito abundance. Using a fracturing process, we then investigate the effect of a higher variability in the daily rainfall. As an example, we show that rainfall distribution is necessary to explain the geographic range of Ae. aegypti in Taiwan, an island characterized by rainy winters in the north and dry winters in the south. We also predict that a higher variability in the rainfall time distribution will decrease the maximum abundance of Ae. aegypti during the summer. An increase in daily rainfall variability will likewise enhance its extinction probability. Finally, we obtain a nonlinear relationship between dry season duration and extinction probability. These findings can have a significant impact on our ability to predict disease outbreaks.
Fil: Valdez, Lucas Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; Argentina. Boston University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Sibona, Gustavo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; Argentina
Fil: Condat, Carlos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; Argentina
Materia
AEDES
MATHEMATICAL MODELING
MOSQUITO ABUNDANCE
RAINFALL
TAIWAN
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/91565
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/91565
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populationsValdez, Lucas DanielSibona, Gustavo JavierCondat, CarlosAEDESMATHEMATICAL MODELINGMOSQUITO ABUNDANCERAINFALLTAIWANhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Aedes aegypti is the main vector of multiple diseases, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Due to modifications in weather patterns, its geographical range is continuously evolving. Temperature is a key factor for its expansion into regions with cool winters, but rainfall can also have a strong impact on the colonization of these regions, since larvae emerging after a rainfall are likely to die at temperatures below 10 °C. As climate change is expected to affect rainfall regimes, with a higher frequency of heavy storms and an increase in drought-affected areas, it is important to understand how different rainfall scenarios may shape Ae. aegypti's range. We develop a model for the population dynamics of Ae. aegypti, coupled with a rainfall model to study the effect of the temporal distribution of rainfall on mosquito abundance. Using a fracturing process, we then investigate the effect of a higher variability in the daily rainfall. As an example, we show that rainfall distribution is necessary to explain the geographic range of Ae. aegypti in Taiwan, an island characterized by rainy winters in the north and dry winters in the south. We also predict that a higher variability in the rainfall time distribution will decrease the maximum abundance of Ae. aegypti during the summer. An increase in daily rainfall variability will likewise enhance its extinction probability. Finally, we obtain a nonlinear relationship between dry season duration and extinction probability. These findings can have a significant impact on our ability to predict disease outbreaks.Fil: Valdez, Lucas Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; Argentina. Boston University; Estados UnidosFil: Sibona, Gustavo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; ArgentinaFil: Condat, Carlos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; ArgentinaElsevier Science2018-10-10info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/91565Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Sibona, Gustavo Javier; Condat, Carlos; Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations; Elsevier Science; Ecological Modelling; 385; 10-10-2018; 96-1050304-3800CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.07.003info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380018302382info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.07164info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:05:31Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/91565instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:05:31.842CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations
title Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations
spellingShingle Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations
Valdez, Lucas Daniel
AEDES
MATHEMATICAL MODELING
MOSQUITO ABUNDANCE
RAINFALL
TAIWAN
title_short Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations
title_full Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations
title_fullStr Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations
title_full_unstemmed Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations
title_sort Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Valdez, Lucas Daniel
Sibona, Gustavo Javier
Condat, Carlos
author Valdez, Lucas Daniel
author_facet Valdez, Lucas Daniel
Sibona, Gustavo Javier
Condat, Carlos
author_role author
author2 Sibona, Gustavo Javier
Condat, Carlos
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv AEDES
MATHEMATICAL MODELING
MOSQUITO ABUNDANCE
RAINFALL
TAIWAN
topic AEDES
MATHEMATICAL MODELING
MOSQUITO ABUNDANCE
RAINFALL
TAIWAN
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Aedes aegypti is the main vector of multiple diseases, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Due to modifications in weather patterns, its geographical range is continuously evolving. Temperature is a key factor for its expansion into regions with cool winters, but rainfall can also have a strong impact on the colonization of these regions, since larvae emerging after a rainfall are likely to die at temperatures below 10 °C. As climate change is expected to affect rainfall regimes, with a higher frequency of heavy storms and an increase in drought-affected areas, it is important to understand how different rainfall scenarios may shape Ae. aegypti's range. We develop a model for the population dynamics of Ae. aegypti, coupled with a rainfall model to study the effect of the temporal distribution of rainfall on mosquito abundance. Using a fracturing process, we then investigate the effect of a higher variability in the daily rainfall. As an example, we show that rainfall distribution is necessary to explain the geographic range of Ae. aegypti in Taiwan, an island characterized by rainy winters in the north and dry winters in the south. We also predict that a higher variability in the rainfall time distribution will decrease the maximum abundance of Ae. aegypti during the summer. An increase in daily rainfall variability will likewise enhance its extinction probability. Finally, we obtain a nonlinear relationship between dry season duration and extinction probability. These findings can have a significant impact on our ability to predict disease outbreaks.
Fil: Valdez, Lucas Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; Argentina. Boston University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Sibona, Gustavo Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; Argentina
Fil: Condat, Carlos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Instituto de Física Enrique Gaviola; Argentina
description Aedes aegypti is the main vector of multiple diseases, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Due to modifications in weather patterns, its geographical range is continuously evolving. Temperature is a key factor for its expansion into regions with cool winters, but rainfall can also have a strong impact on the colonization of these regions, since larvae emerging after a rainfall are likely to die at temperatures below 10 °C. As climate change is expected to affect rainfall regimes, with a higher frequency of heavy storms and an increase in drought-affected areas, it is important to understand how different rainfall scenarios may shape Ae. aegypti's range. We develop a model for the population dynamics of Ae. aegypti, coupled with a rainfall model to study the effect of the temporal distribution of rainfall on mosquito abundance. Using a fracturing process, we then investigate the effect of a higher variability in the daily rainfall. As an example, we show that rainfall distribution is necessary to explain the geographic range of Ae. aegypti in Taiwan, an island characterized by rainy winters in the north and dry winters in the south. We also predict that a higher variability in the rainfall time distribution will decrease the maximum abundance of Ae. aegypti during the summer. An increase in daily rainfall variability will likewise enhance its extinction probability. Finally, we obtain a nonlinear relationship between dry season duration and extinction probability. These findings can have a significant impact on our ability to predict disease outbreaks.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018-10-10
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/91565
Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Sibona, Gustavo Javier; Condat, Carlos; Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations; Elsevier Science; Ecological Modelling; 385; 10-10-2018; 96-105
0304-3800
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/91565
identifier_str_mv Valdez, Lucas Daniel; Sibona, Gustavo Javier; Condat, Carlos; Impact of rainfall on Aedes aegypti populations; Elsevier Science; Ecological Modelling; 385; 10-10-2018; 96-105
0304-3800
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.07.003
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380018302382
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.07164
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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