Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion

Autores
Nicolas, Alexandre; Bouzat, Sebastian; Kuperman, Marcelo Nestor
Año de publicación
2016
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Mathematical models of pedestrian evacuation and the associated simulation software have become essential tools for the assessment of the safety of public facilities and buildings. While a variety of models is now available, their calibration and test against empirical data are generally restricted to global averaged quantities; the statistics compiled from the time series of individual escapes ("microscopic" statistics) measured in recent experiments are thus overlooked. In the same spirit, much research has primarily focused on the average global evacuation time, whereas the whole distribution of evacuation times over some set of realizations should matter. In the present paper we propose and discuss the validity of a simple relation between this distribution and the microscopic statistics, which is theoretically valid in the absence of correlations. To this purpose, we develop a minimal cellular automaton, with features that afford a semiquantitative reproduction of the experimental microscopic statistics. We then introduce a process of social contagion of impatient behavior in the model and show that the simple relation under test may dramatically fail at high contagion strengths, the latter being responsible for the emergence of strong correlations in the system. We conclude with comments on the potential practical relevance for safety science of calculations based on microscopic statistics.
Fil: Nicolas, Alexandre. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Bouzat, Sebastian. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Kuperman, Marcelo Nestor. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Materia
PEDESTRIAN DYNAMICS
SOCIAL CONTAGION
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/125853
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagionNicolas, AlexandreBouzat, SebastianKuperman, Marcelo NestorPEDESTRIAN DYNAMICSSOCIAL CONTAGIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Mathematical models of pedestrian evacuation and the associated simulation software have become essential tools for the assessment of the safety of public facilities and buildings. While a variety of models is now available, their calibration and test against empirical data are generally restricted to global averaged quantities; the statistics compiled from the time series of individual escapes ("microscopic" statistics) measured in recent experiments are thus overlooked. In the same spirit, much research has primarily focused on the average global evacuation time, whereas the whole distribution of evacuation times over some set of realizations should matter. In the present paper we propose and discuss the validity of a simple relation between this distribution and the microscopic statistics, which is theoretically valid in the absence of correlations. To this purpose, we develop a minimal cellular automaton, with features that afford a semiquantitative reproduction of the experimental microscopic statistics. We then introduce a process of social contagion of impatient behavior in the model and show that the simple relation under test may dramatically fail at high contagion strengths, the latter being responsible for the emergence of strong correlations in the system. We conclude with comments on the potential practical relevance for safety science of calculations based on microscopic statistics.Fil: Nicolas, Alexandre. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaFil: Bouzat, Sebastian. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaFil: Kuperman, Marcelo Nestor. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaAmerican Physical Society2016-08info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/125853Nicolas, Alexandre; Bouzat, Sebastian; Kuperman, Marcelo Nestor; Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion; American Physical Society; Physical Review E; 94; 2; 8-2016; 22313-223141539-37552470-0053CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.94.022313info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1103/PhysRevE.94.022313info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:45:37Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/125853instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:45:37.696CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion
title Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion
spellingShingle Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion
Nicolas, Alexandre
PEDESTRIAN DYNAMICS
SOCIAL CONTAGION
title_short Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion
title_full Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion
title_fullStr Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion
title_full_unstemmed Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion
title_sort Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Nicolas, Alexandre
Bouzat, Sebastian
Kuperman, Marcelo Nestor
author Nicolas, Alexandre
author_facet Nicolas, Alexandre
Bouzat, Sebastian
Kuperman, Marcelo Nestor
author_role author
author2 Bouzat, Sebastian
Kuperman, Marcelo Nestor
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv PEDESTRIAN DYNAMICS
SOCIAL CONTAGION
topic PEDESTRIAN DYNAMICS
SOCIAL CONTAGION
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.3
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Mathematical models of pedestrian evacuation and the associated simulation software have become essential tools for the assessment of the safety of public facilities and buildings. While a variety of models is now available, their calibration and test against empirical data are generally restricted to global averaged quantities; the statistics compiled from the time series of individual escapes ("microscopic" statistics) measured in recent experiments are thus overlooked. In the same spirit, much research has primarily focused on the average global evacuation time, whereas the whole distribution of evacuation times over some set of realizations should matter. In the present paper we propose and discuss the validity of a simple relation between this distribution and the microscopic statistics, which is theoretically valid in the absence of correlations. To this purpose, we develop a minimal cellular automaton, with features that afford a semiquantitative reproduction of the experimental microscopic statistics. We then introduce a process of social contagion of impatient behavior in the model and show that the simple relation under test may dramatically fail at high contagion strengths, the latter being responsible for the emergence of strong correlations in the system. We conclude with comments on the potential practical relevance for safety science of calculations based on microscopic statistics.
Fil: Nicolas, Alexandre. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Bouzat, Sebastian. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
Fil: Kuperman, Marcelo Nestor. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Investigaciones y Aplicaciones No Nucleares. Gerencia de Física (cab). División Física Estadística; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina
description Mathematical models of pedestrian evacuation and the associated simulation software have become essential tools for the assessment of the safety of public facilities and buildings. While a variety of models is now available, their calibration and test against empirical data are generally restricted to global averaged quantities; the statistics compiled from the time series of individual escapes ("microscopic" statistics) measured in recent experiments are thus overlooked. In the same spirit, much research has primarily focused on the average global evacuation time, whereas the whole distribution of evacuation times over some set of realizations should matter. In the present paper we propose and discuss the validity of a simple relation between this distribution and the microscopic statistics, which is theoretically valid in the absence of correlations. To this purpose, we develop a minimal cellular automaton, with features that afford a semiquantitative reproduction of the experimental microscopic statistics. We then introduce a process of social contagion of impatient behavior in the model and show that the simple relation under test may dramatically fail at high contagion strengths, the latter being responsible for the emergence of strong correlations in the system. We conclude with comments on the potential practical relevance for safety science of calculations based on microscopic statistics.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-08
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/125853
Nicolas, Alexandre; Bouzat, Sebastian; Kuperman, Marcelo Nestor; Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion; American Physical Society; Physical Review E; 94; 2; 8-2016; 22313-22314
1539-3755
2470-0053
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/125853
identifier_str_mv Nicolas, Alexandre; Bouzat, Sebastian; Kuperman, Marcelo Nestor; Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion; American Physical Society; Physical Review E; 94; 2; 8-2016; 22313-22314
1539-3755
2470-0053
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.94.022313
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1103/PhysRevE.94.022313
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Physical Society
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Physical Society
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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