AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?

Autores
Maty Sall, Leysa; Ramos, Maria Priscila
Año de publicación
2021
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
documento de conferencia
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has recently entered into force and it appears as a possibility of economic growth and structural transformation for most African countries. Senegal is among the 54 countries that had signed and the 28 countries that had ratified the agreements.The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of intra-Africa tariff reduction/elimination in the AfCFTA framework for Senegal industrial transformation through trade and labour market impact. Four scenarios of the AfCFTA have been simulated, from full to partial liberalization, with a Senegal multi-sector static CGE model based on the STAGE CGE model. The economic transformation is assessed in terms of both international trade composition (intra-African versus trade with the rest of the world), domestic output, consumption pattern in rural and urban regions of the country and main macroeconomic indicators. Results suggest some trade diversion effects. Assuming the elimination of Senegal tariffs on all African products, main increase on imports come from sectors such as forestry, tobacco, grain milling, leather and footwear, and food crops. In addition, production increases mainly for manufacturing sectors including manufactured food , chemicals, cash crops , processed tobacco, hotels, fertilizers and machines . In contrast, production decreases for mining products, glass and pottery , food crops and forestry whose production is substituted by imports. Members can experience changes in production and consumption structures, by improving value chains integration through trade. Finally, macroeconomic impacts show that the elimination of trade barriers has the potential to boost trade and transform the production structure of Senegalese economy. However, the choice of sensitive products to be excluded is critical and have several implications.
Fil: Maty Sall, Leysa. International Food Policy Research Institute; Estados Unidos
Fil: Ramos, Maria Priscila. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Economía; Argentina
24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
Washington
Estados Unidos
Global Trade Analysis Project
Colorado State University
Materia
Senegal
AfCFTA
Structural transformation
CGE modelling
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/176548

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spelling AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?Maty Sall, LeysaRamos, Maria PriscilaSenegalAfCFTAStructural transformationCGE modellinghttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.2https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has recently entered into force and it appears as a possibility of economic growth and structural transformation for most African countries. Senegal is among the 54 countries that had signed and the 28 countries that had ratified the agreements.The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of intra-Africa tariff reduction/elimination in the AfCFTA framework for Senegal industrial transformation through trade and labour market impact. Four scenarios of the AfCFTA have been simulated, from full to partial liberalization, with a Senegal multi-sector static CGE model based on the STAGE CGE model. The economic transformation is assessed in terms of both international trade composition (intra-African versus trade with the rest of the world), domestic output, consumption pattern in rural and urban regions of the country and main macroeconomic indicators. Results suggest some trade diversion effects. Assuming the elimination of Senegal tariffs on all African products, main increase on imports come from sectors such as forestry, tobacco, grain milling, leather and footwear, and food crops. In addition, production increases mainly for manufacturing sectors including manufactured food , chemicals, cash crops , processed tobacco, hotels, fertilizers and machines . In contrast, production decreases for mining products, glass and pottery , food crops and forestry whose production is substituted by imports. Members can experience changes in production and consumption structures, by improving value chains integration through trade. Finally, macroeconomic impacts show that the elimination of trade barriers has the potential to boost trade and transform the production structure of Senegalese economy. However, the choice of sensitive products to be excluded is critical and have several implications.Fil: Maty Sall, Leysa. International Food Policy Research Institute; Estados UnidosFil: Ramos, Maria Priscila. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Economía; Argentina24th Annual Conference on Global Economic AnalysisWashingtonEstados UnidosGlobal Trade Analysis ProjectColorado State UniversityPurdue University2021info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObjectConferenciaJournalhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794info:ar-repo/semantics/documentoDeConferenciaapplication/pdfapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/176548AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?; 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis; Washington; Estados Unidos; 2021; 1-26CONICET DigitalCONICETenghttps://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/events/conferences/2021/index.aspxinfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=6255Internacionalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:44:27Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/176548instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:44:27.379CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?
title AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?
spellingShingle AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?
Maty Sall, Leysa
Senegal
AfCFTA
Structural transformation
CGE modelling
title_short AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?
title_full AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?
title_fullStr AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?
title_full_unstemmed AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?
title_sort AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Maty Sall, Leysa
Ramos, Maria Priscila
author Maty Sall, Leysa
author_facet Maty Sall, Leysa
Ramos, Maria Priscila
author_role author
author2 Ramos, Maria Priscila
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Senegal
AfCFTA
Structural transformation
CGE modelling
topic Senegal
AfCFTA
Structural transformation
CGE modelling
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5.2
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/5
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has recently entered into force and it appears as a possibility of economic growth and structural transformation for most African countries. Senegal is among the 54 countries that had signed and the 28 countries that had ratified the agreements.The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of intra-Africa tariff reduction/elimination in the AfCFTA framework for Senegal industrial transformation through trade and labour market impact. Four scenarios of the AfCFTA have been simulated, from full to partial liberalization, with a Senegal multi-sector static CGE model based on the STAGE CGE model. The economic transformation is assessed in terms of both international trade composition (intra-African versus trade with the rest of the world), domestic output, consumption pattern in rural and urban regions of the country and main macroeconomic indicators. Results suggest some trade diversion effects. Assuming the elimination of Senegal tariffs on all African products, main increase on imports come from sectors such as forestry, tobacco, grain milling, leather and footwear, and food crops. In addition, production increases mainly for manufacturing sectors including manufactured food , chemicals, cash crops , processed tobacco, hotels, fertilizers and machines . In contrast, production decreases for mining products, glass and pottery , food crops and forestry whose production is substituted by imports. Members can experience changes in production and consumption structures, by improving value chains integration through trade. Finally, macroeconomic impacts show that the elimination of trade barriers has the potential to boost trade and transform the production structure of Senegalese economy. However, the choice of sensitive products to be excluded is critical and have several implications.
Fil: Maty Sall, Leysa. International Food Policy Research Institute; Estados Unidos
Fil: Ramos, Maria Priscila. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Economía; Argentina
24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis
Washington
Estados Unidos
Global Trade Analysis Project
Colorado State University
description The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) has recently entered into force and it appears as a possibility of economic growth and structural transformation for most African countries. Senegal is among the 54 countries that had signed and the 28 countries that had ratified the agreements.The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of intra-Africa tariff reduction/elimination in the AfCFTA framework for Senegal industrial transformation through trade and labour market impact. Four scenarios of the AfCFTA have been simulated, from full to partial liberalization, with a Senegal multi-sector static CGE model based on the STAGE CGE model. The economic transformation is assessed in terms of both international trade composition (intra-African versus trade with the rest of the world), domestic output, consumption pattern in rural and urban regions of the country and main macroeconomic indicators. Results suggest some trade diversion effects. Assuming the elimination of Senegal tariffs on all African products, main increase on imports come from sectors such as forestry, tobacco, grain milling, leather and footwear, and food crops. In addition, production increases mainly for manufacturing sectors including manufactured food , chemicals, cash crops , processed tobacco, hotels, fertilizers and machines . In contrast, production decreases for mining products, glass and pottery , food crops and forestry whose production is substituted by imports. Members can experience changes in production and consumption structures, by improving value chains integration through trade. Finally, macroeconomic impacts show that the elimination of trade barriers has the potential to boost trade and transform the production structure of Senegalese economy. However, the choice of sensitive products to be excluded is critical and have several implications.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
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dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/176548
AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?; 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis; Washington; Estados Unidos; 2021; 1-26
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/176548
identifier_str_mv AfCFTA: Does it fast-track structural transformation in Senegal?; 24th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis; Washington; Estados Unidos; 2021; 1-26
CONICET Digital
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dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Purdue University
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