Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era

• Autores: Smerdon, Jason E.; Luterbacher, Jürg; Phipps, Steven J.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Ault, Toby; Coats, Sloan; Cobb, Kim M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Colose, Chris; Felis, Thomas; Gallant, Ailie; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Konecky, Bronwen; LeGrande, Allegra; Lewis, Sophie; Lopatka, Alex S.; Man, Wenmin; Mankin, Justin S.; Maxwell, Justin T.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Partin, Judson W.; Singh, Deepti; Stevenson, Samantha; Tierney, Jessica E.; Zanchettin, Davide; Zhang, Huan; Atwood, Alyssa R.; Andreu Hayles, Laia; Baek, Seung H.; Buckley, Brendan; Cook, Edward; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Dee, Sylvia G.; Griffiths, Michael L.; Kulkarni, Charuta; Kushnir, Yochanan; Lehner, Flavio; Leland, Caroline; Linderholm, Hans W.; Okazaki, Atsushi; Palmer, Jonathan; Piovano, Eduardo Luis; Raible, Christoph C.; Rao, Mukund P.; Scheff, Jacob; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Seager, Richard; Widmann, Martin; Park Williams, A.; Xoplaki, Elena
• Año de publicación: 2017
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: Water availability; 20th century; Hydroclimate changes; Proxy-models
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations 55 in hydroclimate (includingextreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observationsthat are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage isinsufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal-to-centennial variability andhighly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the60 Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate model simulations are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding ofhydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing theuncertainties and limitations of both, while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data availablefor hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted ashydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully-coupled climate models and65 discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specificreview of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as well as a discussion of expectedimprovements in estimated forcings, models and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies andlast-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how toperform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate70 hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons, as well as how they can better informinterpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisonsto better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examplesthat demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimatedfrom climate model projections.
Fil: Smerdon, Jason E.. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Luterbacher, Jürg. University Of Giessen; Alemania
Fil: Phipps, Steven J.. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Anchukaitis, Kevin J.. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos
Fil: Ault, Toby. Cornell University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Coats, Sloan. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cobb, Kim M.. Instituto Tecnológico de Georgia; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cook, Benjamin I.. Nasa Goddard Institute For Space Studies; Estados Unidos
Fil: Colose, Chris. Nasa Goddard Institute For Space Studies; Estados Unidos
Fil: Felis, Thomas. Universitat Bremen; Alemania
Fil: Gallant, Ailie. Monash University; Australia
Fil: Jungclaus, Johann H.. Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology; Alemania
Fil: Konecky, Bronwen. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos
Fil: LeGrande, Allegra. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studie; Estados Unidos
Fil: Lewis, Sophie. The Australian National University; Australia
Fil: Lopatka, Alex S.. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos
Fil: Man, Wenmin. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Fil: Mankin, Justin S.. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Estados Unidos
Fil: Maxwell, Justin T.. Indiana University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos
Fil: Partin, Judson W.. University of Texas at Austin; Estados Unidos
Fil: Singh, Deepti. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Stevenson, Samantha. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos
Fil: Tierney, Jessica E.. Arizona State University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Zanchettin, Davide. Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; Italia
Fil: Zhang, Huan. Justus Liebig University; Alemania
Fil: Atwood, Alyssa R.. Georgia Institute of Technology; Estados Unidos. Brown University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Andreu Hayles, Laia. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Baek, Seung H.. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Buckley, Brendan. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cook, Edward. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: D'Arrigo, Rosanne. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Dee, Sylvia G.. Brown University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Griffiths, Michael L.. William Paterson University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Kulkarni, Charuta. City University of New York; Estados Unidos
Fil: Kushnir, Yochanan. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Lehner, Flavio. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos
Fil: Leland, Caroline. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Linderholm, Hans W.. University of Gothenburg; Suecia
Fil: Okazaki, Atsushi. University of Tokyo; Japón
Fil: Palmer, Jonathan. University of New South Wales; Australia
Fil: Piovano, Eduardo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra; Argentina
Fil: Raible, Christoph C.. University of Bern; Suiza
Fil: Rao, Mukund P.. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Scheff, Jacob. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Schmidt, Gavin A.. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studie; Estados Unidos
Fil: Seager, Richard. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Widmann, Martin. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Park Williams, A.. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Xoplaki, Elena. Justus Liebig University; Alemania