Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions

• Autores: Green, Cara Paige; Green, David B.; Ratcliffe, Norman; Thompson, David; Lea, Mary Anne; Baylis, Alastair M. M.; Bond, Alexander L.; Bost, Charles-André; Crofts, Sarah; Cuthbert, Richard J.; González Solís, Jacob; Morrison, Kyle W.; Poisbleau, Maud; Pütz, Klemens; Raya Rey, Andrea Nélida; Ryan, Peter G.; Sagar, Paul M.; Steinfurth, Antje; Thiebot, Jean-Baptiste; Tierney, Megan; Whitehead, Thomas Otto; Wotherspoon, Simon; Hindell, Mark A.
• Año de publicación: 2023
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: CLIMATE CHANGE; HABITAT PREFERENCE MODELS; MIGRATION; OVERWINTER; SPECIES REDISTRIBUTIONS; SUBANTARCTIC PENGUINS
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071–2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change.
Fil: Green, Cara Paige. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Green, David B.. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Ratcliffe, Norman. British Antarctic Survey; Reino Unido
Fil: Thompson, David. National Institute Of Water And Atmospheric Research; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Lea, Mary Anne. University of Tasmania; Australia
Fil: Baylis, Alastair M. M.. South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute; Islas Malvinas. Macquarie University; Australia
Fil: Bond, Alexander L.. Natural History Museum; Reino Unido. Royal Society For The Protection Of Birds; Reino Unido
Fil: Bost, Charles-André. Centre Détudes Biologiques de Chizé; Francia
Fil: Crofts, Sarah. Falklands Conservation; Islas Malvinas
Fil: Cuthbert, Richard J.. World Land Trust; Reino Unido. Royal Society For The Protection Of Birds; Reino Unido
Fil: González Solís, Jacob. Universidad de Barcelona; España
Fil: Morrison, Kyle W.. National Institute Of Water And Atmospheric Research; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Poisbleau, Maud. Universiteit Antwerp; Bélgica
Fil: Pütz, Klemens. Antarctic Research Trust; Alemania
Fil: Raya Rey, Andrea Nélida. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina
Fil: Ryan, Peter G.. University of Cape Town; Sudáfrica
Fil: Sagar, Paul M.. National Institute Of Water And Atmospheric Research; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Steinfurth, Antje. Royal Society For The Protection Of Birds; Reino Unido
Fil: Thiebot, Jean-Baptiste. Hokkaido University; Japón. National Institute Of Water And Atmospheric Research; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Tierney, Megan. Joint Nature Conservation Committee; Islas Malvinas. South Atlantic Environmental Research Institute; Nueva Zelanda
Fil: Whitehead, Thomas Otto. University of Cape Town; Sudáfrica
Fil: Wotherspoon, Simon. Australian Antarctic Division; Australia
Fil: Hindell, Mark A.. Institute For Marine And Antarctic Studies; Australia