The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia

Autores
Nicoletti, Giorgio; Saravia, Leonardo Ariel; Momo, Fernando Roberto; Amos, Maritan; Suweis, Samir
Año de publicación
2023
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Between 2019 and 2020, during the country´s hottest and driest year on record, Australia experienced a dramatic bushfire season, with catastrophic ecological and environmental consequences. Several studies highlighted how such abrupt changes in fire regimes may have been in large part a consequence of climate change and other anthropogenic transformations. Here, we analyze the monthly evolution of the burned area in Australia from 2000 to 2020, obtained via satellite imaging through the MODIS platform. We find that the 2019–2020 peak is associated with signatures typically found near critical points. We introduce a modeling framework based on forest-fire models to study the properties of these emergent fire outbreaks, showing that the behavior observed during the 2019–2020 fire season matches the one of a percolation transition, where system-size outbreaks appear. Our model also highlights the existence of an absorbing phase transition that might be eventually crossed, after which the vegetation cannot recover.
Fil: Nicoletti, Giorgio. Università di Padova; Italia. Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; Italia
Fil: Saravia, Leonardo Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina
Fil: Momo, Fernando Roberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Universidad Nacional de Luján. Instituto de Ecología y Desarrollo Sustentable; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento. Instituto de Ciencias; Argentina
Fil: Amos, Maritan. Università di Padova; Italia. Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; Italia. National Biodiversity Future Center; Estados Unidos
Fil: Suweis, Samir. Università di Padova; Italia. Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; Italia
Materia
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
FORESTRY
GLOBAL CHANGE
MATHEMATICAL PHYSICS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/230561
Acceder
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network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling The emergence of scale-free fires in AustraliaNicoletti, GiorgioSaravia, Leonardo ArielMomo, Fernando RobertoAmos, MaritanSuweis, SamirENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCEFORESTRYGLOBAL CHANGEMATHEMATICAL PHYSICShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Between 2019 and 2020, during the country´s hottest and driest year on record, Australia experienced a dramatic bushfire season, with catastrophic ecological and environmental consequences. Several studies highlighted how such abrupt changes in fire regimes may have been in large part a consequence of climate change and other anthropogenic transformations. Here, we analyze the monthly evolution of the burned area in Australia from 2000 to 2020, obtained via satellite imaging through the MODIS platform. We find that the 2019–2020 peak is associated with signatures typically found near critical points. We introduce a modeling framework based on forest-fire models to study the properties of these emergent fire outbreaks, showing that the behavior observed during the 2019–2020 fire season matches the one of a percolation transition, where system-size outbreaks appear. Our model also highlights the existence of an absorbing phase transition that might be eventually crossed, after which the vegetation cannot recover.Fil: Nicoletti, Giorgio. Università di Padova; Italia. Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; ItaliaFil: Saravia, Leonardo Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas; ArgentinaFil: Momo, Fernando Roberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Universidad Nacional de Luján. Instituto de Ecología y Desarrollo Sustentable; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento. Instituto de Ciencias; ArgentinaFil: Amos, Maritan. Università di Padova; Italia. Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; Italia. National Biodiversity Future Center; Estados UnidosFil: Suweis, Samir. Università di Padova; Italia. Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; ItaliaElsevier2023-03info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/230561Nicoletti, Giorgio; Saravia, Leonardo Ariel; Momo, Fernando Roberto; Amos, Maritan; Suweis, Samir; The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia; Elsevier; iScience; 26; 3; 3-2023; 1-192589-0042CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106181info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004223002584?via%3Dihubinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2026-02-26T10:28:38Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/230561instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982026-02-26 10:28:38.356CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia
title The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia
spellingShingle The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia
Nicoletti, Giorgio
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
FORESTRY
GLOBAL CHANGE
MATHEMATICAL PHYSICS
title_short The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia
title_full The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia
title_fullStr The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia
title_full_unstemmed The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia
title_sort The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Nicoletti, Giorgio
Saravia, Leonardo Ariel
Momo, Fernando Roberto
Amos, Maritan
Suweis, Samir
author Nicoletti, Giorgio
author_facet Nicoletti, Giorgio
Saravia, Leonardo Ariel
Momo, Fernando Roberto
Amos, Maritan
Suweis, Samir
author_role author
author2 Saravia, Leonardo Ariel
Momo, Fernando Roberto
Amos, Maritan
Suweis, Samir
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
FORESTRY
GLOBAL CHANGE
MATHEMATICAL PHYSICS
topic ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
FORESTRY
GLOBAL CHANGE
MATHEMATICAL PHYSICS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Between 2019 and 2020, during the country´s hottest and driest year on record, Australia experienced a dramatic bushfire season, with catastrophic ecological and environmental consequences. Several studies highlighted how such abrupt changes in fire regimes may have been in large part a consequence of climate change and other anthropogenic transformations. Here, we analyze the monthly evolution of the burned area in Australia from 2000 to 2020, obtained via satellite imaging through the MODIS platform. We find that the 2019–2020 peak is associated with signatures typically found near critical points. We introduce a modeling framework based on forest-fire models to study the properties of these emergent fire outbreaks, showing that the behavior observed during the 2019–2020 fire season matches the one of a percolation transition, where system-size outbreaks appear. Our model also highlights the existence of an absorbing phase transition that might be eventually crossed, after which the vegetation cannot recover.
Fil: Nicoletti, Giorgio. Università di Padova; Italia. Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; Italia
Fil: Saravia, Leonardo Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina
Fil: Momo, Fernando Roberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Universidad Nacional de Luján. Instituto de Ecología y Desarrollo Sustentable; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento. Instituto de Ciencias; Argentina
Fil: Amos, Maritan. Università di Padova; Italia. Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; Italia. National Biodiversity Future Center; Estados Unidos
Fil: Suweis, Samir. Università di Padova; Italia. Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare; Italia
description Between 2019 and 2020, during the country´s hottest and driest year on record, Australia experienced a dramatic bushfire season, with catastrophic ecological and environmental consequences. Several studies highlighted how such abrupt changes in fire regimes may have been in large part a consequence of climate change and other anthropogenic transformations. Here, we analyze the monthly evolution of the burned area in Australia from 2000 to 2020, obtained via satellite imaging through the MODIS platform. We find that the 2019–2020 peak is associated with signatures typically found near critical points. We introduce a modeling framework based on forest-fire models to study the properties of these emergent fire outbreaks, showing that the behavior observed during the 2019–2020 fire season matches the one of a percolation transition, where system-size outbreaks appear. Our model also highlights the existence of an absorbing phase transition that might be eventually crossed, after which the vegetation cannot recover.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2023-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/230561
Nicoletti, Giorgio; Saravia, Leonardo Ariel; Momo, Fernando Roberto; Amos, Maritan; Suweis, Samir; The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia; Elsevier; iScience; 26; 3; 3-2023; 1-19
2589-0042
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/230561
identifier_str_mv Nicoletti, Giorgio; Saravia, Leonardo Ariel; Momo, Fernando Roberto; Amos, Maritan; Suweis, Samir; The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia; Elsevier; iScience; 26; 3; 3-2023; 1-19
2589-0042
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.isci.2023.106181
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004223002584?via%3Dihub
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.176822

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