Global meteorological drought: A synthesis of current understanding with a focus on sst drivers of precipitation deficits

• Autores: Schubert, Siegfried D.; Stewart, Ronald E.; Wang, Hailan; Barlow, Mathew; Berbery, Ernesto H.; Cai, Wenju; Hoerling, Martin P.; Kanikicharla, Krishna K.; Koster, Randal D.; Lyon, Bradfield; Mariotti, Annarita; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Müller, Omar Vicente; Rodriguez Fonseca, Belen; Seager, Richard; Senevirante, Sonia I.; Zhang, Lixia; Zhou, Tianjun
• Año de publicación: 2016
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: ATM/OCEAN STRUCTURE/ PHENOMENA; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; DECADAL VARIABILITY; DROUGHT; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; PRECIPITATION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; VARIABILITY
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Drought affects virtually every region of the world, and potential shifts in its character in a changing climate are a major concern. This article presents a synthesis of current understanding of meteorological drought, with a focus on the large-scale controls on precipitation afforded by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land surface feedbacks, and radiative forcings. The synthesis is primarily based on regionally focused articles submitted to the Global Drought Information System (GDIS) collection together with new results from a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments intended to integrate those studies into a coherent view of drought worldwide. On interannual time scales, the preeminence of ENSO as a driver of meteorological drought throughout much of the Americas, eastern Asia, Australia, and the Maritime Continent is now well established, whereas in other regions (e.g., Europe, Africa, and India), the response to ENSO is more ephemeral or nonexistent. Northern Eurasia, central Europe, and central and eastern Canada stand out as regions with few SST-forced impacts on precipitation on interannual time scales. Decadal changes in SST appear to be a major factor in the occurrence of long-term drought, as highlighted by apparent impacts on precipitation of the late 1990s "climate shifts" in the Pacific and Atlantic SST. Key remaining research challenges include (i) better quantification of unforced and forced atmospheric variability as well as land-atmosphere feedbacks, (ii) better understanding of the physical basis for the leading modes of climate variability and their predictability, and (iii) quantification of the relative contributions of internal decadal SST variability and forced climate change to long-term drought.
Fil: Schubert, Siegfried D.. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados Unidos
Fil: Stewart, Ronald E.. University of Manitoba; Canadá
Fil: Wang, Hailan. Science Systems And Applications; Estados Unidos. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados Unidos
Fil: Barlow, Mathew. University of Massachusetts Lowell; Estados Unidos
Fil: Berbery, Ernesto H.. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cai, Wenju. Csiro Oceans and Atmosphere; Australia
Fil: Hoerling, Martin P.. National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration; Estados Unidos
Fil: Kanikicharla, Krishna K.. Qatar Meteorological Department; Qatar
Fil: Koster, Randal D.. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados Unidos
Fil: Lyon, Bradfield. International Research Institute For Climate And Society; Estados Unidos
Fil: Mariotti, Annarita. National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration; Estados Unidos
Fil: Mechoso, Carlos R.. University of California at Los Angeles; Estados Unidos
Fil: Müller, Omar Vicente. Universidad Nacional del Litoral; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Rodriguez Fonseca, Belen. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas; España
Fil: Seager, Richard. Columbia University; Estados Unidos
Fil: Senevirante, Sonia I.. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich; Suiza
Fil: Zhang, Lixia. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology; China. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Fil: Zhou, Tianjun. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China