Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina

Autores
Estallo, Elizabet Lilia; Ludueña Almeida, Francisco; Introini, M. V.; Zaidenberg, M.; Almiron, Walter Ricardo
Año de publicación
2015
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
This study aims to develop a forecasting model by assessing the weather variability associated with seasonal fluctuation of Aedes aegypti oviposition dynamic at a city level in Orán, in northwestern Argentina. Oviposition dynamics were assessed by weekly monitoring of 90 ovitraps in the urban area during 2005-2007. Correlations were performed between the number of eggs collected weekly and weather variables (rainfall, photoperiod, vapor pressure of water, temperature, and relative humidity) with and without time lags (1 to 6 weeks). A stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was performed with the set of meteorological variables from the first year of study with the variables in the time lags that best correlated with the oviposition. Model validation was conducted using the data from the second year of study (October 2006- 2007). Minimum temperature and rainfall were the most important variables. No eggs were found at temperatures below 10°C. The most significant time lags were 3 weeks for minimum temperature and rains, 3 weeks for water vapor pressure, and 6 weeks for maximum temperature. Aedes aegypti could be expected in Orán three weeks after rains with adequate min temperatures. The best-fit forecasting model for the combined meteorological variables explained 70 % of the variance (adj. R2 ). The correlation between Ae. aegypti oviposition observed and estimated by the forecasting model resulted in rs = 0.80 (P < 0.05). The forecasting model developed would allow prediction of increases and decreases in the Ae. aegypti oviposition activity based on meteorological data for Orán city and, according to the meteorological variables, vector activity can be predicted three or four weeks in advance.
Fil: Estallo, Elizabet Lilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
Fil: Ludueña Almeida, Francisco. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
Fil: Introini, M. V.. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; Argentina
Fil: Zaidenberg, M.. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
Fil: Almiron, Walter Ricardo. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; Argentina
Materia
AEDES AEGYPTI
OVIPOSITION DYNAMICS
WEATHER
TEMPERATURE
RAINFAL
DENGUE
FORECASTING
MODEL
ORÁN
ARGENTINA
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/3824
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/3824
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern ArgentinaEstallo, Elizabet LiliaLudueña Almeida, FranciscoIntroini, M. V.Zaidenberg, M.Almiron, Walter RicardoAEDES AEGYPTIOVIPOSITION DYNAMICSWEATHERTEMPERATURERAINFALDENGUEFORECASTINGMODELORÁNARGENTINAhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1This study aims to develop a forecasting model by assessing the weather variability associated with seasonal fluctuation of Aedes aegypti oviposition dynamic at a city level in Orán, in northwestern Argentina. Oviposition dynamics were assessed by weekly monitoring of 90 ovitraps in the urban area during 2005-2007. Correlations were performed between the number of eggs collected weekly and weather variables (rainfall, photoperiod, vapor pressure of water, temperature, and relative humidity) with and without time lags (1 to 6 weeks). A stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was performed with the set of meteorological variables from the first year of study with the variables in the time lags that best correlated with the oviposition. Model validation was conducted using the data from the second year of study (October 2006- 2007). Minimum temperature and rainfall were the most important variables. No eggs were found at temperatures below 10°C. The most significant time lags were 3 weeks for minimum temperature and rains, 3 weeks for water vapor pressure, and 6 weeks for maximum temperature. Aedes aegypti could be expected in Orán three weeks after rains with adequate min temperatures. The best-fit forecasting model for the combined meteorological variables explained 70 % of the variance (adj. R2 ). The correlation between Ae. aegypti oviposition observed and estimated by the forecasting model resulted in rs = 0.80 (P < 0.05). The forecasting model developed would allow prediction of increases and decreases in the Ae. aegypti oviposition activity based on meteorological data for Orán city and, according to the meteorological variables, vector activity can be predicted three or four weeks in advance.Fil: Estallo, Elizabet Lilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Ludueña Almeida, Francisco. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Introini, M. V.. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; ArgentinaFil: Zaidenberg, M.. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; ArgentinaFil: Almiron, Walter Ricardo. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; ArgentinaPublic Library Of Science2015-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/3824Estallo, Elizabet Lilia; Ludueña Almeida, Francisco; Introini, M. V.; Zaidenberg, M.; Almiron, Walter Ricardo; Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 10; 5-2015; 1-111932-6203enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0127820info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4439138/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-10T13:20:34Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/3824instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-10 13:20:34.569CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina
title Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina
spellingShingle Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina
Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
AEDES AEGYPTI
OVIPOSITION DYNAMICS
WEATHER
TEMPERATURE
RAINFAL
DENGUE
FORECASTING
MODEL
ORÁN
ARGENTINA
title_short Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina
title_full Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina
title_fullStr Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina
title_full_unstemmed Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina
title_sort Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
Ludueña Almeida, Francisco
Introini, M. V.
Zaidenberg, M.
Almiron, Walter Ricardo
author Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
author_facet Estallo, Elizabet Lilia
Ludueña Almeida, Francisco
Introini, M. V.
Zaidenberg, M.
Almiron, Walter Ricardo
author_role author
author2 Ludueña Almeida, Francisco
Introini, M. V.
Zaidenberg, M.
Almiron, Walter Ricardo
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv AEDES AEGYPTI
OVIPOSITION DYNAMICS
WEATHER
TEMPERATURE
RAINFAL
DENGUE
FORECASTING
MODEL
ORÁN
ARGENTINA
topic AEDES AEGYPTI
OVIPOSITION DYNAMICS
WEATHER
TEMPERATURE
RAINFAL
DENGUE
FORECASTING
MODEL
ORÁN
ARGENTINA
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv This study aims to develop a forecasting model by assessing the weather variability associated with seasonal fluctuation of Aedes aegypti oviposition dynamic at a city level in Orán, in northwestern Argentina. Oviposition dynamics were assessed by weekly monitoring of 90 ovitraps in the urban area during 2005-2007. Correlations were performed between the number of eggs collected weekly and weather variables (rainfall, photoperiod, vapor pressure of water, temperature, and relative humidity) with and without time lags (1 to 6 weeks). A stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was performed with the set of meteorological variables from the first year of study with the variables in the time lags that best correlated with the oviposition. Model validation was conducted using the data from the second year of study (October 2006- 2007). Minimum temperature and rainfall were the most important variables. No eggs were found at temperatures below 10°C. The most significant time lags were 3 weeks for minimum temperature and rains, 3 weeks for water vapor pressure, and 6 weeks for maximum temperature. Aedes aegypti could be expected in Orán three weeks after rains with adequate min temperatures. The best-fit forecasting model for the combined meteorological variables explained 70 % of the variance (adj. R2 ). The correlation between Ae. aegypti oviposition observed and estimated by the forecasting model resulted in rs = 0.80 (P < 0.05). The forecasting model developed would allow prediction of increases and decreases in the Ae. aegypti oviposition activity based on meteorological data for Orán city and, according to the meteorological variables, vector activity can be predicted three or four weeks in advance.
Fil: Estallo, Elizabet Lilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
Fil: Ludueña Almeida, Francisco. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
Fil: Introini, M. V.. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; Argentina
Fil: Zaidenberg, M.. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas; Argentina
Fil: Almiron, Walter Ricardo. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; Argentina
description This study aims to develop a forecasting model by assessing the weather variability associated with seasonal fluctuation of Aedes aegypti oviposition dynamic at a city level in Orán, in northwestern Argentina. Oviposition dynamics were assessed by weekly monitoring of 90 ovitraps in the urban area during 2005-2007. Correlations were performed between the number of eggs collected weekly and weather variables (rainfall, photoperiod, vapor pressure of water, temperature, and relative humidity) with and without time lags (1 to 6 weeks). A stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was performed with the set of meteorological variables from the first year of study with the variables in the time lags that best correlated with the oviposition. Model validation was conducted using the data from the second year of study (October 2006- 2007). Minimum temperature and rainfall were the most important variables. No eggs were found at temperatures below 10°C. The most significant time lags were 3 weeks for minimum temperature and rains, 3 weeks for water vapor pressure, and 6 weeks for maximum temperature. Aedes aegypti could be expected in Orán three weeks after rains with adequate min temperatures. The best-fit forecasting model for the combined meteorological variables explained 70 % of the variance (adj. R2 ). The correlation between Ae. aegypti oviposition observed and estimated by the forecasting model resulted in rs = 0.80 (P < 0.05). The forecasting model developed would allow prediction of increases and decreases in the Ae. aegypti oviposition activity based on meteorological data for Orán city and, according to the meteorological variables, vector activity can be predicted three or four weeks in advance.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/3824
Estallo, Elizabet Lilia; Ludueña Almeida, Francisco; Introini, M. V.; Zaidenberg, M.; Almiron, Walter Ricardo; Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 10; 5-2015; 1-11
1932-6203
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/3824
identifier_str_mv Estallo, Elizabet Lilia; Ludueña Almeida, Francisco; Introini, M. V.; Zaidenberg, M.; Almiron, Walter Ricardo; Weather variability associated with Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Dengue vector) oviposition dynamics in Northwestern Argentina; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 10; 5-2015; 1-11
1932-6203
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0127820
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4439138/
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library Of Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library Of Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 12.48226

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