Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: A CORDEX-based study

• Autores: Spinoni, Jonathan; Barbosa, Paulo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Cassano, John; Cavazos, Tereza; Cescatti, Alessandro; Christensen, Jens H.; Christensen, Ole; Coppola, Erika; Evans, Jason P.; Forzieri, Giovanni; Geyer, Beate; Giorgi, Filippo; Jacob, Daniela; Katzfey, Jack; Koenigk, Torben; Laprise, René; Lennard, Christopher J.; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Li, Delei; Llopart, Marta; McCormick, Niall; Naumann, Gustavo; Nikulin, Grigory; Ozturk, Tugba; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio; Solman, Silvina Alicia; Syktus, Jozef; Tangang, Fredolin; Teichmann, Claas; Vautard, Robert; Vogt, Jürgen V.; Winger, Katja; Zittis, George; Dosio, Alessandro
• Año de publicación: 2021
• Idioma: inglés
• Tipo de recurso: artículo
• Materia: CLIMATE PROJECTIONS; CORDEX; DROUGHT; GLOBAL WARMING LEVELS; LAND-USE; POPULATION; SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS
• Institución: Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5°C to 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the SSP3 at GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981–2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 at GWL4, approximately 2 × 106 km2 of forests and croplands (respectively, 6% and 11%) and 1.5 × 106 km2 of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17 × 106 km2 of forests (49%), 6 × 106 km2 of pastures (78%) and 12 × 106 km2 of croplands (67%), being mid-latitudes the most affected. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
Fil: Spinoni, Jonathan. No especifíca;
Fil: Barbosa, Paulo. No especifíca;
Fil: Bucchignani, Edoardo. Centro Euro Mediterraneo Sui Cambiamenti Climatici.; Italia
Fil: Cassano, John. University of Colorado; Estados Unidos
Fil: Cavazos, Tereza. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia de Mexico. Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada Baja California.; México
Fil: Cescatti, Alessandro. No especifíca;
Fil: Christensen, Jens H.. Universidad de Copenhagen; Dinamarca
Fil: Christensen, Ole. Universidad de Copenhagen; Dinamarca
Fil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia
Fil: Evans, Jason P.. University of New South Wales; Australia
Fil: Forzieri, Giovanni. No especifíca;
Fil: Geyer, Beate. No especifíca;
Fil: Giorgi, Filippo. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia
Fil: Jacob, Daniela. No especifíca;
Fil: Katzfey, Jack. No especifíca;
Fil: Koenigk, Torben. Swedish Meteorological And Hydrological Institute; Suecia
Fil: Laprise, René. Université du Québec a Montreal; Canadá
Fil: Lennard, Christopher J.. University of Cape Town; Sudáfrica
Fil: Kurnaz, M. Levent. Bogazici University; Turquía
Fil: Li, Delei. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China
Fil: Llopart, Marta. Universidade de Sao Paulo; Brasil
Fil: McCormick, Niall. No especifíca;
Fil: Naumann, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina
Fil: Nikulin, Grigory. Swedish Meteorological And Hydrological Institute; Suecia
Fil: Ozturk, Tugba. No especifíca;
Fil: Panitz, Hans-Jürgen. No especifíca;
Fil: Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio. Universidade de Sao Paulo; Brasil
Fil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina
Fil: Syktus, Jozef. The University of Queensland; Australia
Fil: Tangang, Fredolin. National University Of Malaisya; Malasia
Fil: Teichmann, Claas. No especifíca;
Fil: Vautard, Robert. National Centre For Scientific Research; Francia
Fil: Vogt, Jürgen V.. No especifíca;
Fil: Winger, Katja. Université du Québec a Montreal; Canadá
Fil: Zittis, George. The Cyprus Institute, Climate And Atmospheric Research; Chipre
Fil: Dosio, Alessandro. No especifíca;