Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia

Autores
del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo; Fernandez, Eduardo; Brendel, Andrea Soledad; Whitney, Cory; Campoy, José A.; Luedeling, Eike
Año de publicación
2020
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.
Fil: del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Sede Andina; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; Argentina
Fil: Fernandez, Eduardo. Universitat Bonn; Alemania
Fil: Brendel, Andrea Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; Argentina
Fil: Whitney, Cory. Universitat Bonn; Alemania
Fil: Campoy, José A.. Max Planck Institute Of Biochemistry.; Alemania
Fil: Luedeling, Eike. Universitat Bonn; Alemania
Materia
CHILL MODELS
CHILL REQUIREMENT
HEAT REQUIREMENT
PRUNUS SP.
SPRING FROST RISK
TEMPERATE TREES
WARM WINTERS
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/138247
Acceder
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oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/138247
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagoniadel Barrio, Ricardo AlfredoFernandez, EduardoBrendel, Andrea SoledadWhitney, CoryCampoy, José A.Luedeling, EikeCHILL MODELSCHILL REQUIREMENTHEAT REQUIREMENTPRUNUS SP.SPRING FROST RISKTEMPERATE TREESWARM WINTERShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/4.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.Fil: del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Sede Andina; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Fernandez, Eduardo. Universitat Bonn; AlemaniaFil: Brendel, Andrea Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Whitney, Cory. Universitat Bonn; AlemaniaFil: Campoy, José A.. Max Planck Institute Of Biochemistry.; AlemaniaFil: Luedeling, Eike. Universitat Bonn; AlemaniaJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd2020-05-13info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/138247del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo; Fernandez, Eduardo; Brendel, Andrea Soledad; Whitney, Cory; Campoy, José A.; et al.; Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 41; 1; 13-5-2020; 726-7420899-8418CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6649info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.6649info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-10-22T11:05:19Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/138247instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-10-22 11:05:19.66CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
title Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
spellingShingle Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo
CHILL MODELS
CHILL REQUIREMENT
HEAT REQUIREMENT
PRUNUS SP.
SPRING FROST RISK
TEMPERATE TREES
WARM WINTERS
title_short Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
title_full Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
title_fullStr Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
title_full_unstemmed Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
title_sort Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo
Fernandez, Eduardo
Brendel, Andrea Soledad
Whitney, Cory
Campoy, José A.
Luedeling, Eike
author del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo
author_facet del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo
Fernandez, Eduardo
Brendel, Andrea Soledad
Whitney, Cory
Campoy, José A.
Luedeling, Eike
author_role author
author2 Fernandez, Eduardo
Brendel, Andrea Soledad
Whitney, Cory
Campoy, José A.
Luedeling, Eike
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv CHILL MODELS
CHILL REQUIREMENT
HEAT REQUIREMENT
PRUNUS SP.
SPRING FROST RISK
TEMPERATE TREES
WARM WINTERS
topic CHILL MODELS
CHILL REQUIREMENT
HEAT REQUIREMENT
PRUNUS SP.
SPRING FROST RISK
TEMPERATE TREES
WARM WINTERS
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4.1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.
Fil: del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Sede Andina; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; Argentina
Fil: Fernandez, Eduardo. Universitat Bonn; Alemania
Fil: Brendel, Andrea Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; Argentina
Fil: Whitney, Cory. Universitat Bonn; Alemania
Fil: Campoy, José A.. Max Planck Institute Of Biochemistry.; Alemania
Fil: Luedeling, Eike. Universitat Bonn; Alemania
description Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-13
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/138247
del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo; Fernandez, Eduardo; Brendel, Andrea Soledad; Whitney, Cory; Campoy, José A.; et al.; Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 41; 1; 13-5-2020; 726-742
0899-8418
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/138247
identifier_str_mv del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo; Fernandez, Eduardo; Brendel, Andrea Soledad; Whitney, Cory; Campoy, José A.; et al.; Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 41; 1; 13-5-2020; 726-742
0899-8418
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6649
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.6649
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Ltd
publisher.none.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Ltd
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 12.982451

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