Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
- Autores
- del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo; Fernandez, Eduardo; Brendel, Andrea Soledad; Whitney, Cory; Campoy, José A.; Luedeling, Eike
- Año de publicación
- 2020
- Idioma
- inglés
- Tipo de recurso
- artículo
- Estado
- versión publicada
- Descripción
- Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.
Fil: del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Sede Andina; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; Argentina
Fil: Fernandez, Eduardo. Universitat Bonn; Alemania
Fil: Brendel, Andrea Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; Argentina
Fil: Whitney, Cory. Universitat Bonn; Alemania
Fil: Campoy, José A.. Max Planck Institute Of Biochemistry.; Alemania
Fil: Luedeling, Eike. Universitat Bonn; Alemania - Materia
-
CHILL MODELS
CHILL REQUIREMENT
HEAT REQUIREMENT
PRUNUS SP.
SPRING FROST RISK
TEMPERATE TREES
WARM WINTERS - Nivel de accesibilidad
- acceso abierto
- Condiciones de uso
- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
- Repositorio
- Institución
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
- OAI Identificador
- oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/138247
Ver los metadatos del registro completo
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Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagoniadel Barrio, Ricardo AlfredoFernandez, EduardoBrendel, Andrea SoledadWhitney, CoryCampoy, José A.Luedeling, EikeCHILL MODELSCHILL REQUIREMENTHEAT REQUIREMENTPRUNUS SP.SPRING FROST RISKTEMPERATE TREESWARM WINTERShttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/4.1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.Fil: del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Sede Andina; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Fernandez, Eduardo. Universitat Bonn; AlemaniaFil: Brendel, Andrea Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Whitney, Cory. Universitat Bonn; AlemaniaFil: Campoy, José A.. Max Planck Institute Of Biochemistry.; AlemaniaFil: Luedeling, Eike. Universitat Bonn; AlemaniaJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd2020-05-13info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/138247del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo; Fernandez, Eduardo; Brendel, Andrea Soledad; Whitney, Cory; Campoy, José A.; et al.; Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 41; 1; 13-5-2020; 726-7420899-8418CONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6649info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.6649info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:37:10Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/138247instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:37:10.865CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse |
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia |
title |
Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia |
spellingShingle |
Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo CHILL MODELS CHILL REQUIREMENT HEAT REQUIREMENT PRUNUS SP. SPRING FROST RISK TEMPERATE TREES WARM WINTERS |
title_short |
Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia |
title_full |
Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia |
title_fullStr |
Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia |
title_sort |
Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia |
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo Fernandez, Eduardo Brendel, Andrea Soledad Whitney, Cory Campoy, José A. Luedeling, Eike |
author |
del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo |
author_facet |
del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo Fernandez, Eduardo Brendel, Andrea Soledad Whitney, Cory Campoy, José A. Luedeling, Eike |
author_role |
author |
author2 |
Fernandez, Eduardo Brendel, Andrea Soledad Whitney, Cory Campoy, José A. Luedeling, Eike |
author2_role |
author author author author author |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
CHILL MODELS CHILL REQUIREMENT HEAT REQUIREMENT PRUNUS SP. SPRING FROST RISK TEMPERATE TREES WARM WINTERS |
topic |
CHILL MODELS CHILL REQUIREMENT HEAT REQUIREMENT PRUNUS SP. SPRING FROST RISK TEMPERATE TREES WARM WINTERS |
purl_subject.fl_str_mv |
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4.1 https://purl.org/becyt/ford/4 |
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv |
Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges. Fil: del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Sede Andina; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; Argentina Fil: Fernandez, Eduardo. Universitat Bonn; Alemania Fil: Brendel, Andrea Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Instituto Argentino de Oceanografía; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; Argentina Fil: Whitney, Cory. Universitat Bonn; Alemania Fil: Campoy, José A.. Max Planck Institute Of Biochemistry.; Alemania Fil: Luedeling, Eike. Universitat Bonn; Alemania |
description |
Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-05-13 |
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo |
format |
article |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/138247 del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo; Fernandez, Eduardo; Brendel, Andrea Soledad; Whitney, Cory; Campoy, José A.; et al.; Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 41; 1; 13-5-2020; 726-742 0899-8418 CONICET Digital CONICET |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11336/138247 |
identifier_str_mv |
del Barrio, Ricardo Alfredo; Fernandez, Eduardo; Brendel, Andrea Soledad; Whitney, Cory; Campoy, José A.; et al.; Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia; John Wiley & Sons Ltd; International Journal of Climatology; 41; 1; 13-5-2020; 726-742 0899-8418 CONICET Digital CONICET |
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6649 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.6649 |
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/ |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf application/pdf |
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET) instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
reponame_str |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
collection |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) |
instname_str |
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar |
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1844613170026512384 |
score |
13.070432 |