Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile

Autores
Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo; Colchero, Fernando
Año de publicación
2014
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2 , with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.
Fil: Zubillaga, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; Argentina
Fil: Skewes, Oscar. Universidad de Concepción; Chile
Fil: Soto, Nicolás. Departamento de Protección de Recursos Naturales Servicio Agrícola Ganadero; Chile
Fil: Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; Argentina
Fil: Colchero, Fernando. University Of Southern Denmark; Dinamarca
Materia
GUANACO
POPULATION REGULATION
WEATHER
DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/10703
Acceder
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repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from ChileZubillaga, MaríaSkewes, OscarSoto, NicolásRabinovich, Jorge EduardoColchero, FernandoGUANACOPOPULATION REGULATIONWEATHERDEMOGRAPHIC MODELhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2 , with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.Fil: Zubillaga, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; ArgentinaFil: Skewes, Oscar. Universidad de Concepción; ChileFil: Soto, Nicolás. Departamento de Protección de Recursos Naturales Servicio Agrícola Ganadero; ChileFil: Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; ArgentinaFil: Colchero, Fernando. University Of Southern Denmark; DinamarcaPublic Library Of Science2014-12info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/10703Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo; Colchero, Fernando; Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 9; 12; 12-2014; 1-17; e1153071932-6203enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0115307info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0115307info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4267833/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T09:37:44Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/10703instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 09:37:44.442CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile
title Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile
spellingShingle Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile
Zubillaga, María
GUANACO
POPULATION REGULATION
WEATHER
DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL
title_short Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile
title_full Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile
title_fullStr Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile
title_full_unstemmed Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile
title_sort Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Zubillaga, María
Skewes, Oscar
Soto, Nicolás
Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo
Colchero, Fernando
author Zubillaga, María
author_facet Zubillaga, María
Skewes, Oscar
Soto, Nicolás
Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo
Colchero, Fernando
author_role author
author2 Skewes, Oscar
Soto, Nicolás
Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo
Colchero, Fernando
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv GUANACO
POPULATION REGULATION
WEATHER
DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL
topic GUANACO
POPULATION REGULATION
WEATHER
DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2 , with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.
Fil: Zubillaga, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; Argentina
Fil: Skewes, Oscar. Universidad de Concepción; Chile
Fil: Soto, Nicolás. Departamento de Protección de Recursos Naturales Servicio Agrícola Ganadero; Chile
Fil: Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico la Plata. Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (i); Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo; Argentina
Fil: Colchero, Fernando. University Of Southern Denmark; Dinamarca
description Understanding the mechanisms that drive population dynamics is fundamental for management of wild populations. The guanaco (Lama guanicoe) is one of two wild camelid species in South America. We evaluated the effects of density dependence and weather variables on population regulation based on a time series of 36 years of population sampling of guanacos in Tierra del Fuego, Chile. The population density varied between 2.7 and 30.7 guanaco/km2 , with an apparent monotonic growth during the first 25 years; however, in the last 10 years the population has shown large fluctuations, suggesting that it might have reached its carrying capacity. We used a Bayesian state-space framework and model selection to determine the effect of density and environmental variables on guanaco population dynamics. Our results show that the population is under density dependent regulation and that it is currently fluctuating around an average carrying capacity of 45,000 guanacos. We also found a significant positive effect of previous winter temperature while sheep density has a strong negative effect on the guanaco population growth. We conclude that there are significant density dependent processes and that climate as well as competition with domestic species have important effects determining the population size of guanacos, with important implications for management and conservation.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/10703
Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo; Colchero, Fernando; Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 9; 12; 12-2014; 1-17; e115307
1932-6203
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/10703
identifier_str_mv Zubillaga, María; Skewes, Oscar; Soto, Nicolás; Rabinovich, Jorge Eduardo; Colchero, Fernando; Bayesian inference on the effect of density dependence and weather on a guanaco population from Chile; Public Library Of Science; Plos One; 9; 12; 12-2014; 1-17; e115307
1932-6203
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0115307
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0115307
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4267833/
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library Of Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library Of Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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