Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains

Autores
Nowak, Larissa; Schleuning, Matthias; Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Dehling, D. Matthias; Fritz, Susanne A.; Kissling, W. Daniel; Mueller, Thomas; Neuschulz, Eike Lena; Pigot, Alex L.; Sorensen, Marjorie C.; Donoso, Isabel
Año de publicación
2022
Idioma
inglés
Tipo de recurso
artículo
Estado
versión publicada
Descripción
Aim: Climate change causes shifts in species ranges globally. Terrestrial plant species often lag behind temperature shifts, and it is unclear to what extent animal-dispersed plants can track climate change. Here, we estimate the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track future temperature change on a tropical mountain. Location: Tropical elevational gradient (500–3500 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú biosphere reserve, Peru. Time period: From 1960–1990 to 2061–2080. Taxa: Fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores. Methods: Using simulations based on the functional traits of avian frugivores and fruiting plants, we quantified the number of long-distance dispersal (LDD) events that woody plant species would require to track projected temperature shifts on a tropical mountain by the year 2070 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5]. We applied this approach to 343 bird-dispersed woody plant species. Results: Our simulations revealed that bird-dispersed plants differed in their climate-tracking ability, with large-fruited and canopy plants exhibiting a higher climate-tracking ability. Our simulations also suggested that even under scenarios of strong and intermediate mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and 4.5), sufficient upslope dispersal would require several LDD events by 2070, which is unlikely for the majority of woody plant species. Furthermore, the ability of plant species to track future changes in temperature increased in simulations with a low degree of trait matching between plants and birds, suggesting that plants in generalized seed-dispersal systems might be more resilient to climate change. Main conclusion: Our study illustrates how the functional traits of plants and animals can inform predictive models of species dispersal and range shifts under climate change and suggests that the biodiversity of tropical mountain ecosystems is highly vulnerable to future warming. The increasing availability of functional trait data for plants and animals globally will allow parameterization of similar models for many other seed-dispersal systems.
Fil: Nowak, Larissa. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Schleuning, Matthias. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina
Fil: Böhning-Gaese, Katrin. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania
Fil: Dehling, D. Matthias. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza. Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Noruega
Fil: Fritz, Susanne A.. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Kissling, W. Daniel. Institute For Biodiversity And Ecosystem Dynamics - Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Fil: Mueller, Thomas. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Neuschulz, Eike Lena. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Pigot, Alex L.. University College London; Estados Unidos
Fil: Sorensen, Marjorie C.. University of Guelph; Canadá
Fil: Donoso, Isabel. Institut Mediterrani D'estudis Avançats; España. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Materia
BIODIVERSITY PROJECTIONS
BIOTIC INTERACTIONS
FUNCTIONAL TRAITS
GLOBAL WARMING
LONG-DISTANCE DISPERSAL
RANGE SHIFTS
TRAIT-BASED SIMULATION
Nivel de accesibilidad
acceso abierto
Condiciones de uso
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
Repositorio
CONICET Digital (CONICET)
Institución
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
OAI Identificador
oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/212958
Acceder
id CONICETDig_0f88d88e45cb762148aa55216777536d
oai_identifier_str oai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/212958
network_acronym_str CONICETDig
repository_id_str 3498
network_name_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
spelling Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountainsNowak, LarissaSchleuning, MatthiasBender, Irene Maria AntoinettaBöhning-Gaese, KatrinDehling, D. MatthiasFritz, Susanne A.Kissling, W. DanielMueller, ThomasNeuschulz, Eike LenaPigot, Alex L.Sorensen, Marjorie C.Donoso, IsabelBIODIVERSITY PROJECTIONSBIOTIC INTERACTIONSFUNCTIONAL TRAITSGLOBAL WARMINGLONG-DISTANCE DISPERSALRANGE SHIFTSTRAIT-BASED SIMULATIONhttps://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1Aim: Climate change causes shifts in species ranges globally. Terrestrial plant species often lag behind temperature shifts, and it is unclear to what extent animal-dispersed plants can track climate change. Here, we estimate the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track future temperature change on a tropical mountain. Location: Tropical elevational gradient (500–3500 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú biosphere reserve, Peru. Time period: From 1960–1990 to 2061–2080. Taxa: Fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores. Methods: Using simulations based on the functional traits of avian frugivores and fruiting plants, we quantified the number of long-distance dispersal (LDD) events that woody plant species would require to track projected temperature shifts on a tropical mountain by the year 2070 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5]. We applied this approach to 343 bird-dispersed woody plant species. Results: Our simulations revealed that bird-dispersed plants differed in their climate-tracking ability, with large-fruited and canopy plants exhibiting a higher climate-tracking ability. Our simulations also suggested that even under scenarios of strong and intermediate mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and 4.5), sufficient upslope dispersal would require several LDD events by 2070, which is unlikely for the majority of woody plant species. Furthermore, the ability of plant species to track future changes in temperature increased in simulations with a low degree of trait matching between plants and birds, suggesting that plants in generalized seed-dispersal systems might be more resilient to climate change. Main conclusion: Our study illustrates how the functional traits of plants and animals can inform predictive models of species dispersal and range shifts under climate change and suggests that the biodiversity of tropical mountain ecosystems is highly vulnerable to future warming. The increasing availability of functional trait data for plants and animals globally will allow parameterization of similar models for many other seed-dispersal systems.Fil: Nowak, Larissa. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaFil: Schleuning, Matthias. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaFil: Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Böhning-Gaese, Katrin. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Dehling, D. Matthias. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza. Norwegian University of Life Sciences; NoruegaFil: Fritz, Susanne A.. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaFil: Kissling, W. Daniel. Institute For Biodiversity And Ecosystem Dynamics - Amsterdam; Países BajosFil: Mueller, Thomas. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaFil: Neuschulz, Eike Lena. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaFil: Pigot, Alex L.. University College London; Estados UnidosFil: Sorensen, Marjorie C.. University of Guelph; CanadáFil: Donoso, Isabel. Institut Mediterrani D'estudis Avançats; España. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; AlemaniaWiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc2022-05info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:ar-repo/semantics/articuloapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/11336/212958Nowak, Larissa; Schleuning, Matthias; Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Dehling, D. Matthias; et al.; Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains; Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc; Global Ecology and Biogeography; 31; 5; 5-2022; 848-8601466-822XCONICET DigitalCONICETenginfo:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13456info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/geb.13456info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas2025-09-29T10:23:41Zoai:ri.conicet.gov.ar:11336/212958instacron:CONICETInstitucionalhttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/Organismo científico-tecnológicoNo correspondehttp://ri.conicet.gov.ar/oai/requestdasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.arArgentinaNo correspondeNo correspondeNo correspondeopendoar:34982025-09-29 10:23:41.887CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicasfalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains
title Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains
spellingShingle Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains
Nowak, Larissa
BIODIVERSITY PROJECTIONS
BIOTIC INTERACTIONS
FUNCTIONAL TRAITS
GLOBAL WARMING
LONG-DISTANCE DISPERSAL
RANGE SHIFTS
TRAIT-BASED SIMULATION
title_short Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains
title_full Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains
title_fullStr Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains
title_full_unstemmed Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains
title_sort Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Nowak, Larissa
Schleuning, Matthias
Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta
Böhning-Gaese, Katrin
Dehling, D. Matthias
Fritz, Susanne A.
Kissling, W. Daniel
Mueller, Thomas
Neuschulz, Eike Lena
Pigot, Alex L.
Sorensen, Marjorie C.
Donoso, Isabel
author Nowak, Larissa
author_facet Nowak, Larissa
Schleuning, Matthias
Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta
Böhning-Gaese, Katrin
Dehling, D. Matthias
Fritz, Susanne A.
Kissling, W. Daniel
Mueller, Thomas
Neuschulz, Eike Lena
Pigot, Alex L.
Sorensen, Marjorie C.
Donoso, Isabel
author_role author
author2 Schleuning, Matthias
Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta
Böhning-Gaese, Katrin
Dehling, D. Matthias
Fritz, Susanne A.
Kissling, W. Daniel
Mueller, Thomas
Neuschulz, Eike Lena
Pigot, Alex L.
Sorensen, Marjorie C.
Donoso, Isabel
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv BIODIVERSITY PROJECTIONS
BIOTIC INTERACTIONS
FUNCTIONAL TRAITS
GLOBAL WARMING
LONG-DISTANCE DISPERSAL
RANGE SHIFTS
TRAIT-BASED SIMULATION
topic BIODIVERSITY PROJECTIONS
BIOTIC INTERACTIONS
FUNCTIONAL TRAITS
GLOBAL WARMING
LONG-DISTANCE DISPERSAL
RANGE SHIFTS
TRAIT-BASED SIMULATION
purl_subject.fl_str_mv https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.6
https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1
dc.description.none.fl_txt_mv Aim: Climate change causes shifts in species ranges globally. Terrestrial plant species often lag behind temperature shifts, and it is unclear to what extent animal-dispersed plants can track climate change. Here, we estimate the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track future temperature change on a tropical mountain. Location: Tropical elevational gradient (500–3500 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú biosphere reserve, Peru. Time period: From 1960–1990 to 2061–2080. Taxa: Fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores. Methods: Using simulations based on the functional traits of avian frugivores and fruiting plants, we quantified the number of long-distance dispersal (LDD) events that woody plant species would require to track projected temperature shifts on a tropical mountain by the year 2070 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5]. We applied this approach to 343 bird-dispersed woody plant species. Results: Our simulations revealed that bird-dispersed plants differed in their climate-tracking ability, with large-fruited and canopy plants exhibiting a higher climate-tracking ability. Our simulations also suggested that even under scenarios of strong and intermediate mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and 4.5), sufficient upslope dispersal would require several LDD events by 2070, which is unlikely for the majority of woody plant species. Furthermore, the ability of plant species to track future changes in temperature increased in simulations with a low degree of trait matching between plants and birds, suggesting that plants in generalized seed-dispersal systems might be more resilient to climate change. Main conclusion: Our study illustrates how the functional traits of plants and animals can inform predictive models of species dispersal and range shifts under climate change and suggests that the biodiversity of tropical mountain ecosystems is highly vulnerable to future warming. The increasing availability of functional trait data for plants and animals globally will allow parameterization of similar models for many other seed-dispersal systems.
Fil: Nowak, Larissa. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Schleuning, Matthias. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina
Fil: Böhning-Gaese, Katrin. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania
Fil: Dehling, D. Matthias. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research; Suiza. Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Noruega
Fil: Fritz, Susanne A.. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Kissling, W. Daniel. Institute For Biodiversity And Ecosystem Dynamics - Amsterdam; Países Bajos
Fil: Mueller, Thomas. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; Alemania. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Neuschulz, Eike Lena. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
Fil: Pigot, Alex L.. University College London; Estados Unidos
Fil: Sorensen, Marjorie C.. University of Guelph; Canadá
Fil: Donoso, Isabel. Institut Mediterrani D'estudis Avançats; España. Senckenberg Biodiversity And Climate Research Centre; Alemania
description Aim: Climate change causes shifts in species ranges globally. Terrestrial plant species often lag behind temperature shifts, and it is unclear to what extent animal-dispersed plants can track climate change. Here, we estimate the ability of bird-dispersed plant species to track future temperature change on a tropical mountain. Location: Tropical elevational gradient (500–3500 m.a.s.l.) in the Manú biosphere reserve, Peru. Time period: From 1960–1990 to 2061–2080. Taxa: Fleshy-fruited plants and avian frugivores. Methods: Using simulations based on the functional traits of avian frugivores and fruiting plants, we quantified the number of long-distance dispersal (LDD) events that woody plant species would require to track projected temperature shifts on a tropical mountain by the year 2070 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5]. We applied this approach to 343 bird-dispersed woody plant species. Results: Our simulations revealed that bird-dispersed plants differed in their climate-tracking ability, with large-fruited and canopy plants exhibiting a higher climate-tracking ability. Our simulations also suggested that even under scenarios of strong and intermediate mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 2.6 and 4.5), sufficient upslope dispersal would require several LDD events by 2070, which is unlikely for the majority of woody plant species. Furthermore, the ability of plant species to track future changes in temperature increased in simulations with a low degree of trait matching between plants and birds, suggesting that plants in generalized seed-dispersal systems might be more resilient to climate change. Main conclusion: Our study illustrates how the functional traits of plants and animals can inform predictive models of species dispersal and range shifts under climate change and suggests that the biodiversity of tropical mountain ecosystems is highly vulnerable to future warming. The increasing availability of functional trait data for plants and animals globally will allow parameterization of similar models for many other seed-dispersal systems.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022-05
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
info:ar-repo/semantics/articulo
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11336/212958
Nowak, Larissa; Schleuning, Matthias; Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Dehling, D. Matthias; et al.; Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains; Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc; Global Ecology and Biogeography; 31; 5; 5-2022; 848-860
1466-822X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
url http://hdl.handle.net/11336/212958
identifier_str_mv Nowak, Larissa; Schleuning, Matthias; Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Dehling, D. Matthias; et al.; Avian seed dispersal may be insufficient for plants to track future temperature change on tropical mountains; Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc; Global Ecology and Biogeography; 31; 5; 5-2022; 848-860
1466-822X
CONICET Digital
CONICET
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/url/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13456
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/geb.13456
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar/
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley Blackwell Publishing, Inc
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname:Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
reponame_str CONICET Digital (CONICET)
collection CONICET Digital (CONICET)
instname_str Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.name.fl_str_mv CONICET Digital (CONICET) - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas
repository.mail.fl_str_mv dasensio@conicet.gov.ar; lcarlino@conicet.gov.ar
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score 13.070432

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